Now let's look at North Carolina -
7.37M registered voters
- Split is 2.618988M Dem, 2.222327M GOP and 2.449603M Indie
3.62M early in person votes
.9565 mailed votes
Total voted = 4.5765M voted already
Of ballots already cast - 1.694831M are Dems, 1.438047 are GOPs and 1.374183 are Indies.
I'll give Biden 5% of the GOP vote and 98% of the Dem vote and give him 51% of the Indies.
Right now that would put totals at 2,982,134 for Biden and 2,600,346 for Trump
Total available votes remaining = 2.7935M
Again assume 70% of remaining GOP shows up, 30% of Dems and 30% of Indies. So 1,148,869 votes left. Same splits as above on election day. You get 463,912 for Biden and 685,178 for Trump
Sum total = Biden 3,446,046 and Trump 3,285,524.
I'm trying to be liberal towards Trump on election day turnout with these assumptions and he still comes up short. Of course this presumes I have a clue how indie voters are likely to roll.
To be clear, so far the exact same percentage of registered Dems and registered GOPs have voted. African Americans have voted 58% of their registered. Whites have voted 64% of theirs. Women 63% of their registers have voted. Men 59%. Still some squish in those numbers - will African Americans turn out tomorrow in bigger numbers? There are over 600,000 more registered women voters in NC than men too.