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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

With LSU beating Kentucky, that has to be good for helping to keep Florida as a Q1 win, right? Or do I have no idea how all this works. I just think I recall seeing Kentucky and Florida ranked around the same in NET
 
Deacfreak07 said:
Apparently that shit don’t matter.
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In all sincerity, I do think we should care more about whether a team is capable of beating good teams than we do about whether a team has a perfect record against the bad teams it plays. The NCAAT is a lot more interesting with high ceiling/low floor teams in as opposed to low ceiling/high floor teams if that's what we are picking between on the bubble.

Of course, I don't think that Wake is a low ceiling team, but they need to prove it by picking up a few impressive wins in the next few weeks.
 
Agree that we need at least one big win, but would be interesting if we finished 12-8 with 2 close losses and 3 blowout victories and a KP/NET in the high teens. No idea what would happen in that scenario.
 
deacon14 said:
In all sincerity, I do think we should care more about whether a team is capable of beating good teams than we do about whether a team has a perfect record against the bad teams it plays. The NCAAT is a lot more interesting with high ceiling/low floor teams in as opposed to low ceiling/high floor teams if that's what we are picking between on the bubble.

Of course, I don't think that Wake is a low ceiling team, but they need to prove it by picking up a few impressive wins in the next few weeks.
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Sure, but coming in as a 6 seed and losing to Winthrop in the first round doesn't impress anyone.
 
Biff Tannen said:
Sure, but coming in as a 6 seed and losing to Winthrop in the first round doesn't impress anyone.
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It’s a lot more fun for casual viewers when there’s a bunch of teams that have the potential to make an Elite Eight run or the potential to lose to a double digit seed.

I’d way rather have that than a bunch of teams that will very likely lose in the first round that they aren’t a favorite
 
Am I the only one a little erked by these brackotologist dudes trying to diminish Wake's home record by saying "You don't get to play at home during the tournament." But last I checked, you don't play tournament games on the road either. Someone posted that Uconn hasn't won a road game against a ranked team in 10 years, but have won 2 natty's in that time frame. I understand road wins are one barometer for the quality of the team, but it just rubs me the wrong way when they say this to take away our incredible run at the Joel.
 
deacon14 said:
It’s a lot more fun for casual viewers when there’s a bunch of teams that have the potential to make an Elite Eight run or the potential to lose to a double digit seed.

I’d way rather have that than a bunch of teams that will very likely lose in the first round that they aren’t a favorite
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You would prefer a team with a profile like A&M in the tournament as opposed to a profile like Wake? I can see both sides. How about a team with a strong resume like Ole Miss but appears objectively not very good based on predictive metrics?

Also, if thinking of these 3 as double digit seeds, a team with Wake’a profile is most likely to be favored as a double digit seed.

Personally I like leaning resume for selection and predictives for seeding. At the same time I really do not care to see teams kenpom 70+ getting at large bids. They seem more likely to not be competitive.
 
Vegas Jethro said:
Am I the only one a little erked by these brackotologist dudes trying to diminish Wake's home record by saying "You don't get to play at home during the tournament." But last I checked, you don't play tournament games on the road either. Someone posted that Uconn hasn't won a road game against a ranked team in 10 years, but have won 2 natty's in that time frame. I understand road wins are one barometer for the quality of the team, but it just rubs me the wrong way when they say this to take away our incredible run at the Joel.
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Well we haven’t exactly beaten anybody that particularly is good at home either. Until Saturday that is…
 
Vegas Jethro said:
Am I the only one a little erked by these brackotologist dudes trying to diminish Wake's home record by saying "You don't get to play at home during the tournament." But last I checked, you don't play tournament games on the road either. Someone posted that Uconn hasn't won a road game against a ranked team in 10 years, but have won 2 natty's in that time frame. I understand road wins are one barometer for the quality of the team, but it just rubs me the wrong way when they say this to take away our incredible run at the Joel.
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I was about to post something along these lines.

When you beat a team by 20 at home and lose by 2 at their place it’s pretty clear that A) you’re the better team and B) you would very likely win on a neutral court.

Having Wake out of the tourney while everyone else in our NET-range averages around a 6 seed is the classic “we believe in analytics! Well, unless the analytics conflict with some random subjective opinion that directly conflicts with the makeup of the analytics.”

The non-subjective addition to the metrics here is that we were missing Effon Reid for a chunk of the season. Don’t hear much about that from the bracketologists.
 
DCDeac said:
Having Wake out of the tourney while everyone else in our NET-range averages around a 6 seed is the classic “we believe in analytics! Well, unless the analytics conflict with some random subjective opinion that directly conflicts with the makeup of the analytics.”
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Pretty much summarizes my decade of insight into how people think in corporate America
 
KennyRogersRoast said:
You would prefer a team with a profile like A&M in the tournament as opposed to a profile like Wake? I can see both sides. How about a team with a strong resume like Ole Miss but appears objectively not very good based on predictive metrics?
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In theory yes, a profile like A&M is more interesting to me than a similarly rated team that got there by winning all the games they are favored in and losing the ones they aren't. Wake is a lot better in all of the metrics than A&M though, so I wouldn't say that's a perfect comparison.

Ole Miss scheduled a lot of garbage in their non-conference schedule and deserves to be punished for it. Especially considering they were in close games with a lot of those garbage teams. I mean, they beat 1-27 Detroit Mercy by 1 point at home.

Ole Miss relied on getting impressive wins in the SEC, and that absolutely hasn't happened outside of their win against Florida (this is starting to sound familiar). In my biased opinion, a team with this sort of resume should be given the benefit of the doubt if the predictive metrics rate them highly, but it should get a LOT of scrutiny if the metrics don't.
 
I haven't looked at this as closely as some of you have. But it seems like if Wake gets left out, a team with a similar Q1/Q2 resume and worse metrics would get in.
 
DCDeac said:
Having Wake out of the tourney while everyone else in our NET-range averages around a 6 seed is the classic “we believe in analytics! Well, unless the analytics conflict with some random subjective opinion that directly conflicts with the makeup of the analytics.”
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I hear this argument, but it's also worth pointing out that those teams around us in NET actually have a handful of impressive wins, which we honestly don't (yet).

In the top 30 of the NET, only Gonzaga, New Mexico, and Wake have 5 or fewer combined Q1/Q2 wins. New Mexico is 4-3 in Q1, so it's not really fair to group them in here. It's really just Wake and Gonzaga that the metrics believe in but the team has yet to prove it in some big games.
 
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