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Army Post-Game Discussion / Indiana Game Week Thread

liveanddiedeac said:
The thing that bothers me is I just don't have enough confidence in our offense to see us winning any kind of shoot out, so hopefully our defense plays well and gets some turnovers. I certainly think we can win, but I think our odds are a lot better if it a lowish scoring games, as opposed to a higher scoring game.
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This just in - team that tends to score lots of points will have better chance of losing if scoring fewer points.

Just messing with you, ladd
 
If I'm doing the Sagarin math right he has us favored by .17 points hosting Indiana, regardless of how we compare to WKU.
 
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DeacDaddy said:
This just in - team that tends to score lots of points will have better chance of losing if scoring fewer points.

Just messing with you, ladd
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LOL, you know what I mean though. I just don't see us winning a 45-44 type game, but I could us winning a 28-27 type game. I'll take a win anyway we can get it though.
 
Yeah I think if we have a shot at winning this we hold them to 21-28 points (which I think is impressive with this offense coming to town). We gotta get some points off good field position through a TO or special teams.
 
SpringChicken said:
If I'm doing the Sagarin math right he has us favored by .17 points hosting Indiana, regardless of how we compare to WKU.
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If you use the predictor model (most accurate, even though it's not well connected at this point), Wake is favored by .93 (add three points for homefield).

That obviously includes Wolford, and as mentioned before probably accounts for approximately 3-4 points in Vegas' eyes.
 
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liveanddiedeac said:
So, handicap this game LSU vs. Syracuse. First with a mini Syracuse front 7 and then a full-size Syracuse front 7. I'll go with Cuse -28 and Cuse -50, respectively.
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Full-size front 7 is like FBS v. FCS - do they even put that on the board?
 
If the IU football love stems from their Western Kentucky win, remember that an absolutely awful Vandy team dominated WKU this year (Vandy outgained WKU 385-246; Vandy held the ball for 13 more minutes; Vandy out-first downed WKU 20-11), but lost due to -3 turnover margin. The same WKU team that Vandy held to 14 points and 246 total yards; had 35 points and 568 yards against IU. FWIW, WF's defense is better than Vandy's. Realize that there is danger in comparative scores, and if WF continues to turn the ball over, we will lose, but hard to understand why so many here are acting like IU should be a prohibitive favorite.
 
Knorr

Pilchard said:
If the IU football love stems from their Western Kentucky win, remember that an absolutely awful Vandy team dominated WKU this year (Vandy outgained WKU 385-246; Vandy held the ball for 13 more minutes; Vandy out-first downed WKU 20-11), but lost due to -3 turnover margin. The same WKU team that Vandy held to 14 points and 246 total yards; had 35 points and 568 yards against IU. FWIW, WF's defense is better than Vandy's. Realize that there is danger in comparative scores, and if WF continues to turn the ball over, we will lose, but hard to understand why so many here are acting like IU should be a prohibitive favorite.
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Folks seem to be forgetting that Knorr is their DC. The same guy who could never create a passrush and played 10 yards off of receivers, and was constantly victimized for first downs on 3rd and 19. He is now plying his craft at IU. Hopefully, he has gotten even dumber over the past 2 years.
 
Pilchard said:
If the IU football love stems from their Western Kentucky win, remember that an absolutely awful Vandy team dominated WKU this year (Vandy outgained WKU 385-246; Vandy held the ball for 13 more minutes; Vandy out-first downed WKU 20-11), but lost due to -3 turnover margin. The same WKU team that Vandy held to 14 points and 246 total yards; had 35 points and 568 yards against IU. FWIW, WF's defense is better than Vandy's. Realize that there is danger in comparative scores, and if WF continues to turn the ball over, we will lose, but hard to understand why so many here are acting like IU should be a prohibitive favorite.
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It's not IU football love, it's the reality that they have a very good offense, not a good defense. On the offense side of the ball they are legit, doesn't matter what it says on their jersey. Now maybe some don't want to admit that playing a bottom tier Big 10 team is a real test for us, but at this point it is, as we're a bottom tier ACC team. If we win Saturday it will be a very good win and frankly a big win for Clawson this early in his tenure.
 
liveanddiedeac said:
So, handicap this game LSU vs. Syracuse. First with a mini Syracuse front 7 and then a full-size Syracuse front 7. I'll go with Cuse -28 and Cuse -50, respectively.
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Syracuse is down to their 3rd or 4th QB now. The kid who played us is injured.

I'd figure it's name the score time for LSU....AND Miles won't stop at 62-0 either....YIKES !
 
HONDO2 said:
Syracuse is down to their 3rd or 4th QB now. The kid who played us is injured.

I'd figure it's name the score time for LSU....AND Miles won't stop at 62-0 either....YIKES !
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Dude, but Syracuse's front 7!!!
 
Cuse is banged up, but this is a let-down spot for LSU. LSU will win, but I could see it as relatively low scoring and ugly. Something like 31-6.
 
jamesda3 said:
I don't get how everyone is expecting us to get blown out given IU's competition to date
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I can help. The reason why is that when you look at their first five or six games last year before they lost their pro quarterback and other injuries they beat Missouri and played other very good teams close.

They're even better this year. On paper the game won't be competitive.

Fortunately the games not played on paper, it's in our house, on pro-turf, they know we're not very good, so who knows, anything can happen.
 
Indiana -3.5 will probably move to -5. I fully expect Hinton to start. I still don't know if I would take Indiana -5 on the road. May be a good value bet to take Wake moneyline if you think Hinton is going to play well.
 
deaconbd said:
I can help. The reason why is that when you look at their first five or six games last year before they lost their pro quarterback and other injuries they beat Missouri and played other very good teams close.

They're even better this year. On paper the game won't be competitive.

Fortunately the games not played on paper, it's in our house, on pro-turf, they know we're not very good, so who knows, anything can happen.
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Neither team is very good, but Indiana's offense is solid. In fact both of these teams likely suck but for the time being one of us needs to win and I'd rather us both be 3-1 than us sitting at 2-2 with the brunt of the schedule ahead of us while we have almost no chance at a bowl (which is a long shot anyways).
 
I just checked cbsports.com rankings and WKU is number 51 and we're 80 something so WKU is ranked much higher than many ACC schools
 
Doesn't really change that Indiana isn't very good which is backed up by their mid-80's rank in the F +/- rankings if we're using rankings to ballpark it.
 
We can only hope that the game is similar to the 2 LA-Monroe games where both years they were much more explosive than we were, they had twice as many first downs and yards, but somehow our bend but not break defense kept us in the game. So both games were close as we lost only 21-19 and 17-10. If instead Indiana converts the 3rd and short plays that were not converted in that game it won't even be close.

And that assumes we don't lose the turnover battle. So everything has to go right for us to even be competitive and let's hope it does. Would be a great win for the program.
 
I think the game will be competitive unless someone plays incredibly well or incredibly awful - the teams are relatively evenly matched. I mean we're +3.5 with the backup QB likely starting.
 
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