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2021-22 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 25-9 (13-7), KP#33

Cam and Sy didn’t have great nights but either of them can provide some extra offense. I’m really disappointed that Mucius hasn’t developed a better offensive game. If he’s hitting 3s, great. But he’s not a threat to drive, which would be nice considering his length.
 
wakelaw13 said:
Cam and Sy didn’t have great nights but either of them can provide some extra offense. I’m really disappointed that Mucius hasn’t developed a better offensive game. If he’s hitting 3s, great. But he’s not a threat to drive, which would be nice considering his length.
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i mean, it's hard to improve when you have a coach as stupid as danny manning

some of the stories that i've heard about that guy's coaching are outrageous insofar as i have little doubt there are probably 20 coaches on this board who could coach basketball as well as, if not better than, danny manning
 
All the way up to 58 in KP. How high have we risen in the past decade? Collins' second year would have been the highest.
 
Watching Northwestern V Maryland. Tight game. Waiting for the Manning collapse.
 
Sure it's nice to have a relevant basketball team to take a bit of the sting off of the end of football season
 
mercurydime said:
Hey, DeacsATS, please update the KenPom in the thread title! Thx!
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Done.

Strength of schedule still killing us (which is why yesterday's game made such an impact on KP... VT is a good team).

A little worried that SOS will keep us out of the NCAAs (high class problem I didn't really anticipate), but we also shouldn't have any bad losses. Assuming we get through the next 3 cupcakes, of course.

KP now has us 20-11 (10-10)... That ain't bad.

Logjam for the 2nd Tier of the ACC (at least accoring to KP). After Duke @ #7 you have:
UNC - 29
VT - 33
FSU - 36
Louisville - 40
UVA - 50
ND - 51
Clemson - 52
Syracuse - 57
WFU - 59
NCSU - 73

"Interesting" games during this week:
Tuesday - #6 Villanova vs. #57 Syracuse (neutral) & #50 UVA @ #174 James Madison
Thursday - #132 Colgate @ #193 Pittsburgh (52% chance of Colgate win!)
Sat - #15 LSU vs. #90 Georgia Tech (State Farm Arena in Atlanta), #113 BC @ #89 Saint Louis, & #17 UK @ #51 Notre Dame
 
Bad losses by folks above us.
FSU just lost to Cuse by 3
UL already lost to Furman
UVA already lost to Navy and just beat Pitt by only 1
ND just to BC by 16 and also Illinois St Marys and Tex A&M
Clemson lost to Miami by 5 and Rutgers
Syracuse has lost to Colgate and VCU
State has lost to 3 loss OKST
 
How many teams will get a bid from a weak ACC, 6? If we go with the current projection of .500 in conference, a likely way to get there

- Beat BC/Pitt/State/ND/Miami at home
- Grab 2 more games on the road. KP has us going o-fer in conference on the road. I don't think that's going to happen. Miami, Clemson, GT and State are all winnable games
- Beat at least two of the following at home (Duke, UNC, Louisville, Cuse, FSU). KP has us favored against the last 3, slight dogs against UNC, <40% win against Duke. Hopefully by then, we regain some home-court advantage with a motivated crowd.

Would that plus a decent ACC Tourney showing get us in the dance? KP projects a T-7th right now. Assuming that is bubble territory.
 
2021-22 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 8-1 (1-0), KP#59

I’m still getting used to this early December ACC game. Winning that first ACC game by 19 on the road opens the whole schedule up. I don’t think we will go undefeated. No way. But it’s really hard to talk about which games we will win or lose. Everything seems up in the air except Cameron. Like maybe our ACC odds each game are between 40-80% instead of 30-60%.

I don’t know. It’s just weird to be going into exams sitting on what should be a quality road conference win. I’m still trying to figure it out.
 
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PhDeac said:
I’m still getting used to this early December ACC game. Winning that first ACC game by 19 on the road opens the whole schedule up. I don’t think we will go undefeated. No way. But it’s really hard to talk about which games we will win or lose. Everything seems up in the air except Cameron. Like maybe our ACC odds each game are between 40-80% instead of 30-60%.

I don’t know. It’s just weird to be going into exams sitting on what should be a quality road conference win. I’m still trying to figure it out.
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Couldn't agree more. It's not a game I expected us to win... Especially by 19. Makes you want to recalibrate the expectations for the entire season, but we'll really have no more evidence until that 12/29 game @ Louisville.

One game is one game, but it was a really nice result. And then you look across the landscape of other early ACC results and there is a lot of mediocrity. Most anybody can beat anybody (home or away)... Just depends on the night.

But, for me at least, concern about a 5-15 (ish) conference record is off the table. Barring injury, of course.
 
I mean before the game wouldn't Virginia Tech on the road have been considered one of our 2 or 3 toughest ACC games,
 
ChrisL68 said:
I mean before the game wouldn't Virginia Tech on the road have been considered one of our 2 or 3 toughest ACC games,
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Yes. After @Duke, VT was our lowest % likely victory the rest of the way (~17%).

Now, the "toughest" remaining games (aside from @Duke) hover around 30% - Home vs. Duke, Away vs. FSU & Louisville
 
Similarly, I was thinking... Maybe we'll be ranked soon!

But then I realized that LSU wasn't even ranked in last week's AP poll and they waxed us.

If we win the next 4 (likely) and get to 12-1 (2-0), I think we're probably a ranked team (whether it is deserved or not).
 
2021-22 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 8-1 (1-0), KP#59

This is a pretty good team who just had a really bad 65 minutes of play that all took place within 22 hours. I think a 1-loss noncon, 10 win ACC slate to avoiding ACCT Tuesday is likely. How much beyond that is hard to tell.

The NET rankings are interesting. The women are in a somewhat similar situation. Debut at #57 but the only loss is to the #4 team.

Guess we’ve got to pay attention to this quad stuff now.
 
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Can anyone explain where the Quad ranking cutoffs come in? It doesn’t appear to be top quarter, next quarter, etc with Northwestern at 42 but considered Quad 2. Maybe that being at Wake changes it just enough to move them to Quad 2?
 
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