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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

DeacsATS said:
Agreed. And Pitt could potentially slide in ahead of UVA. I doubt they both get in.
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Pitt's nonconference schedule is one of the softest things I've ever seen. Their NET nonconference strength of schedule is rated at 344. They played 6 teams that are 250+ in NET. They only played one top 100 NET team (Florida) and lost by 15. They lost to 0-14 in the SEC Missouri at home.

I just don't think fringe bubble teams can (or should be able to) get away with such putrid nonconference scheduling, and I'm pretty sure the committee feels the same way. Maybe if Pitt wins out against Clemson/NCSU/BC/FSU they are in the conversation, but without that happening I don't think they should be.
 
deacon14 said:
Pitt's nonconference schedule is one of the softest things I've ever seen. Their NET nonconference strength of schedule is rated at 344. They played 6 teams that are 250+ in NET. They only played one top 100 NET team (Florida) and lost by 15. They lost to 0-14 in the SEC Missouri at home.

I just don't think fringe bubble teams can (or should be able to) get away with such putrid nonconference scheduling, and I'm pretty sure the committee feels the same way. Maybe if Pitt wins out against Clemson/NCSU/BC/FSU they are in the conversation, but without that happening I don't think they should be.
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Sounds like us 2 years ago
 
TheIshThatSaved WakeForest said:
Sounds like us 2 years ago
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Even this year, we don't have much room to preach to other teams about strong nonconference schedules. Wake played 5 teams ranked 275+ in NET, which is abysmal.

But Wake also played five NET top 100 teams, which is four more than Pitt did. Granted, Rutgers and UGA are pretty close to that top 100 line, but still.
 
deacon14 said:
Even this year, we don't have much room to preach to other teams about strong nonconference schedules. Wake played 5 teams ranked 275+ in NET, which is abysmal.

But Wake also played five NET top 100 teams, which is four more than Pitt did. Granted, Rutgers and UGA are pretty close to that top 100 line, but still.
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I thought our OOC was bad until I looked at the Big 12.
 
If (big IF) Pitt wins out... They'll be on a 10-1 heater (only loss to us). They'll be 13-7 in the ACC and probably a top 4 seed with a bye. They'll also be 4-5 in Q1 games and 3-2 in Q2. And their metrics would look much better than UVAs... 30s in NET/KP.

My broader point is that this game against Clemson is HUGE for them. Probably better for us if Clemson wins and basically kills any hope of Pitt climbing back into the conversation... Keeps that Clemson game a Q1 opportunity for us and removes Pitt from competing for an ACC bye.
 
Was just listening to the Duke basketball podcast. Laughed so hard because Flip had a miracle recovery once back on the locker room. Was not walking gingerly , completely upright and with no limp. Goes to show you the mental toughness of this Duke team. Lol I may have changed the wording a little bit. But that was the message.
 
Hopefully Forbes has some good bulletin board material off the duke game considering no one is talking about us winning just poor widdle duke
 
DeacsATS said:
If (big IF) Pitt wins out... They'll be on a 10-1 heater (only loss to us). They'll be 13-7 in the ACC and probably a top 4 seed with a bye. They'll also be 4-5 in Q1 games and 3-2 in Q2. And their metrics would look much better than UVAs... 30s in NET/KP.

My broader point is that this game against Clemson is HUGE for them. Probably better for us if Clemson wins and basically kills any hope of Pitt climbing back into the conversation... Keeps that Clemson game a Q1 opportunity for us and removes Pitt from competing for an ACC bye.
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Yes, we need Pitt out of the convo entirely. They would have better tiebreakers against us than almost any other team if they finish the season on a winning streak.

A loss at Clemson pretty much ends their season. A win, and they have life.
 
DeacsATS said:
If (big IF) Pitt wins out... They'll be on a 10-1 heater (only loss to us). They'll be 13-7 in the ACC and probably a top 4 seed with a bye. They'll also be 4-5 in Q1 games and 3-2 in Q2. And their metrics would look much better than UVAs... 30s in NET/KP.

