basketball study
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bigdoublezero
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Nobody is comparing streak shooting to coin flips. Nobody.
FckVwls
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Well written post Scooter, but you are not understanding the point that the stats guys are trying to make. The first part of your post about the coin flipping is spot on.
The idea behind the statistical analysis of the hot head is this: We are trying to find out how similar (or not similar) the patterns are between a large sample of coin flipping and a large sample of basketball shots.
Assume we flip a coin a ten thousands times and chart the hot steaks and cold streaks. In the end, it will come out about 50% heads and 50% tails with some crazy steaks in both directions.
Then we have a 50% basketball shooter take ten thousand shots in game situations. It is very interesting to track how similar the patterns are between a random event (coin flipping) and and this act of skill (basketball shooting).
In the end the basketball shooter will also come out around 50%, but if hot and cold hand was real, there would be more streaks of long makes and more streaks of long misses than you would see in the coin. The basketball shooter would make 5 in a row and miss 5 in a row more often than the coin would.
In doing this analysis, it has been determined that the basketball shooter will have streaks pretty close to that of the coin. This is a fact that can easily be determined by just crunching very basic game data.
However, research is indicating that a part of the reason for that might be that shooters take harder shots after making a few in a row. Basketball is such a dynamic game it is really hard to account for such an affect. So it is definitely possible that a hot hand exists and there are counteracting factors in these data studies. Probably are.
But it definitely isn't tooo much and basketball shots are definitely more independent than they are correlated to previous attempts. Basketball shooting isn't anything like flipping a coin. It is just useful to see how closely the patterns follow a random event.
The idea behind the statistical analysis of the hot head is this: We are trying to find out how similar (or not similar) the patterns are between a large sample of coin flipping and a large sample of basketball shots.
Assume we flip a coin a ten thousands times and chart the hot steaks and cold streaks. In the end, it will come out about 50% heads and 50% tails with some crazy steaks in both directions.
Then we have a 50% basketball shooter take ten thousand shots in game situations. It is very interesting to track how similar the patterns are between a random event (coin flipping) and and this act of skill (basketball shooting).
In the end the basketball shooter will also come out around 50%, but if hot and cold hand was real, there would be more streaks of long makes and more streaks of long misses than you would see in the coin. The basketball shooter would make 5 in a row and miss 5 in a row more often than the coin would.
In doing this analysis, it has been determined that the basketball shooter will have streaks pretty close to that of the coin. This is a fact that can easily be determined by just crunching very basic game data.
However, research is indicating that a part of the reason for that might be that shooters take harder shots after making a few in a row. Basketball is such a dynamic game it is really hard to account for such an affect. So it is definitely possible that a hot hand exists and there are counteracting factors in these data studies. Probably are.
But it definitely isn't tooo much and basketball shots are definitely more independent than they are correlated to previous attempts. Basketball shooting isn't anything like flipping a coin. It is just useful to see how closely the patterns follow a random event.