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Avengers Endfinity Wargame Mafia; MAFIA WINS

TownieDeac said:
between numbers telling us that mafia were votes on knight and tcc telling us mafia were single votes, we've really narrowed the list
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ryalaman said:
We should probably also look at the people who voted for people with < 6 and > 1 votes too. Could be some blending in there. Making progress
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Coincidence and intention are two sides of the same tapestry
 
I think ryala is more likely to be mafia than the “replacement” or “average” player remaining.
 
Eagles_Legendz said:
mk just so i'm clear...it seems like the most likely scenario is dv7 breadcrumbed a role throughout this game to claim it later as mafia, only to have his teammate claim the same role & dv7 still claim it this round without alleging having any powers. that's what i just read right?
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Breadcrumbing a vanilla role is almost too ridiculous to even think about, and the timelines are hilarious (yeah, you had time to post like 10 words in addition to your vote right at the deadline but not "I am actually groot"). Everything about it is so terrible that most people maf just kick out of it because there is absolutely no way that this is a rational play to continue to make.
 
deacvision7 said:
ahhh

***switch to wf3***

wtf is going on
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Like, this post doesn't square with "oh, the timing just worked out that I read his claim exactly 30 seconds before the deadline and had to vote for him". Like, at all.
 
Also, I am also drunk at this moment and nearly everything I say will be wrong
 
I say this because I am realizing that I didn't actually understand any of what was happening with my last 2 posts.

My updated hypothesis is that the dv7 posts are bad but they're some int overflow shit where he's maybe not the play today
 
I see Townie is posting in the political board but not over here. Looks like lurking, probably mafia!
 
For real though, this deck is coming along nicely. Excited to share our learnings and get everyone bought in on the DS action plan vs our 2020 OKRs. Might need to have some prioritization conversations with our cross functional partners to make sure they have the bandwidth to get the ball rolling by our end of Q2 timeline
 
ryalaman said:
Breadcrumbing a vanilla role is almost too ridiculous to even think about, and the timelines are hilarious (yeah, you had time to post like 10 words in addition to your vote right at the deadline but not "I am actually groot"). Everything about it is so terrible that most people maf just kick out of it because there is absolutely no way that this is a rational play to continue to make.
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Breadcrumbing a vanilla role is worthless in a game that has safe claims.
 
romanovKU said:
End of round Townie claims Groot.

(dV7 claimed groot today)

Dv7 switches OFF townie at the buzzer after he sees townie claim groot.

Riddle me that? We can majo dv7 anytime.
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Please reread my post. Due to where my vote to townie landed, I only saw that two others also switched to Townie, so I switched back to WFU03 since it was 430; I wanted to create a tie -- I then clicked back a page and saw Townie's BS post after God called night.

Had a reply all keyed up saying I knew Townie was lying with a switch to him to post and was refreshing in another tab to try and be first. Obviously there is no way I can prove this now, but that's what happened.
 
Eagles_Legendz said:
mk just so i'm clear...it seems like the most likely scenario is dv7 breadcrumbed a role throughout this game to claim it later as mafia, only to have his teammate claim the same role & dv7 still claim it this round without alleging having any powers. that's what i just read right?
Click to expand...

Eagles_Legendz said:
what are the odds dv7 is being truthful? 37%? in what world does townie claim a role dv7 was apparently coding into his messages as teammates???
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The bolded part contradicts the earlier part of that post and your preceding post and is the correct logical choice.

Why would I claim Groot if Townie already did so and we were mafia together? That doesn't make any sense.
My guess is that Townie got confused about safe claims and said the wrong thing while under pressure at the end of last round.

