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Basketball Expectations for the future

deacfreke2 said:
Not that anyone cares about the NIT, but the thing is it's much harder to make that field than it used to be. Before the NCAA bought it out, the NIT tried to get "name" schools that they thought would sell tickets. The tourney field was money driven.

Now, with the guaranteed bids to the small conference regular season winners who lost in the their tournaments, there aren't that many spots available. This past NIT saw only 19 teams get "at large" bids. Before the NCAA takeover, there were 40 teams getting at large bids.

Wonder if we missed the NIT next year but had a decent record and the CBI extended an invite, would we accept it. Oregon was the only "BCS" team that accepted a CBI bid this year and they won it.
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Didn't we turn down a CBI bid a few years ago? For some reason I have the sense that Wellman would turn down an invite even if we got one.
 
KidA23 said:
Didn't we turn down a CBI bid a few years ago? For some reason I have the sense that Wellman would turn down an invite even if we got one.
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Not with the youth of the team imo. It would be dumb to turn down any chance at extra games.
 
RacerDeac said:
My how Wake Forest, and it's fanbase, have fallen.
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JackBurden said:
That's roughly what I expect given our current coaching situation. I would be far, far from satisfied with those results.
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Kent said:
+1

I have never seen a campaign nearly as effective at quickly and effectively lowering expectations. It's surreal.
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I've seen this sentiment a ton around here, and I don't really understand it. I get the fact that the realistic expectations for the team going forward are much lower than a program of our status should normally expect. That I wouldn't argue with at all. But you shouldn't develop expectations based on the historical success of the program, you should develop them based on the pieces you actually have to work with.

The implication of these posts and others on both boards seems to be that either 1. People are purposefully campaigning with (unreasonably) lower expectations than what should be realistic in order to make our coach look better in the future or 2. Due entirely (or almost entirely) to the perceived shittiness of our coach that expectations are realistically lowered to unacceptable levels.

I think both of those are largely crap. There are lots of reasons why expectations for the next 2-3 years should be tempered and I believe the ability of Bz is pretty far down the list. Hell, a lot of it was just bad luck. In back to back recruiting classes we had two guys who were good enough to leave early, followed by a three man class with one superstar early entry, one guy who lost his mind, and one guy who has been a major disappointment. We were left with a team with no size or rebounding ability, not a single above average defensive player on the entire roster, and 1 average ball handler who after being injured most of the year hasn't shown he has the ability to be a PG yet (not giving up on Tony at all, but it is what it is right now).

That is a really bad spot to be in (none of which is the fault of our coach) and expectations should be made accordingly. I'm not trying to absolve coach Bz from all blame for how bad the previous season was. We should have been better, particularly in the OOC. And on paper, the 2011 class isn't one that is going to get us immediately back on track. And that's absolutely fair criticism. I'm probably willing to give him more leeway than others are for his first class (but damn I would love to see Katenda sign). We'll see how they perform on the court. But anything other than a UNC or Kentucky-like class wouldn't make a major difference in our record until year 3 (their second year), imo. And I don't think anyone expected a coach to recruit at that level.

I guess my point is, you can certainly have quibbles on the micro level. A few games better, sure. But on the macro level, anyone that was expecting anything better than crappy year 1, slightly less crappy year 2, bubble team at best year three was being unrealistic no matter who the coach was, considering the state of the program when he took over.
 
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tiltdeac said:
I've seen this sentiment a ton around here, and I don't really understand it. I get the fact that the realistic expectations for the team going forward are much lower than a program of our status should normally expect. That I wouldn't argue with at all. But you shouldn't develop expectations based on the historical success of the program, you should develop them based on the pieces you actually have to work with.

The implication of these posts and others on both boards seems to be that either 1. People are purposefully campaigning with (unreasonably) lower expectations than what should be realistic in order to make our coach look better in the future or 2. Due entirely (or almost entirely) to the perceived shittiness of our coach that expectations are realistically lowered to unacceptable levels.

