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2024 Wake Baseball Thread: What Did We Do To Deserve This?

I had to look up wOBA to know what it is and how it is calculated. I guess I get why non-intentional base on balls enters into the calculation and intentional base on balls does not. I think I also understand why a single counts more than a non-intentional walk. Someone will have to explain to me why hit by pitcher is worth more than a non-intentional walk.

None-the-less, a wOBA of 0.872 is phenomenal.
 
Tournament baseball is all about pitching, especially depth of pitching. The old adage holds true - you are as good as tomorrow's pitcher.
Last year's team, with a little luck (or perhaps with a little less bad luck) could have won. In addition to excellent gloves at all infield positions and major league gloves at the corners, last year's team had five quality starting pitchers. Five. That is almost unheard of in college baseball. Also Wake had two quality closers on that team.

To win the national championship, a team needs at least 4 quality starting pitchers and 2 quality bullpen arms. Wake is still struggling to put out three quality starters. Since Massey and Hartle are both showing signs of improvement, perhaps Wake is or will soon be up to three. Perhaps Rowland can be the shut-down closer. Perhaps Falco will get back to form. Who else can give more than 3 innings and be the fourth starter?

Many years ago early in the season a major league manager was asked how good his team is. He replied ask again after 40 games. Problem is after 40 games in college, the season is almost over.
 
I don't think any team in America has 4 quality starters and 2 quality bullpen arms. I'd have to check and see what Arkansas and Clemson are doing.

I think you probably need at least 3 quality starters and 1 quality bullpen arm, and then have them get hot at the right time.
 
there is no single formula to be a good baseball team. you gotta score runs and prevent runs.

last year, lsu had a super thin pitching staff and pretty shoddy defense overall but elite top-end talent and a pretty deep lineup.
 
I would be interested to read more intelligent minded folks' (surrounding the game of baseball than I am) thoughts on what's going on with Gill defensively.

I believe he was the top WAR defensive catcher in America last year, and this year it seems like he cannot stop anything back there. His arm is pretty good at getting guys out at second, but is it just a higher velocity? Turf vs grass? Combo of the two, or something else completely?

Maybe he is still elite and my anecdotal evidence is just wrong.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I would be interested to read more intelligent minded folks' (surrounding the game of baseball than I am) thoughts on what's going on with Gill defensively.

I believe he was the top WAR defensive catcher in America last year, and this year it seems like he cannot stop anything back there. His arm is pretty good at getting guys out at second, but is it just a higher velocity? Turf vs grass? Combo of the two, or something else completely?

Maybe he is still elite and my anecdotal evidence is just wrong.
Click to expand...

He should improve defensively as he becomes more comfortable with the pitching staff.

Catchers have to learn the staff over time.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I would be interested to read more intelligent minded folks' (surrounding the game of baseball than I am) thoughts on what's going on with Gill defensively.

I believe he was the top WAR defensive catcher in America last year, and this year it seems like he cannot stop anything back there. His arm is pretty good at getting guys out at second, but is it just a higher velocity? Turf vs grass? Combo of the two, or something else completely?

Maybe he is still elite and my anecdotal evidence is just wrong.
Click to expand...

defensive war seems to be just based on pitch framing and controlling baserunning based on the data that is available
 
Agree that the pitching depth on 2023 WF Baseball was historically good. That said, can't agree that to "win a NC, a team needs 4 quality starting pitchers and 2 quality bullpen arms".

Last year's LSU team had very little pitching depth. They did have the best pure arm in college baseball since Stephen Strasburg, in Paul Skenes, but after that, here are the ERAs of their pitchers with the three most LSU starts in 2023:

  • Ty Floyd 4.23 ERA
  • Thatcher Hurd 5.68 (it was actually worse heading into the NCAAT)
  • Christian Little 7.79
LSU also had no closer. Incredibly, no pitcher on the LSU staff had more than three saves on the season (which has to be the lowest by a mile on a team that won the Natty). By comparison, Cam Minacci had 13. Sean Sulivan spent most of the season as the starter also had three saves.

What LSU did have was a killer lineup, and a great starting pitcher, and then a bunch of arms that pretty much sucked all year, but somehow found their groove in cavernous Rosenblatt Stadium. FWIW, the runner-up Florida, also had no pitching depth.

FWIW, as unexpectedly rough as WF's season has gone, 2024 LSU is currently 3-9 in the SEC... THREE AND NINE... they may not make the SEC Tourney.

This WF team has a long way to go to get to Omaha, less than 10 days ago UNC swept the Deacs at home, but WF does have the arms with the talent to turn it around in May and June. No team has the projectible arms with MLB draft grades like Burns, Hartle, Massey on the starting staff. Roland already proved that he can pitch on the highest level of college baseball, and there are several other arms that have the talent to "figure it out": Leffew, Morningstar, Wade, Ray, Johnston, Gunther, Shenosky...
 
IAppreciateIt said:
defensive war seems to be just based on pitch framing and controlling baserunning based on the data that is available
Click to expand...
Pitch framing is not a component - defensive WAR for catchers is mostly based on stopping runners from advancing - so stopping stolen bases and limiting passed balls. It's not always super helpful, but I think in college a ball is more likely to be labeled a WP (even if it should be blacked/handled) than a PB. Also, isn't WAR a comparative stat, in that someone's WAR rating is dependent not only on your own skill, but the skill (or lack thereof) of the person behind you on the depth chart?
 
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