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2021-22 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 25-9 (13-7), KP#33

thatguy2016 said:
we're at 15-4, 5-3 in conference

of the 12 remaining ACC games, KP has us as a significant favorite (68% or higher win probability) in 6, all at home:
BC
Pitt
Miami
Notre Dame
Louisville
NC State

KP has us as a significant underdog (18%) at Duke

The remaining 5 games all have winning expectancy between 40% and 60% - virtual toss-ups:
UNC
at Cuse
at FSU
at NC State
at Clemson

We go 6-0 in the games we *should* win, 3-2 in the toss-ups, 0-1 at Duke, that gets us to 24-7, 14-6 heading into the ACCT (with a bye to the quarterfinals)

5-1, 2-3, 0-1 has us at 22-9, 12-8 and needing a win at the ACCT to feel comfortable
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What might it feel like to NOT play on Day 1 of the ACC Tournament for a change!?!? Wake is the only team, right, that has played on Tuesday every year since that has been a thing?
 
4 of our 5 starters are from the portal this year, so not overly concerned with roster construction. that said, have we gotten word that mucius, walton and williamson are all planning on leaving wake after this year?
 
2021-22 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 15-4 (5-3), KP#40

People have posted that Mucius told the coaches he’d be done after this year, but I don’t remember seeing anything official.
 
2021-22 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 15-4 (5-3), KP#40

Whitt finished with 2-0-3. The 3 assists were really good, but lets not get crazy here.
 
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IAppreciateIt said:
4 of our 5 starters are from the portal this year, so not overly concerned with roster construction. that said, have we gotten word that mucius, walton and williamson are all planning on leaving wake after this year?
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I guess I don't want to scroll back, but could somebody explain this to me? Mucius hasn't used his transfer, so I get that, plus he's a DM recruit. Williamson used a Covid transfer, which I don't think counts, but is the starting PG. He moved with Forbes. He wants to move on from Forbes now? Walton has used his transfer, but i guess he would be a grad transfer and free to move on in that capacity? Again, he's a starter in the ACC, but ok I guess.

Do I have that all right? Williamson wanting to transfer doesn't make sense to me.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
4 of our 5 starters are from the portal this year, so not overly concerned with roster construction. that said, have we gotten word that mucius, walton and williamson are all planning on leaving wake after this year?
Click to expand...

It's so nice to see us playing watchable basketball for the 1st time in forever. That said, I am a bit concerned long term with roster construction because I don't think you can totally rely on the portal every year and would like to see HS recruiting pick up.
 
thatguy2016 said:
5-1, 2-3, 0-1 has us at 22-9, 12-8 and needing a win at the ACCT to feel comfortable
Click to expand...

I think that is the most likely outcome... And 22 wins ahead of the ACC Tourney would be a huge beat of preseason expectations.

Not that it matters, but I think we need to beat either UNC or Duke to be taken seriously in terms of media praise. I'd give up one of those "should wins" for a win over UNC or Duke. Would also help with recruiting to show that we can be right up there with the marquee programs in the conference.

UNC is a HUGE game for this program, IMO.
 
EatLeadCommie said:
I guess I don't want to scroll back, but could somebody explain this to me? Mucius hasn't used his transfer, so I get that, plus he's a DM recruit. Williamson used a Covid transfer, which I don't think counts, but is the starting PG. He moved with Forbes. He wants to move on from Forbes now? Walton has used his transfer, but i guess he would be a grad transfer and free to move on in that capacity? Again, he's a starter in the ACC, but ok I guess.

Do I have that all right? Williamson wanting to transfer doesn't make sense to me.
Click to expand...

I think the speculation is those guys would move on from college hoops altogether, not to a different program
 
FWIW, KP now projects Duke to win the ACC at 14-5, Miami to finish 2nd at 13-7, and a three-way tie for third at 12-8 with WF, UNC and ND. Suffice to say, Saturday's game is kind of important.
 
Pilchard said:
FWIW, KP now projects Duke to win the ACC at 14-5, Miami to finish 2nd at 13-7, and a three-way tie for third at 12-8 with WF, UNC and ND. Suffice to say, Saturday's game is kind of important.
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After looking completely outmatched vs. Duke at home, we really need to put together a strong effort vs. UNC.