My broader point is that this game against Clemson is HUGE for them. Probably better for us if Clemson wins and basically kills any hope of Pitt climbing back into the conversation... Keeps that Clemson game a Q1 opportunity for us and removes Pitt from competing for an ACC bye.
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I mean sure, if Pitt hits the top 5% outcome of going 4-0 in those games then they will probably be worthy of a bid even with their nonconference. My point was that unless they do that, the nonconference is going to come back to haunt a team that actually had a really good ACC season.
 
We just need to control our own destiny and win at least 3 out of 4. Each game is important but The game at VT and the last game vs Klempsum concern me the most. Klempsum has some impressive wins away from home this year
 
The others honestly concern me more, because of how bad a loss they would be. Not worried about Clemson, the joel is a fortress.
 
deacdixieboy said:
I thought our OOC was bad until I looked at the Big 12.
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Agreed that the Big 12 didn't exactly challenge themselves much in the OOC.

However, one thing they did that Wake didn't was schedule more of the teams that are in the 125-200 NET range. That's way better for your metrics than playing a team in the 250+ range, and you can probably still blow them out. Wake's schedule this year was either a P5 team or one of the literal worst D1 teams, with the only example in the middle being Towson. If Wake had played more teams like Towson and less teams like NJIT, Wake's expected record would be close to the same but Wake would get more respect in the eyes of the committee.
 
deacon14 said:
Agreed that the Big 12 didn't exactly challenge themselves much in the OOC.

However, one thing they did that Wake didn't was schedule more of the teams that are in the 125-200 NET range. That's way better for your metrics than playing a team in the 250+ range, and you can probably still blow them out. Wake's schedule this year was either a P5 team or one of the literal worst D1 teams, with the only example in the middle being Towson. If Wake had played more teams like Towson and less teams like NJIT, Wake's expected record would be close to the same but Wake would get more respect in the eyes of the committee.
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Idk if that rings true this year, how much better can our metrics get? The literal only thing holding us back is Q1 wins. We need more games in the top 50 not 125-200.
 
deacfan123 said:
The others honestly concern me more, because of how bad a loss they would be. Not worried about Clemson, the joel is a fortress.
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I honestly think the exact opposite of this.

Wake is missing resume wins, but they have good enough metrics to stomach a bad loss. I mean Wake is a top 20 KP team, that isn't going to tank with one bad loss. I don't think a loss to GT or ND sinks Wake, but not having enough Q1 wins will
 
I hope that is true, I just hate watching the games that only bad things can come from. It scares me.
 
deacfan123 said:
Idk if that rings true this year, how much better can our metrics get? The literal only thing holding us back is Q1 wins. We need more games in the top 50 not 125-200.
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Well yeah, this year it didn't end up mattering much to Wake. But Wake took the hard road to improve the metrics, by blowing out teams like UVA, VT, Pitt, GT, and Syracuse. The easy route would have been blowing out slightly better teams in the nonconference
 
Win out and we are a 3 seed. Win out and lose in the ACCT final, probably a 4 (I guess could be a 5 or 6 if there are upsets and we end up playing trash teams in the ACCT). Let's just do one of those.
 
deacon14 said:
Well yeah, this year it didn't end up mattering much to Wake. But Wake took the hard road to improve the metrics, by blowing out teams like UVA, VT, Pitt, GT, and Syracuse. The easy route would have been blowing out slightly better teams in the nonconference
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Problem with non-conference is the team we had then isn't the same team we have now.
 
regarding scheduling, Forbes had a recent presser where he talked about avoiding Quad 3 games in the non-con. He see those as the game you could lose, but you get no credit for it.

so assuming he keeps the same advisor, expect to see more 300+ teams next year while he tries to avoid Q3.

does not help that as of right now, the ACC schedule gave WF 6 Q3 (and one Q4) games
 
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