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Are you Libs getting worried yet?

bobknightfan said:
Not that it really matters, but I was wondering how cville deac could post that "Eagles" had a great point about those four Tea Party candidates....when he was simply replying to what I had posted. Then I remembered that cville has me on ignore, and Eagles didn't quote me in his reply, so cville was "in the dark", so to speak.
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Did you get out a shoot any Pub voters this weekend?
 
So apparently Romney is going after PA, we had a massive flood of ads this weekend. I didn't realize until I went to visit my parents that robot campaign calls were a thing. Has anyone ever gone "hey, a recorded call from Clint Eastwood! That does it, I think I'll vote for [insert politician's name here]."
 
avalon said:
So apparently Romney is going after PA, we had a massive flood of ads this weekend. I didn't realize until I went to visit my parents that robot campaign calls were a thing. Has anyone ever gone "hey, a recorded call from Clint Eastwood! That does it, I think I'll vote for [insert politician's name here]."
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I think the robo calls are more to energize the base to vote.
 
WFFaithful said:
I think the robo calls are more to energize the base to vote.
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Yes, they are a get out the vote tool.

also the people who are like IM NOT GONNA VOTE IF I GET ONE MORE CALL are full of shit.
 
WFFaithful said:
I think the robo calls are more to energize the base to vote.
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Hm, do you think they send them out to everyone or to select voters? Because it seems like it would annoy supporters of the opposition (spurring them to vote) just as much as it would rally supporters.
 
avalon said:
Hm, do you think they send them out to everyone or to select voters? Because it seems like it would annoy supporters of the opposition (spurring them to vote) just as much as it would rally supporters.
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Select voters.

I think the Dems have something similiar but the GOP has a thing called "Voter Vault." Its a huge database of registered voters and it tells you people's party affiliations (if available) OR whether they voted in a R or D primary. If they vote in an R primary, they are considered an R, etc.

They are also ranked for their voting record, aka a "Perfect Voter" would have a ranking for 4 as in the last 4 elections they have voted. If you have a PV 2, then you most likely only vote in major elections. If you have a PV1 you most likely only vote in Presidential.

You can gear your robo calls to these people, its not just a random number the phone dials.
 
Ah, thanks, that makes sense. (And my parents did get Dem ones too, I just mentioned Clint Eastwood because that's way funnier than Ed Rendell.)
 
avalon said:
Ah, thanks, that makes sense. (And my parents did get Dem ones too, I just mentioned Clint Eastwood because that's way funnier than Ed Rendell.)
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I've actually phone banked a couple of times when you call "hostile" voters and its so much fun. Its also a great tool to ensure your system is being effective in its identification of voters.

I'll also add, you can personally put notes in Voter Vault, so every time that person is contacted there is a record and take for instance you call a PV3 who is supposed to be a Republican but its BobKnightfan in Gwinnett County GA, you can change his party affiliation, etc.
 
Silver is now predicting 307 EVs for Obama, 86% chance of Obama victory. Even Rasmussen has moved to a tie. The battleground state polls are all showing Obama ahead except for NC and FL (which is extremely close). If Romney wins the 538 model will be exposed as extremely flawed, to say the least.

The GOP commentator of the day on CNN at the gym this morning indicated they are counting on the enthusiasm of their voters being greater than Dem voters and that notwithstanding the polls there will be a bunch of enthusiastic GOPers on election day while the Dem voters will not show up like they are projected to show up. Seems like wishful thinking to me but who knows.
 
If Romney wins, people will pick on Silver, but it will expose polls in general.
 
PhDeac said:
If Romney wins, people will pick on Silver, but it will expose polls in general.
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It's very hard to sift through all the noise and cheerleading today, but the places I generally turn to for news (Morning Joe to start) say all signs are pointing toward the President winning a lot of 1.0% races. He might win a slim popular, big electoral victory. It is hard for me to see the scenario where Romney loses Iowa and wins New Hampshire. That would be a bizarre outcome.
 
Deacon923 said:
Silver is now predicting 307 EVs for Obama, 86% chance of Obama victory. Even Rasmussen has moved to a tie. The battleground state polls are all showing Obama ahead except for NC and FL (which is extremely close). If Romney wins the 538 model will be exposed as extremely flawed, to say the least.

The GOP commentator of the day on CNN at the gym this morning indicated they are counting on the enthusiasm of their voters being greater than Dem voters and that notwithstanding the polls there will be a bunch of enthusiastic GOPers on election day while the Dem voters will not show up like they are projected to show up. Seems like wishful thinking to me but who knows.
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If early voting is any indication, they're in trouble. Dems haven't had any trouble so far outpacing the number of Pub voters in a lot of important states.
 
dirtydeac said:
obama-confronts-2010election-results.jpg
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Branco is consistently one of the worst cartoonist. A step up from Bonsteel though.
 
This election is reminding me increasingly of 04. I absolutely believe the Pubs have an "enthusiasm" advantage this year because so many want Obama out, like Dems with Bush, but I don't think that will be enough.
 
Nate Silver now has it at 315.3 EV, 92.2% chance to win, and 50.9% popular vote for Obama. FL is the only real swing state at 53% chance of going to Obama.
 
If Silver thinks Obama is going to pull 51% of the vote-- something that he hasn't done in any of the polls except the outliers that give Dems a serious sampling advantage-- then I wouldn't be counting on Silver too much.
 
Silver only has a sliver (< 1%) going to anybody but Obama and Romney.
 
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