2021-22 Men's College Basketball Season - UNC v. Kansas for the Natty

[cville deac]

#5 playing the winner of the #12-13 game looks good right now.
Pitt vs. BC.
I'll take it.

Yeah, beating State and BC/Pitt should net us a 10 or better. And there is no reason we can't win the ACC tourney this year. Duke has been coasting, and no other team is that good.

 

[deacon14]

And there is no reason we can't win the ACC tourney this year. Duke has been coasting, and no other team is that good.

Alondes and Jake playing nearly 35-38 minutes per game in competitive games is going to make winning games on back to back days tough, particularly if we end up as the 5 seed and have to play an extra game.

 

[thatguy2016]

No, their margin pulled them up this week. In simple terms, you beat the hell out of the spread and you move up a lot. Can’t think of NET or KP or Torvik in simple terms of wins and losses. It’s how you play. Same reason that Wisconsin and Providence fans have bitched all year. They win a ton of very close games.

putting a finer point on this, in simple terms, consider the following two sets of outcomes for WF over its last two regular-season games

A. Beat UL by 30, lose to NC State by 1
B. Beat UL by 1, beat NC State by 1

KP prefers (and rewards) Scenario A because in aggregate, the team performed to expectations (30 points better than those two teams), even though it lost a game.

Along those same lines, KP likes UNC's 9-point OT win over Syracuse more than it would have liked a 1-point regulation win.

 

[DeacDaddy]

Alondes and Jake playing nearly 35-38 minutes per game in competitive games is going to make winning games on back to back days tough, particularly if we end up as the 5 seed and have to play an extra game.

Yes but again we will have had a week off.

 

[thatguy2016]

Yes but again we will have had a week off.

the impact of which will be more than negated by playing on Wednesday while four teams rest

 

[Deaconblue]

Alondes and Jake playing nearly 35-38 minutes per game in competitive games is going to make winning games on back to back days tough, particularly if we end up as the 5 seed and have to play an extra game.

Perhaps that is why Hildreth and Marsh are seeing more minutes. Cam to give Manman more rest. Perhaps we see a twin towers of Walton and Marsh to give Jake some more rest.

 

[deacon14]

Perhaps that is why Hildreth and Marsh are seeing more minutes. Cam to give Manman more rest. Perhaps we see a twin towers of Walton and Marsh to give Jake some more rest.

I mean if we are really talking about winning the ACCT, the best path I see is blowout wins in the Wednesday and Thursday games to get all of the starters some rest. But even in blowouts Forbes hasn't really thrown the bench out there much until late in the second half.

 

[Deac83]

No, their margin pulled them up this week. In simple terms, you beat the hell out of the spread and you move up a lot. Can’t think of NET or KP or Torvik in simple terms of wins and losses. It’s how you play. Same reason that Wisconsin and Providence fans have bitched all year. They win a ton of very close games.

Just to be clear I'm looking at the movements in NET.

Before Saturday ND was 57, we were 42.

ND beats quad 4 GT by 34 and moves up to 46
Wake beats quad 3 'ville by 22 and drops to 43.
UNC beats quad 3 State by 10 and moved up one spot (40?)

Since beating KY was already factored in, while ND was sitting aroud in the 60's of the NET entering Feb this is what ND has done in Feb.

W @ Miami 68-64
W @ State 69-57
W 'ville 63.57
W @ Clem 76-61
W BC 99-95 (ot)
L @ Wake 74-79
W 'cuse 79-69
W GT 90-56

What you are saying is going 6-1 doesn't move the needle 9-10 spots but a blow out of quad 4 GT does?

And ND does have a quad 4 loss.

 

[deacon14]

Just to be clear I'm looking at the movements in NET.

Before Saturday ND was 57, we were 42.

ND beats quad 4 GT by 34 and moves up to 46
Wake beats quad 3 'ville by 22 and drops to 43.
UNC beats quad 3 State by 10 and moved up one spot (40?)

Since beating KY was already factored in, while ND was sitting aroud in the 60's of the NET entering Feb this is what ND has done in Feb.

W @ Miami 68-64
W @ State 69-57
W 'ville 63.57
W @ Clem 76-61
W BC 99-95 (ot)
L @ Wake 74-79
W 'cuse 79-69
W GT 90-56

What you are saying is going 6-1 doesn't move the needle 9-10 spots but a blow out of quad 4 GT does?

And ND does have a quad 4 loss.

I think this is interesting analysis, but you'd really need to look at specifically who they jumped in order to better understand the movement. It's not just about what Notre Dame has done, but also about what the teams they are jumping are doing. I'm assuming some of the teams Notre Dame jumped over recently have some bad recent losses.

 

[cville deac]

Alondes and Jake playing nearly 35-38 minutes per game in competitive games is going to make winning games on back to back days tough, particularly if we end up as the 5 seed and have to play an extra game.

Still think we can do it. Monsanto coming back has really helped the rotation, and you can play Whitt 4-5:00 per game. And UNC and Duke are the only teams who are more than 7 deep.

 

[DeacDaddy]

the impact of which will be more than negated by playing on Wednesday while four teams rest

Not necessarily, given that those teams will have played the previous Saturday and we won’t. Duke and Carolina will be playing in as highly charged an emotional game as it gets.

