2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

[IAppreciateIt]

I get the feeling the committee doesn't want to leave us out. But we have to snatch a couple Q1 wins. Let's beat Duke and either VT or Clemson and call it a day

Yeah, I agree with this just based on gut feel -- we just need to provide them just a little bit of resume evidence to put us in (i.e. beat dook), and I think we not only make it in, but also at a higher seed than the resume would suggest. I think one marquee win would really help validate the circumstances around the rest of the schedule (Reid, small MOV in road losses, somewhat unfavorable schedule re: quads, Forbes is probably friends with half the committee, etc.)

With Utah, my biggest worry is we don't finish strong (e.g. 4-2) and the committee uses the H2H loss to put them in over us. But hopefully a moot point.

 

[deacfan123]

Yeah if we are "In" they have plenty of reason to give us a good seed.

Although, I like the 11 spot. 6 seeds are all vulnerable and you play a 3 after most likely. Better than 7/8/9/10 where you have a 1/2 seed waiting.

 

[thatguy2016]

No one wanted to pause for second and think about how fucking stupid this sounds.

just wait until Nevada beats San Jose State tonight, giving a slight boost to Utah State and moving them to 30 in the NET, bumping Florida down to 31...

 

[KennyRogersRoast]

If the predictive metrics are used more heavily for seeding once the field is selected, I do not see any chance we end up in Dayton.

 

[Haros]

Yeah, I agree with this just based on gut feel -- we just need to provide them just a little bit of resume evidence to put us in (i.e. beat dook), and I think we not only make it in, but also at a higher seed than the resume would suggest. I think one marquee win would really help validate the circumstances around the rest of the schedule (Reid, small MOV in road losses, somewhat unfavorable schedule re: quads, Forbes is probably friends with half the committee, etc.)

With Utah, my biggest worry is we don't finish strong (e.g. 4-2) and the committee uses the H2H loss to put them in over us. But hopefully a moot point.

I had that same sinking feeling when watching Utah with a putback at the buzzer to beat UCLA this weekend. A long way to go before this all shakes out and hopefully we aren't in a spot where that matters.

 

[deacon14]

With Utah, my biggest worry is we don't finish strong (e.g. 4-2) and the committee uses the H2H loss to put them in over us. But hopefully a moot point.

The committee has stated a million times that H2H between bubble teams is not a serious point of consideration. I don't think this is a real concern.

The committee is not really in a situation to pick one team between just two. They are picking 4-5 out of a pool of like 15.

 

[Deaconblue]

The committee has stated a million times that H2H between bubble teams is not a serious point of consideration. I don't think this is a real concern.

The committee is not really in a situation to pick one team between just two. They are picking 4-5 out of a pool of like 15.

Even doing that eventually comes down to picking one of two (sometimes three) for the last spot.

 

[DownEastDeac]

We'll know more after tomorrow's game, but given our less-than-stellar ACC tournament results in recent years, I'm hoping that we don't need a win in round 1 to get in, or to avoid a loss to stay in. But given the two possibilities, I'd rather have the motivation of "if we win, we move in" , vs. the potential demotivation of "oh nooes, if we lose we're out"; "recent" example (o.k., sarcasm here, but indicative of my longtime Wake fandom/suffering) are the still-raw scars of our "losing" to APP State 34-34 in 1988 to be denied a bowl bid.

 

[deacon14]

Even doing that eventually comes down to picking one of two (sometimes three) for the last spot.

Sure, but even if that happens between two teams that played each other the committee is going to emphasize the full resume over a H2H result to make a decision.

I mean Clemson annihilated NC State three times last year and NC State got in off the bubble while Clemson did not. I'm confident there are similar examples as well, H2H just isn't that important to the committee.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

If the predictive metrics are used more heavily for seeding once the field is selected, I do not see any chance we end up in Dayton.

I believe that the "last 4 in" go to Dayton regardless. So if we're on the bubble and barely sneak in (on the back of metrics boosting us) we'd still go to Dayton. Otherwise though I agree

 

[deacon14]

I believe that the "last 4 in" go to Dayton regardless. So if we're on the bubble and barely sneak in (on the back of metrics boosting us) we'd still go to Dayton. Otherwise though I agree

It would be pretty funny if Wake got sent to Dayton and then was favored in both the play-in game and the game against the 6 seed (assuming a win in Dayton).

 

[Wakeforest22890]

It would be pretty funny if Wake got sent to Dayton and then was favored in both the play-in game and the game against the 6 seed (assuming a win in Dayton).

Yeah I mean it's almost certain that would be the case barring a 6 seed being in a similar metrics v. resume standpoint. To state the obvious: Wake would be favored on a neutral court against everybody in the country today except the top 19-20 teams or so.

 

[deacfan123]

I think we'd be favored vs some 6 seeds for sure.

 

[Deacfreak07]

Yeah I mean it's almost certain that would be the case barring a 6 seed being in a similar metrics v. resume standpoint. To state the obvious: Wake would be favored on a neutral court against everybody in the country today except the top 19-20 teams or so.

Which is why this is all so stupid.

 

[BarcaDeac]

Agreed. Don't they take this into consideration with seeding if a player is injured or ineligible? We definitely beat lsu and uga and probably Utah with him and that probably puts us at a 6 or 7 seed or better and safely in.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

after the FSU CFP debacle it would be so typically Wake Forest for the CBB committee to come out and say they don't take player availability into consideration at all, therefore Reid's presence was never a subject of debate.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

I think we'd be favored vs some 6 seeds for sure.

Using bracket matrix for projected 6 seeds and KP for who would be favored against us (with a little guesstimation on my part as well):

BYU (-2.5 or -3) v. Wake
Texas Tech v. Wake (-1.5 or -2)
Colorado State v. Wake (-2 or -2.5)
St. Marys v.Wake (PK or -.5 to -1)

 

[BeachBumDeac]

I knew we'd been winning at home a lot but I didn't know we were "second in the country in home wins" good

Wake Forest now holds an impressive 45-5 record at home since the start of the 2021-22 season including a perfect 14-0 mark at home this year.. The Demon Deacons overall wins since the start of the 2021-22 season rank second in the country and leads the ACC during that time frame:
Rank Team Home Wins Winning Percentage

• 1 Houston 47 .940
• T2 Wake Forest 45 .900
• T2 Arizona 45 .957
• T2 Providence 45 .900
• T2 Texas 45 .849
• T6 Saint Mary's 44 .898
• T6 Kansas 44 .957
• T6 UAB 44 .863
• T6 Duke 44 .898

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Against the other three teams in the Bracket Watch "Last Four In":

Villanova v. Wake (-2.5 or -3)
Texas A&M v. Wake (-4.5)
Seton Hall v. Wake (-5.5)

 

[deacon14]

Using bracket matrix for projected 6 seeds and KP for who would be favored against us (with a little guesstimation on my part as well):

BYU (-2.5 or -3) v. Wake
Texas Tech v. Wake (-1.5 or -2)
Colorado State v. Wake (-2 or -2.5)
St. Marys v.Wake (PK or -.5 to -1)

This is all setting up for Wake to make the tournament, be everybody's favorite pick for an upset (based on seeds), and then lose in the first round and have everyone hate Wake

 

[Wakeforest22890]

DraftKings has "Wake Forest to Make the 2024 NCAA Tournament" line set at:

Yes -200
No +155

This is right at 66.67% or so for Yes to hit. Not bad at all