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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

KP thinks Lousville goes 3-6 down the stretch? That's pretty surprising to me, I mean they are 3-12 in their last 15 games. I assume it has them winning at home against GT/ND and then finding an upset win somewhere.

I'd bet against them getting 3 more wins probably
 
deacon14 said:
KP thinks Lousville goes 3-6 down the stretch? That's pretty surprising to me, I mean they are 3-12 in their last 15 games. I assume it has them winning at home against GT/ND and then finding an upset win somewhere.

I'd bet against them getting 3 more wins probably
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KP has UL at 50% vs GT, 58% vs ND, and no more than 36% in any other game (only two others greater than 26%) - but that scrum adds up to 2.52 expected wins
 
ChrisL68 said:
Duke plays BC and ND in their next two games.

After 12 games they will have played. ND x2 GT x2, Louisville, BC, Pitt x2, Syracuse, VT, Clemson, UNC.
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But after the ND game they play Wake, at FSU, at Miami, at Wake, Louisville, UVA, at NCSU, UNC.

That's as tough of an 8 game stretch as you will realistically see in the ACC
 
deacon14 said:
KP thinks Lousville goes 3-6 down the stretch? That's pretty surprising to me, I mean they are 3-12 in their last 15 games. I assume it has them winning at home against GT/ND and then finding an upset win somewhere.

I'd bet against them getting 3 more wins probably
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they went 2-9 playing no bottom feeders and their remaining schedule is mostly bottom feeders
 
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Deacsfan27 said:
I mean they already cap the scoring margin in the NET, but if you're not going to cap offensive efficiency (minus) defensive efficiency when a game enters "garbage time", then that doesn't do anything because scoring margin obviously still matters.
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Do they? At what number? I know this has been claimed, but I haven't seen anything definitive on this.

Yes, capping the margin of victory doesn't matter if efficiency is still counted in the waning minutes of a blowout.
 
The NET does not include scoring margin at all anymore. It is built into efficiency. This was one change they made in 2020 which also eliminated winning percentage and adjusted winning percentage - as it was largely redundant to efficiency.

Two things matter only for NET:

1) Adjusted Net Efficiency (offensive minus defensive, adjusted for strength of opponent)
2) Team Value Index - some boost for beating other "good" teams accounting for location

There is no insight into what the TVI is or how it counts.
 
"The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee announced that beginning with the 2020-21 season, the NCAA Evaluation Tool will be changed to increase accuracy and simplify it by reducing a five-component metric to just two. The remaining factors include the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. . . .

No longer will the NET use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin."

www.ncaa.com

DI men’s basketball committee announces change to NET in 2020-21

The NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee announced a change to the NCAA Evaluation Tool metric, which debuted during the 2018-19 season and replaced the RPI as the primary sorting tool.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Good stuff - so Dan Bonner was wrong.
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Not necessarily. The TVI could have scoring margin built into it - I would guess it does since it is a "results based feature." That article is just stating that scoring margin is no longer one of the 5 stand-alone components of the model.
 
Dan said that the margin is capped to 10 which it used to be, which I'm sure is what he was talking about.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
Seeing all these heartfelt Toby Keith eulogies quoting the lyrics “ I ain’t as good as I once was, but i’m as good once as I ever was”

Do his fans not realize he was talking about fucking?
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Maybe he's talking about Dan Bonner!
 
Dumb question: does net rating calculate quadrants based on the team's standing when you played them, or does it adjust throughout the year based on how that team does? Ex: we beat someone at home when they're ranked 100th, but they end the season at 20 - does that end up as a Q1 win?
 
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