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basketball study

This current team wouldn't know. As soon as someone shows an inkling of a hot hand, they get benched.
 
Real time analysis may get to the point that we get NBA Jam style graphics to show the hot players.
 
Pardon, but a study ? By whom ? And they got paid for this ?

I've never met ANYONE who ever played hoops who didn't understand/believe in this....aka, CONFIDENCE....also aka as FEELIN'IT....DUH !

Can I too get paid now Egon ?

:stupid:

BTW, the Paige kid at UNC says hi !
 
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I have always coached that the hot hand has as much to do with the hot spot (that sounded way too sexual). We always coached that you wanted to have players repeat shots as much as possible during a game if they have made a basket. So if you guy hits a corner three early then you try to put that player in a a similar position as quickly as possible. Shooting is repetitive motion and muscle memory so the quicker you can put the player in the same or similar shooting situation the greater his chances of making the basket.

Repetition is everything in shooting. Give someone a shot that has similar qualities (distance/angle) to a shot they have already made and I believe they will be more likely to make it (IE: they have the hot hand).
 
The Saber dorks must be fuming right now.
 
So basically: Previous studies that have debunked hot hand theories didn't account for fact that players take more difficult shots (or the defense pays the player more attention) after a few consecutive makes. And therefore although the shooting % on the 5th shot after four makes isn't any higher than shot 1, the player is actually "hot" because the 5th shot will on average be a worse quality look.

Only 1-2% affect though according to this new study. Still very small.
 
Any "study" that said the hot hand doesn't exist is nonsensical.
 
anybody who has ever played basketball at any level, including community leagues, knows the hot hand exists
 
Milhouse said:
anybody who has ever played basketball at any level, including community leagues, knows the hot hand exists
Click to expand...

probably exists more in community leagues than in the NBA tbh
 
Not only is the hot hand real, it is easy to understand/explain. Having the hot hand means you feel confident - you have hit a shot or two, or whatever. Feeling confident makes you relax. Relaxing causes your muscles to take over and shoot in the form you have practiced a million times before. When you have a hot hand, you might even miss a shot, but it will be a good shot - it will be close. It is not like every shot that is performed with good form goes in - they just have a chance.

The same is true in pretty much every sport. I have days on the golf course where I feel like every putt is going in. They don't all go in but many do and the others are close. I am confident and rolling the ball with good form. I am relaxed and muscle memory has taken over. Tension and uncertainty kill a putting stroke just like they kill a jump shooter's form.
 
NBAJamWii-Header.jpg
 
It seems like every game we've played since Odom left, somebody on the other team got the hot hand. From BJ Elder to Gansy to Tim Pickett to Tyrese Rice to TJ Warren. Chuck it up and its going in.
 
The human brain is notoriously awful at separating positive variance from an actual signal. It's pretty easy when a good shooter makes 4 3s in a row to think that player is "hot" but that would happen every so often just randomly.

I'll take tens of thousands of data points from NBA shot data over how somebody feels more confident after drilling a few in their church league
 
Because people do get into streaks, Is it as many as five or more? Sometimes, but not always.

Plus, it may be hitting four, missing one, hitting three or four more.

Having a hot hand doesn't necessarily shooting 100% for a game. You can go, 6-8, 7-9 or 9-12. That's a much higher percentage than normal and does happen many times a year.

It also helps the team in many other ways. Opponents get disheartened, shade on D and open lanes for others. Teammates catch the adrenaline on offense and defense.

Saying it doesn't exist is groups of stat geeks who have likely never played the game trying to be cool. As the saying goes; There are lies. There damn lies and then there are statistics.
 
RJ, if you flip a coin 12 times a day for 82 days a year, you'll have days when 10 come up heads. Does that mean you had a hot hand or was it just random?
 
FckVwls said:
The human brain is notoriously awful at separating positive variance from an actual signal. It's pretty easy when a good shooter makes 4 3s in a row to think that player is "hot" but that would happen every so often just randomly.

I'll take tens of thousands of data points from NBA shot data over how somebody feels more confident after drilling a few in their church league
Click to expand...

Then you would probably lose to the church league guy.
 
DOES EXIST!



Sorry - data points be damned. Hot hand is real. You know it when you have it. You know it when one of your players has it, and you can feed it. I have never seen a predictive statistic on momentum either, but I don't know of a more important skill for a game manager to have than to be able to properly handle momentum during a game. Statistics will tell you than an 80% free throw shooter will hit 8/10 every time, but there are a multiple of factors that come into play every single time they take the line that might increase or decrease their odds on that specific shot. Same thing goes with jump shooters. Confidence, momentum, muscle memory of previous shot...all can increase the odds of a shot and thus create a hot hand. All those factors can also go against a shooter.
 
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