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basketball study

RJKarl said:
Because people do get into streaks, Is it as many as five or more? Sometimes, but not always.

Plus, it may be hitting four, missing one, hitting three or four more.

Having a hot hand doesn't necessarily shooting 100% for a game. You can go, 6-8, 7-9 or 9-12. That's a much higher percentage than normal and does happen many times a year.

It also helps the team in many other ways. Opponents get disheartened, shade on D and open lanes for others. Teammates catch the adrenaline on offense and defense.

Saying it doesn't exist is groups of stat geeks who have likely never played the game trying to be cool. As the saying goes; There are lies. There damn lies and then there are statistics.
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Of course the hot hand can exist in street ball and church leagues where the players mostly suck on defense and aren't that organized. In high level college basketball or the NBA, defenders adjust quickly and coaches put their guys in position to shut down a hot shooter.
 
faxmachineanthem said:
RJ, if you flip a coin 12 times a day for 82 days a year, you'll have days when 10 come up heads. Does that mean you had a hot hand or was it just random?
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This is the problem extrapolating a truly random event with one that involves a skill. The outcome of flipping a coin or rolling a die has nothing to do with the outcome of shooting a basketball, hitting a baseball or as someone said earlier hitting a putt.

As Scooter said confidence (or lack thereof) is a major factor in many sporting efforts. Shooting a basketball or making a putt is not a random event.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
Of course the hot hand can exist in street ball and church leagues where the players mostly suck on defense and aren't that organized. In high level college basketball or the NBA, defenders adjust quickly and coaches put their guys in position to shut down a hot shooter.
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And still players in the NBA have nights when they shoot 70-90% versus a normal night when they shoot 45%.

There are also nights when the opposing team can't stop a player. No matter what they do.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
Of course the hot hand can exist in street ball and church leagues where the players mostly suck on defense and aren't that organized. In high level college basketball or the NBA, defenders adjust quickly and coaches put their guys in position to shut down a hot shooter.
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which is why the guy from creighton kept stepping back and making 3s.
 
Wrangor said:
DOES EXIST!



Sorry - data points be damned. Hot hand is real. You know it when you have it. You know it when one of your players has it, and you can feed it. I have never seen a predictive statistic on momentum either, but I don't know of a more important skill for a game manager to have than to be able to properly handle momentum during a game. Statistics will tell you than an 80% free throw shooter will hit 8/10 every time, but there are a multiple of factors that come into play every single time they take the line that might increase or decrease their odds on that specific shot. Same thing goes with jump shooters. Confidence, momentum, muscle memory of previous shot...all can increase the odds of a shot and thus create a hot hand. All those factors can also go against a shooter.
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That was an amazing show.
 
holy shit. there is a topic rj and i agree on 100%.
 
FckVwls said:
So basically: Previous studies that have debunked hot hand theories didn't account for fact that players take more difficult shots (or the defense pays the player more attention) after a few consecutive makes. And therefore although the shooting % on the 5th shot after four makes isn't any higher than shot 1, the player is actually "hot" because the 5th shot will on average be a worse quality look.

Only 1-2% affect though according to this new study. Still very small.
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Yep. Available data didn't support it but people tested better data and found a small effect. That's how science works.
 
RJKarl said:
And still players in the NBA have nights when they shoot 70-90% versus a normal night when they shoot 45%.

There are also nights when the opposing team can't stop a player. No matter what they do.
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This in absolutely no way provides any evidence of supporting a hot hand theory. I hope you realize that.
 
A hot hand doesn't mean shooting 100%. That's your problem.

The reality is only stat geeks and those who don't get basketball even argue this.

Here's some real scientific evidence. A subject must be true if you can get PH, Milhouse, Wrangor and I to 100% agree with each other about it. I do believe the Earth stopped spinning for a second when it realized this was happening. Then started up again knowing all was well.
 
RJKarl said:
And still players in the NBA have nights when they shoot 70-90% versus a normal night when they shoot 45%.

There are also nights when the opposing team can't stop a player. No matter what they do.
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On sample sizes of maybe 10 field goal attempts.
 
I'm just going to sit back and let Vwls fight the good fight. Just noting that I completely agree with him and laugh from behind my computer at people who use personal experiences to validate that the hot hand exists.
 
So let's say Steve Kerr makes 50% of his wide open threes, where defense is not a factor. Why does he make it sometimes and miss it other times? Surely his skill level isn't changing from minute to minute or game to game. I also find it hard to believe it's his confidence level changing. I think it's pretty fair to call it random, at least to a great degree.

Also, regarding confidence, I feel that heat check shots, which are taken out of irrational confidence, miss much more than they make. So it's not like confidence gives you super-human ability. This study sounds right to me... confidence probably gives you a very small bump.
 
FckVwls said:
The human brain is notoriously awful at separating positive variance from an actual signal. It's pretty easy when a good shooter makes 4 3s in a row to think that player is "hot" but that would happen every so often just randomly.

I'll take tens of thousands of data points from NBA shot data over how somebody feels more confident after drilling a few in their church league
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Well said.
 
I believe in the hot hand. And really don't care what the data nerds say about it :).

I am just going to use this thread to post awesome hot hand videos.

 
RJKarl said:
In a game of basketball not many people take more than 10-20 shots in a game. Thus your point is not relevant.
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So why do good shooter sometimes go 1-7 after hitting their first shot? And they sometimes go 6-7?
 
Well, I guess that explains it- Bzzz only recruits the cold hand shooters.:tear:
 
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