I think both of those are largely crap. There are lots of reasons why expectations for the next 2-3 years should be tempered and I believe the ability of Bz is pretty far down the list. Hell, a lot of it was just bad luck. In back to back recruiting classes we had two guys who were good enough to leave early, followed by a three man class with one superstar early entry, one guy who lost his mind, and one guy who has been a major disappointment. We were left with a team with no size or rebounding ability, not a single above average defensive player on the entire roster, and 1 average ball handler who after being injured most of the year hasn't shown he has the ability to be a PG yet (not giving up on Tony at all, but it is what it is right now).

That is a really bad spot to be in (none of which is the fault of our coach) and expectations should be made accordingly. I'm not trying to absolve coach Bz from all blame for how bad the previous season was. We should have been better, particularly in the OOC. And on paper, the 2011 class isn't one that is going to get us immediately back on track. And that's absolutely fair criticism. I'm probably willing to give him more leeway than others are for his first class (but damn I would love to see Katenda sign). We'll see how they perform on the court. But anything other than a UNC or Kentucky-like class wouldn't make a major difference in our record until year 3 (their second year), imo. And I don't think anyone expected a coach to recruit at that level.

I guess my point is, you can certainly have quibbles on the micro level. A few games better, sure. But on the macro level, anyone that was expecting anything better than crappy year 1, slightly less crappy year 2, bubble team at best year three was being unrealistic no matter who the coach was, considering the state of the program when he took over.
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i think more highly of our players than you, and am less willing to make excuses for our coach and discount the impact of freshmen. inheriting our sophomore and freshmen classes should be enough to get back to the tournament within three years. we have had at least one freshman starter every year since 2006, so i believe they can and do have an impact on the record right away. a few wins a year is often the difference between an nit team and a bubble team in any event, so im not sure why expecting that few games makes my post crap.
 
My expectations are that we are in the running for some type of post season tourney at or above .500 every year and that for the most part is what I am accustomed to as a Deac fan. I don't think we should have to settle for 12 wins and I do not think we should ever expect to have just 12-14 wins. We should expect every year to be in the top 5 in the ACC.
 
It also does not take into account what will or should be acceptable after these projections doofus has offered. It's not as if doofus is saying "and then by year 3 we will be almost tourney bound and that will be great and greeted with joy by all the fanbase and we should be happy and satisfied!!!"

Does it kind of suck that we are looking at it in those increments as a measure of improvement? Yeah, probably. By him posting that is he saying that this will be our four year cycle from now until forever and we should be happy with that? Of course not.

This, I believe, is a reasonable expectation for our improvement from where we are now. I hope and believe we are capable of exceeding these projections with our personnel. If you want to comment on how expectations seem to be lowered because of this past year, then fine, but no one is saying we should be content with a four year cycle like this and be happy with it.

It is my hope that, in these three or four years, however you want to view it, we lay the foundation to being a regular tournament team with the ability to always go deeper than expected, but with the occasional years where we are expected to be up there and make a run. Which is more or less how we have been the last 20 years, but I'm not entirely sure it has been based on a sustainable model for Wake Forest during all that time (maybe that is LOWF). I don't fault us for wanting to take a different approach and being up front and clear about it, however it was packaged and sold to the fans and I am no Wellman apologist.

There has been no evidence to this point, at least tangibly, that [Redacted] can take us there, but I don't think anyone is saying that they would be satisfied if the apex of the [Redacted] era was this third year projection. To dismiss it as such without offering a counter projection with opinion to support that is being somewhat shallow, in my opinion.

Disagree, say what you expect from now, not what you expect from what should or could have been. A lot of the LOWF arguments are completely legit and I do think people subconsciously use it as a crutch, but I don't think this is the reasoning of the OP.

So what do you think the reasonable expectations should be?
 
I think the op is reasonably close to what I expect, given our who/where we are as a program. Not "happy" we're where we are, but I can live with where we're going IF we continually improve and become a relevant program again in 2-3 years. And a better after that.


