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Bracketology 2017

Pitt, @VT, 8/9 win seems to be the bare minimum asked for but it looks good blind there.
 
Torn ACL for VPI's Chris Clarke. He was averaging 11.4 ppg and leading the team with 7.4 rpg. Tough break for the Hokies
 
timdunkandthefunk said:
C
E
D
A
B
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For anyone who cares: C is Michigan State. E is Providence. D is Middle Tennessee. A is Seton Hall. B is Wichita State.

WSU's kenpom is 16 but computer numbers for this aren't great. Win totals are from espn. Not sure why the record is different than KP. Maybe because D2 teams?
 
When we got in as a 9 seed under Dino I do not recall much bubble drama for us. I do not think we have ever been a double digit seed.
 
There was bubble drama.
 
we stumbled to the 9 after being good and very safely in for most of the season, so bubble talk came on very late and very briefly. lost 5 out of the last 6 including a 20 point loss in the 5 v 12 ACC tourney matchup.
 
Eagles_Legendz said:
Vitals went on a rant afterwards about our inclusion (over VT I think?).
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I remember that well. As if I need more reasons to hate Vitale, but it did make Ish's game winner that much sweeter knowing that he'd have to STFU about us.
 
DeacinBama said:
I remember that well. As if I need more reasons to hate Vitale, but it did make Ish's game winner that much sweeter knowing that he'd have to STFU about us.
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Vitale complaining about our #1 seed in 1995 sealed it for me.
 
Eagles_Legendz said:
Vitals went on a rant afterwards about our inclusion (over VT I think?).
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And we even won an NCAA game that year. Kinda funny that Dino gets fired in a year we make the tourney AND win a game yet Well-Man won't fire his Boy Redacted after 2 pathetic seasons or even 3......
 
Loss for Syracuse in OT. A win there would have solidly pushed them over Wake. A good for Texas Tech, but their overall resume is still too weak for an at-large birth.


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Eagles_Legendz said:
Vitals went on a rant afterwards about our inclusion (over VT I think?).
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VT had the head to head win, but it was a tight margin at VT. Other than that we had the same ACC record.

We had a pretty tough OOC schedule that year (harder at the top than this year, although it grades as easier due to the 'long tail')... @Purdue, @Gonzaga, vs Xavier, @Richmond. We went 3-1 against that stretch, and the Purdue loss was closer than the score indicated. We did lose badly to William and Mary.

I remember Seth ranting about how they had increased the strength of their OOC to appease the committee, but the reality was they just scheduled the drudges of the power 5 and lost to the one tournament team they played (Temple).
 
Wake Forest (15-10, 6-7, RPI 31, KP 32) at Clemson (13-11, 3-9, RPI 56, KP 39) - "Must Win" and "Tuesday" historically haven't gone well for Wake. That said, this is actually more of a must-win for Clemson. They won't be able to recover from a loss here, while Wake could still get in the dance at 8-10 (with some help and/or a decent ACCT) or get to 9-9 (with a few upsets down the stretch). That said, our prospects will look significantly better if we get the road win tonight.

VCU (20-5, 10-2, RPI 27, KP 43) vs. Saint Joseph's - VCU has a lock on an 8/9-seed right now, so they aren't stressing too much. That said, they already have a bad loss (Fordham) and if they let up in a game like this it could move them back on the bubble. Expect them to win big (favored by 16.5)

Dayton (19-5, 10-2, RPI 29, KP 33) at Saint Louis - Is this the year that Archie bolts for Raleigh? Dayton is playing great basketball, and is currently projected as an 8-seed. They should win big tonight, but their RPI will take a hit as a result.

Virginia Tech (17-7, 6-6, RPI 37, KP 51) at Pittsburgh (14-11, 3-9, RPI 54, KP 66) - Don't understate how big VaTech's win against Virginia was. That's a statement win that could easily be a differentiator on Selection Sunday. They're currently seed as an 8/9-seed after being on the bubble over the past few weeks. Pitt has won two straight in the ACC. They don't stand a prayer, but if 3-9 Clemson is getting looks why not 3-9 Pitt?

Michigan State (15-10, 7-8, RPI 41, 54) vs. Ohio State (15-11, 5-8, RPI 59, KP 61) - The Spartans are on the right side of the bubble, but barely. They're currently projected as a 10-seed, meaning likely one of the last eight in the tournament. The Buckeyes are still hanging around in the conversation, but have a tough schedule down the stretch. Tonight is a "must win" for Ohio State.

Tennessee (14-11, 6-6, RPI 44, KP 41) at #13 Kentucky - Lunardi has Tennessee ahead of Wake, while Palm doesn't have Tennessee on his board at all. They did beat Kentucky back in January, but the game tonight in Rupp will be a much tougher test for the Volunteers.

Georgia (14-11, 5-7, RPI 51, KP 50) vs. Mississippi State - Georgia currently isn't under consideration for a bid, but they could get to 9-9 in the SEC by year-end. That still probably won't be enough to get them in, but they would at least be discussed on Selection Sunday.

Ole Miss (15-10, 6-6, RPI 58, KP 70) vs. LSU - Palm has Ole Miss as his third team out. Their RPI will take a hit today, but a win tonight will make it four in five games. Their resume is like a poor man's (homeless man's) Wake - no bad losses, no marquee wins.

Auburn (16-9, 5-7, RPI 68, KP 75) vs. #15 Florida - Auburn is currently on the outside looking in, about 10-15 teams away from an at-large bid. A win tonight could get them back in the conversation, but don't count on it. They're double-digit dogs against Florida who has won six straight.
 
Dino was on 610 this morning talking about Wake (and other ACC teams). He said that the ESPN crew had a conference call a few days ago with someone connected to the Committee, and that the top criteria for bubble teams were "who you beat" and road wins. He said, because of that, we wouldn't get in as it now stands, but that we have chances against Duke and LVille to get in. Said we played a lot of tough teams but lost to all of them so far. He also called us an "average to good ACC team, and good may be a stretch". He is probably right on all counts.
 
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2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Dino was on 610 this morning talking about Wake (and other ACC teams). He said that the ESPN crew had a conference call a few days ago with someone connected to the Committee, and that the top criteria for bubble teams were "who you beat" and road wins. He said, because of that, we wouldn't get in as it now stands, but that we have chances against Duke and LVille to get in. Said we played a lot of tough teams but lost to all of them so far. He also called us an "average to good ACC team, and good may be a stretch". He is probably right on all counts.
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We do have five true road wins and will have to add 1 more to realistically get to 18 wins. And while marquee wins might be the top criteria I doubt they are going to completely ignore RPI and SOS
 
Eagles_Legendz said:
For anyone who cares: C is Michigan State. E is Providence. D is Middle Tennessee. A is Seton Hall. B is Wichita State.

WSU's kenpom is 16 but computer numbers for this aren't great. Win totals are from espn. Not sure why the record is different than KP. Maybe because D2 teams?
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Good team choices. I was thinking E was going to be Indiana, knew immediately D was Middle Tennessee State.
 
Wake has the third most road wins in the ACC this season.

If Wake's a top 40 RPI and gets left out I'd be shocked, although I suppose stranger things have happened. I would expect if there were a time it would have happened it would've been in a year where advanced metrics were going to be used more (like this year for instance) and the metrics didn't mesh with the RPI. As is though, the RPI and advanced metrics are roughly on the same page with Wake.
 
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