The UNC blowout loss to Miami gives me mixed feelings. It tells me there is no reason we can't beat UNC handily, but it also means they'll be eager to get that taste out of their mouth.

Also a chance for Forbes to set the tone in his first matchup against Davis.
 
PhDeac said:
Wake fans during a decade of perpetually young teams: When will we finally have an experienced roster?

Wake fans with an experienced roster: Why aren’t our young players playing?

We are fine. Worst case we go into next year starting Whitt/Hildreth, Williamson, Monsanto, LaRavia, and Marsh. Best case, Mucius comes back and we add an experienced PG, scorer, and big and Keller is ready to contribute from Day 1.
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5 of our top 6 players are from the portal, that tells you all you need to know. it’s 2022 folks not 1985, the transfer portal is here to stay and Forbes will definitly use it to build our team. last time i checked you don’t have to build your whole team through high school recruiting. relax folks Forbes knows how to build a team whether through the portal, hs recruits and international. no need to freak out, we’ll be fine. if you ever doubt the portal answer this question, where would Wake be right now without the portal?? 5-6 wins??
 
DeacsATS said:
After looking completely outmatched vs. Duke at home, we really need to put together a strong effort vs. UNC.

The UNC blowout loss to Miami gives me mixed feelings. It tells me there is no reason we can't beat UNC handily, but it also means they'll be eager to get that taste out of their mouth.

Also a chance for Forbes to set the tone in his first matchup against Davis.
Click to expand...

this game and the lead-in remind me very much of UNC's first game at the Joel under Roy in 2004.

We had won in 3OT at UNC early that season; UNC had lost on Thursday to Duke, turned around and played us at noon (I think; definitely early as it ruined my day); we were favored, we were better, UNC flat took it to us and beat us on our home floor

Agree we need this win.

KP's projections have WF with 12 projected wins, and that goes up to 13 if we win Saturday. (it's 12.4 right now)
 
Per the Athletic:

Should be in: Duke
Work to do: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Miami

Wake's case:
Wake Forest (14-4, 4-3; NET: 49, SOS: 116): Sure, most of the ACC might be uninspiring and dull, but carve out a special place in your heart for Wake Forest, one of the surprise teams of the 2021-22 season. This program sank to desperate lows in the past, oh, decade or so; if the Jeff [Redacted] era was grim, Danny Manning’s tenure didn’t do much to lift Deacs’ fans spirits. (There was one NCAA Tournament bid, anyway, so Wake had that going for it, which was nice, etc.) A year ago, former East Tennessee State coach and fellow native Iowan Steve Forbes laid his cultural foundations in relative obscurity. Wake finished ranked 175th in adjusted efficiency. This year, all of a sudden — thanks in large part to the ability to build through the portal, which all fans of rebuilding teams should totally embrace for exactly this reason — Wake is a borderline top-50 team with a real chance of making the NCAA Tournament, exactly the kind of fun surprise this version of the ACC desperately needed. So: Can they pull this off? The biggest area of long-term concern is Wake’s nonconference schedule, which ranks 313th, and which is the kind of thing a) ahead-of-schedule rebuilding programs do in years where they don’t expect to have to worry about NCAA Tournament resume numbers just yet and b) the selection committee routinely punishes. But we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. For now, Forbes and Co. are very much on track.
 
With how well Monsanto played in his debut, Wake has something to help skew the favorable numbers to the high side. No metric can account for the impact a player with Monsanto's skills can have on the team's performance in the second half of ACC play.

Wake can make the early season games a footnote by winning the Saturday game of the ACC Tournament.
 
For me personally the most impressive moment in last night’s game other than Monsanto’s threes was Dallas Walton’s inside move and dunk. He has seemed timid at other times. If he could start to unleash that kind of confident inside presence more regularly, we get even more dangerous.
 
That's awesome!
 
Wow. That really puts it in context. Where do you get dunk stats?
 
PhDeac said:
Wow. That really puts it in context. Where do you get dunk stats?
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, by looking at the ESPN play-by-play and using Ctrl+F.

I'm sure there's an actual database somewhere like there is for the NBA, but have no clue where you'd find it.
 
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