I suppose I'm willing to allow myself to hope we might make the NCAA tournament in two years.
 
Some good posts ITT. I think the thing I see some people struggling with the word "expectations" I suppose you can "expect" Wake to be >.500 every season and at a minimum content for a tournament spot, but if those are your expectations for next season then you're not living in reality.

The OP clearly meant realistic possibilities for the next three seasons, not what it would take to be truly satisfied. No Wake fan should be satisfied with a 14-16 record next year, but it's still a realistic expectation. If that expectation is met, then I'm even okay with it being considered a positive sign for the direction of the program. But that's still not the same thing as satisfaction.

This program has found itself in a pretty crappy place. Wake fans rightfully expect more than expectations of mediocrity for their basketball team, and I sincerely hope we can have realistic expectations of regular NCAA tournament success.

I think an interesting parallel measure would be what it would take for you to be "satisfied" with Wake Forest basketball. That would be a much better gauge of LOWF sentiments, etc. In fact, to avoid muddling this thread I'll start a different thread along those lines.
 
Being relaistic about the talent we have is not LOWF.

Thinking we can't the top talent or win IS LOWF.
 
RJKarl said:
Being relaistic about the talent we have is not LOWF.

Thinking we can't the top talent or win IS LOWF.
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I hate it when someone manages to condense my post into 20 words. Pos rep for RJ
 
tintinisahottie said:
I'm expecting something like

2011-12: 12-20
2012-13: 16-14
2013-14: 19-10 and on the bubble of the tournament

And that's where the danger comes. If he makes the tournament that year, even if it's barely into the tourney and y'all do nothing there, you're inclined to keep him. That sets the program on a path of mediocrity for years. Seen it with Herb,
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Any guess who after Duke has made the most NCAA tournaments in a row in the league right now, and what that number is?
 
deacfreke2 said:
Now, with the guaranteed bids to the small conference regular season winners who lost in the their tournaments, there aren't that many spots available. This past NIT saw only 19 teams get "at large" bids. Before the NCAA takeover, there were 40 teams getting at large bids.
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Before the NCAA took over it was a 32-team field, so there weren't 40 at-large berths.
 
The only reason we shouldn't expect postseason this upcoming year would be if our players or coach are wildly overrated. We supposedly have the tools to get it done. The new coach and youth excuses can't be used this year.
 
Sorry, but I am disappointed if we don't make the College Cup, a decent bowl and the sweet sixteen every year.

Maybe I should be more LOWF, but if MSD expects excellence in the classroom, they should expect it in athletics as well.
 
I expect us to have a 12 win season this year and then I expect Bzz to take an NBA assistant job sometime in June/July after the NBA regular season ends leaving us completely and utterly fucked.

Sorry, but that's how I see it playing out.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
No tourney
No tourney

Bz fired

No tourney
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This x10000

Not meeting my "expectations" as far as where I hope Wake bball would be, but is my expectation on how I think we'll perform. Hope they can prove me wrong.
 
I expect us to be pretty good when the current freshmen are seniors. They have high ceilings, and I fully expect them to develop in to above average college players.

I continue to believe, however, that unless we get bigger, and fast, we are going to have serious problems that will hinder us from ever reaching our potential.
 
I think we win 4 ACC games next year. No Post Season.

The clamor to fire Buzz grows, but Ron has to stay with his boy.

The next year we barely make the NIT, and then choke in the first round. Dino laughs.

Ron again sticks with his boy, pointing to the NIT as progress.

The next year, we are on the bubble for the NCAA, but make the NIT.

Ron is FINALLY forced to fire his boy.


Why can't we just avoid this and fire this turd after next year? Every article, every interview with him is negative. He just sucks the air out of the room. We are taking the NC State path to mediocrity. Hell, they have a better coach than us now. Sure, he banged a college girl, but our coach couldn't get laid if he was the last man on earth.
 
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