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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

Just dropping by to point out Lunardi's latest bracket has us as an 11 seed in the play-in game against Kansas State. That feels familiar for some reason...

The Athletic's Bracket Watch! has us as a "First Four Out" with some discussion of the ACC's misery, generally.
 
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Gonzaga winning by 25 at Pepperdine (220th in the NET going into last night) and moving from 46 to 35 in the NET is slightly annoying.

This is where I get aggravated. I understand the numbers know basketball "better" than I do, but you can't tell me it's easier to beat VPI on your home court by 23 than it is to beat Pepperdine by 25 on their home court. I mean, maybe it is, and I'm just off.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Gonzaga winning by 25 at Pepperdine (220th in the NET going into last night) and moving from 46 to 35 in the NET is slightly annoying.

This is where I get aggravated. I understand the numbers know basketball "better" than I do, but you can't tell me it's easier to beat VPI on your home court by 23 than it is to beat Pepperdine by 25 on their home court. I mean, maybe it is, and I'm just off.
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You made this point much more elegantly than my similar attempt last week, so kudos to you
 
DeacInVermont said:
Just dropping by to point out Lunardi's latest bracket has us as an 11 seed in the play-in game against Kansas State. That feels familiar for some reason...

The Athletic's Bracket Watch! has us as a "First Four Out" with some discussion of the ACC's misery, generally.
Click to expand...

at this point in the season I choose to concentrate my handwringing on the metrics and the NET, not any one bracket estimate and certainly not Lunardi

about a month from now I'll start looking at the bracket matrix, which is a far better predictor than any one single guess (and especially Lunardi)

YMMV, of course
 
thatguy2016 said:
at this point in the season I choose to concentrate my handwringing on the metrics and the NET, not any one bracket estimate and certainly not Lunardi

about a month from now I'll start looking at the bracket matrix, which is a far better predictor than any one single guess (and especially Lunardi)

YMMV, of course
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Of course. I figured the "for entertainment only purposes" was implied.

Nonetheless, it is interesting to see narratives begin to coalesce across different projections. It's nothing we don't already know, but I find myself enjoying this versus the alternative of not having any hope whatsoever.
 
I thought it was funny that after Utah kicked the shit out of Oregon State last night (74-47), they moved up exactly one spot in KP.

I guess that's what we're facing with Louisville tomorrow. Need an ass-kicking to tread water.

Also, I think most, if not all, of the preseason bias is out of KP at this point.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Gonzaga winning by 25 at Pepperdine (220th in the NET going into last night) and moving from 46 to 35 in the NET is slightly annoying.

This is where I get aggravated. I understand the numbers know basketball "better" than I do, but you can't tell me it's easier to beat VPI on your home court by 23 than it is to beat Pepperdine by 25 on their home court. I mean, maybe it is, and I'm just off.
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The VT game moved Wake from 78 to 64 in NET, which is a pretty substantial movement, so it’s not like we got no credit for that win.

It’s also hard to tell how big of a bump a team got just from how many teams they jump in the rankings, because (unlike KP) you have no idea how close the underlying metrics of teams ranked close together actually are. Maybe NET viewed teams ranked from #35-50 as all pretty similar as of last night, and that’s why Gonzaga jumped so many other teams.

I’m not dismissing your concern, because I agree that the lack of transparency with NET is extremely annoying.
 
DeacsATS said:
I thought it was funny that after Utah kicked the shit out of Oregon State last night (74-47), they moved up exactly one spot in KP.

I guess that's what we're facing with Louisville tomorrow. Need an ass-kicking to tread water.

Also, I think most, if not all, of the preseason bias is out of KP at this point.
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They moved up almost a full point in KP, passing two teams, before Gonzaga then passed them back. That's a big move -- but they had a big gap between them and the teams just ahead of them going into the night. Now the gap isn't as big and another big game and they'll jump more teams.

For example: if Northwestern (#59) had a similarly positive game, they'd jump 9 spots to #50 with the same bump in rating.
 
Haros said:
They moved up almost a full point in KP, passing two teams, before Gonzaga then passed them back. That's a big move -- but they had a big gap between them and the teams just ahead of them going into the night. Now the gap isn't as big and another big game and they'll jump more teams.

For example: if Northwestern (#59) had a similarly positive game, they'd jump 9 spots to #50 with the same bump in rating.
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Yeah, was trying to illustrate the point that the higher you move up in KP, the more difficult it is to move even higher.
 
The lack of transparency in NET shouldn't be an issue anymore. There's more than enough data for any university's Mathematics department grad students to figure it out.
 
College basketball on NBC late 1970's was Pure Gold.

Dick Enberg, Al McGuire and Billy Packer.

GREAT theme song.

Depaul with Meyer, Notre Dame with Digger, IU and Bob Knight....Isaiah Thomas, Kelly Tripucka, Mark Aguirre....

Sponsored by Texaco, Gillette razors and Anheuser Busch.
 
PhDeac said:
The lack of transparency in NET shouldn't be an issue anymore. There's more than enough data for any university's Mathematics department grad students to figure it out.
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Wake math geeks too busy analyzing curve ball movement to have time for that.
 
PhDeac said:
The lack of transparency in NET shouldn't be an issue anymore. There's more than enough data for any university's Mathematics department grad students to figure it out.
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Well somebody on here should be able to figure it out then and we can present it to Forbes and tell him how to engineer a winning NET schedule with the lowest risk!
 
Also, to show how much college hoops has changed, a Notre Dame team with Kelly Tripucka, Orlando Woolridge and John Paxson was 11-3.

That's 3 good NBA guys. Haha. Today, they would be at worst, 13-1.
 
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