PhDeac said:
I got a laugh that DV7 had to explain his breadcrumb because no one would have gotten it.
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I've never seen any of these Avenger movies and had to look up Groot.
 
ryalaman said:
Breadcrumbing a vanilla role is almost too ridiculous to even think about, and the timelines are hilarious (yeah, you had time to post like 10 words in addition to your vote right at the deadline but not "I am actually groot"). Everything about it is so terrible that most people maf just kick out of it because there is absolutely no way that this is a rational play to continue to make.
Click to expand...

ryalaman said:
Like, this post doesn't square with "oh, the timing just worked out that I read his claim exactly 30 seconds before the deadline and had to vote for him". Like, at all.
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Again, I didn't see that Townie was claiming Groot until after God declared night. I only saw the other two switches to Townie, made pretty much simultaneously to mine at 4:29 and wanted to switch back to make it a tie.
I typed those few extra words in the 20 seconds I had between posts because I'm really good with my home keys! #humblebrag

bym051d said:
Breadcrumbing a vanilla role is worthless in a game that has safe claims.
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Maybe a learning moment for me but that's what I decided to do d2 once I saw the role descriptions of other vanilla characters.

Thought process was that maybe that could help if A) I said/did something to get myself in trouble *likely!*; 2) I somehow made the end game. *not likely*; or D) I unknowingly have a stone that makes Thanos more powerful *no clue on likelihood*
 
Vanilla civ should go gentle into that good night yet DV7 writing more on this page than ever before.

I have a thesis in the eagles roleblock/jail coming before end of day. Popcorn!
 
Wonder why Townie, someone who hasn’t watched Marvel movies would claim Groot unless it were provided as a safe claim.

If it’s a safe claim, why would it be a named civ?

Ergo...
 
Eagles roleblock jailing thesis

As a preface: if someone has been roleblocked besides eagles, please say so. Would affect the following:

Six possible universes exist in my mind. I’ve never seen an Indy with roleblock:

1. Eagles is civ / mafia roleblock
2. Eagles is Indy / mafia roleblock
3. Eagles is mafia / mafia roleblock
4. Eagles is civ / civ jailing
5. Eagles is Indy / civ jailing
6. Eagles is mafia / civ jailing
7. Eagles is civ / no roleblock
8. Eagles is Indy / no roleblock
9. Eagles is maf / no roleblock

1. Mafia doesn’t know the setup so they can’t know if we have a watcher. Therefore they wouldn’t want to stick their roleblocker out in the wind like that 3 nights in a row. Small chance it is an unwatchable roleblock but I’ve never seen that before and seems overpowered if it can be used on the same person consecutively.
2. Same as #1 + civs are getting lucky.
3. This was one of two reasons I started drafting this post. Using the watcher existence logic from #1, this would be a long con play that would get their roleblocker sacrificed, but nearly clear eagles. That said, eagles would likely get hit on a cop investigation. We know there is a godfather in the game so unless we never see a godfather flip otherwise, we are probably safe here because it wouldn’t make sense to sac the rb for a non-gf eagles. If a gf never flips and a mafia rb flips and eagles is alive late, ice his ass.
4. There’s no logic to disprove this. 4-6 are equally likely. Only downside is if Eagles is a powerful civ. Cop should have a report on eagles so should be fine.
5. There’s no logic to disprove this. 4-6 are equally likely. Cop should have a report on eagles so should be fine.
6. There’s no logic to disprove this. 4-6 are equally likely. Cop should have a report on eagles so should be fine.
7. This was the other reason I started drafting this post. Eagles right away claimed he could be jailed d2 which seemed weird to me. I would think the optimal play, if eagles is actually jailed, would be to stay quiet and hope he is jailed again and mafia tries to hit him, causing a miss hit. Yet he claims it. This is an amazing poetry play I wish I thought of if Eagles is faking these jailings. There’d be no way for maf to know unless they had a watcher themselves, which is unlikely but not impossible. I’d say it would be worth the risk as civ-eagles to try to stay alive by claiming a fake jailing. That said, that is 100% my play style and not really eagles.
8. Same as 7 only if Indy, the mfer has a bullet proof vest probably and this jail claim is how he is planning on explaining surviving a night hit. It would also obfuscate the would-be miss hit in mafia’s eyes. Would be a “home run” play if he avoids being watched but prob not too likely.
9. Same as 8 but I see super low utility in it since we should have a watcher and mafia typically needs “singles” and not “home runs” to win.

I post this to call people’s attention to possibilities #3, #7 and maybe #8. All of this said, I’m tabling eagles because occam says we are dealing with #4-6 and a cop has a report on his alignment and none of this matters.
 
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