My point was that I think we’ll be ok to play up to four games in a row given that we had a week off. Maybes Wednesday will be the game to get the jitters out.

 

[thatguy2016]

Just to be clear I'm looking at the movements in NET.

Before Saturday ND was 57, we were 42.

ND beats quad 4 GT by 34 and moves up to 46
Wake beats quad 3 'ville by 22 and drops to 43.
UNC beats quad 3 State by 10 and moved up one spot (40?)

Since beating KY was already factored in, while ND was sitting aroud in the 60's of the NET entering Feb this is what ND has done in Feb.

W @ Miami 68-64
W @ State 69-57
W 'ville 63.57
W @ Clem 76-61
W BC 99-95 (ot)
L @ Wake 74-79
W 'cuse 79-69
W GT 90-56

What you are saying is going 6-1 doesn't move the needle 9-10 spots but a blow out of quad 4 GT does?

And ND does have a quad 4 loss.

if you pay the KP $20 annual fee, you can see ND's KP ranking before each game this season

they were #66 before losing to dook, dropped to #74,
*moved to 71 after beating Miami,
*up to #57 after beating NCSU/UL/Clemson,
*dropped to #60 after barely beating BC at home,
*stayed at #60 after losing on the road to WF,
*up to #58 after beating Cuse
*up to 47 after destroying GT

the difference between #58 and #47 is 0.8 net points out of 100 possessions (so 0.5 points in a typical game)

 

[thatguy2016]

Not necessarily, given that those teams will have played the previous Saturday and we won’t. Duke and Carolina will be playing in as highly charged an emotional game as it gets.

My point was that I think we’ll be ok to play up to four games in a row given that we had a week off. Maybes Wednesday will be the game to get the jitters out.

you think 24 hours' rest is better than 120? we disagree

 

[DeacDaddy]

2021-22 Men's College Basketball Season - ACC Teams Scrambling For NCAA Bids

you think 24 hours' rest is better than 120? we disagree

Yeah, we disagree. I’m not as concerned about those 24 hrs of rest when they are preceded by a full week of rest which our opponents will not have had. That week off is by no means “more than negated” by having to play Wednesday.

I like our guys finding our groove in an unfamiliar gym on Wednesday in what I hope is a warmup, and then making a run. We won’t be a welcome opponent Thursday afternoon.

 

[Deac83]

I think this is interesting analysis, but you'd really need to look at specifically who they jumped in order to better understand the movement. It's not just about what Notre Dame has done, but also about what the teams they are jumping are doing. I'm assuming some of the teams Notre Dame jumped over recently have some bad recent losses.

To clarify, ND has a Quad 3 loss it's UNC that has the Quad 4 loss.

Without the day by day changes at hand hard to say who they specifically jumped but the teams now behind them are a mix of middle of the pack Power 5 and mid-majors.

TCU might be the best reference point, they are 49 now and beat Texas Tech on Saturday, so ND most likely jumped them. It's a lot harder to make big jumps once you are in the 40's but I recall some west coast team jumping us which caused us to go down one after a win (ND I think).

Who, knows, but the marginal gains from Quad 3 and Quad 4 games should not result in 9-10 spots unless there was a bloodbath with the teams in front of you.

It's not a factor but, certainly Lunardi, has realized ND is in 2nd in the ACC and has given them a boost up the seeding.

FWIW, Miami sits at 62.

 

[WakeForest Fan]

after beating the poop out of louisville, wake drops to last four byes from the nine line in lunardis bracket
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

unc moved up to a 10 seed

 

[Deac83]

if you pay the KP $20 annual fee, you can see ND's KP ranking before each game this season

they were #66 before losing to dook, dropped to #74,
*moved to 71 after beating Miami,
*up to #57 after beating NCSU/UL/Clemson,
*dropped to #60 after barely beating BC at home,
*stayed at #60 after losing on the road to WF,
*up to #58 after beating Cuse
*up to 47 after destroying GT

the difference between #58 and #47 is 0.8 net points out of 100 possessions (so 0.5 points in a typical game)

So we should have tried to put up 110 on 'ville. I've been using NET, since I knew KP has some performance metrics it factors in. Either way just so counter intuitive that destroying one of the worst teams you play is more valuable than a Quad 1 win.

 

[PhDeac]

Hopefully Forbes gets the message and drops the hammer on State tomorrow.

 

[thatguy2016]

I am genuinely curious how WF would be doing right now in a parallel universe playing a Big Ten schedule.

Michigan is right next to us in KP and Lunardi's projection. They beat NW at home by 2 (as we did) and lost to UNC by 20+

Michigan is 9-11 vs. KP's top 100; WF is 6-7

(Michigan is 15-12 overall and will probably have 15 losses on Selection Sunday - I don't see them getting in)

 

[Pilchard]

Each team's metrics are also impacted what their opponents have done as the season goes on. So, as an example, WF current ratings haven't been helped by Northwestern, Oregon State and LSU having bad runs recently. The analytic rankings are shaped each day by the collective results of all of the games, not just ND's and WF's results.