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Bracketology 2017

LilburnDeac said:
Did he really? What did he say?
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He said that since UNC led in the ACCT championship game when Rasheed rolled his ankle (and rolled around on the floor screaming like a baby) that UNC should have gotten the #1 seed.
 
RChildress107 said:
We do have five true road wins and will have to add 1 more to realistically get to 18 wins. And while marquee wins might be the top criteria I doubt they are going to completely ignore RPI and SOS
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It sounded like his view was that our RPI and SOS are what are getting us onto the bubble and in the conversation given our record, but we need a strong win to move us off the bubble and into the bracket.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
It sounded like his view was that our RPI and SOS are what are getting us onto the bubble and in the conversation given our record, but we need a strong win to move us off the bubble and into the bracket.
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I heard it as well.... tough to argue his logic. He said nothing that hasn't been discussed already on this thread.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
It sounded like his view was that our RPI and SOS are what are getting us onto the bubble and in the conversation given our record, but we need a strong win to move us off the bubble and into the bracket.
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Yeah I get that but at the same time it's not like 17-13 (8-10) is some atrocious record.

Also if we win tonight, vs. Pitt, @VT, and the 8/9 game we will still have zero marquee wins but will be very safely in, probably as a 8-9 seed (19-13 (9-9), RPI: 30, SOS:8). Hard to see losing one of those knocking us all the way out but who knows.
 
My major question is which of these teams should get the nod if they're theoretically the last two teams for one spot:

17-13 (8-10); RPI: 35; SOS: 15; no losses outside top 100; 1-10 v. top 50; 5-10 v. top 100

19-11 (8-10); RPI: 35; SOS: 27; no losses outside top 100; 1-8 v. top 50; 5-8 v. top 100

The only difference between the two teams is that the second team replaced two top 50 OOC games with teams outside the top 100 (essentially guaranteed wins).
 
RChildress107 said:
I also think 4-5 top 100 road wins tells me more about a team than 1-2 top 25 home wins. Then again I'm not on the committee.
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Playing Devil's Advocate, if we go 1-13 against the top 50 teams in the country (I'm counting Miami as Top 50), logically how would be expected to perform in the tournament featuring (generally) the top 40 teams, plus auto qualifiers?

I get that we've been solid but it's easy to poke a hole in our resume.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Wake has the third most road wins in the ACC this season.

If Wake's a top 40 RPI and gets left out I'd be shocked, although I suppose stranger things have happened. I would expect if there were a time it would have happened it would've been in a year where advanced metrics were going to be used more (like this year for instance) and the metrics didn't mesh with the RPI. As is though, the RPI and advanced metrics are roughly on the same page with Wake.
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We're tied for second with UNC/Louisville - behind UVA. A bit erroneous though, since we've played the most road games of any ACC team. The other side of the coin is we're tied for the most road losses with NCSU. Still, props to the program for scheduling that many in the first place. We've played 11 so far, compared to five from Duke and six from ND/FSU
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
My major question is which of these teams should get the nod if they're theoretically the last two teams for one spot:

17-13 (8-10); RPI: 35; SOS: 15; no losses outside top 100; 1-10 v. top 50; 5-10 v. top 100

19-11 (8-10); RPI: 35; SOS: 27; no losses outside top 100; 1-8 v. top 50; 5-8 v. top 100

The only difference between the two teams is that the second team replaced two top 50 OOC games with teams outside the top 100 (essentially guaranteed wins).
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I think it has to be Team A given the emphasis the committee has placed on SOS over the years.

Then again, Team B below is projected as a 10 seed while Team A is currently wrong side of the bubble:


Team A
15-10 (6-7); RPI: 31; SOS: 16; no losses outside top 100; 1-8 v. top 50; 7-10 v. top 100

Team B
18-7 (9-4); RPI: 33; SOS: 37; no losses outside top 100; 1-6 v. top 50; 4-7 v. top 100


No marquee wins for either. FWIW, Team A would be favored by a little over 2 points on a neutral floor according to Kenpom.
 
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RChildress107 said:
Yeah I get that but at the same time it's not like 17-13 (8-10) is some atrocious record.

Also if we win tonight, vs. Pitt, @VT, and the 8/9 game we will still have zero marquee wins but will be very safely in, probably as a 8-9 seed (19-13 (9-9), RPI: 30, SOS:8). Hard to see losing one of those knocking us all the way out but who knows.
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You are probably right if we win those 4 games, as then our record alone would likely get us off the bubble, and a road win at Clemson is not marquee but is certainly decent. If we lose one of them our overall ACC record would be 11-14. Without any marquee wins, that could be tough for the committee to take. Remember that the point of the tournament is to find the champion. Hard for anyone to believe the champion could be a team unable to beat any team ranked higher than it all season.
 
thatguy2016 said:
Playing Devil's Advocate, if we go 1-13 against the top 50 teams in the country (I'm counting Miami as Top 50), logically how would be expected to perform in the tournament featuring (generally) the top 40 teams, plus auto qualifiers?

I get that we've been solid but it's easy to poke a hole in our resume.
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how many of those are against top 25 teams? i think we're either 1-1 or 1-2 against 25-50. we've lost a lot to top 25, a lot on the road.
 
thatguy2016 said:
Playing Devil's Advocate, if we go 1-13 against the top 50 teams in the country (I'm counting Miami as Top 50), logically how would be expected to perform in the tournament featuring (generally) the top 40 teams, plus auto qualifiers?

I get that we've been solid but it's easy to poke a hole in our resume.
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Using the bracket matrix (103 brackets so a wisdom of the crowds type situation) as a basis, Wake is one of the last four teams in. That means we'd be sent to Dayton if that held. The other teams there would be MTSU, Seton Hall, and Arkansas. Wake would be the favorite against any three of them in Vegas (likely by 3 to 4 points over all three). If Wake won the opener and advanced to play a six seed, those options would be South Carolina, Maryland, Notre Dame, and Xavier. Wake couldn't play ND or Xavier since they met during the season so the options would be Maryland or South Carolina. Wake would open up as a slight favorite over Maryland and a slight underdog against South Carolina.

So, I'd say logically we'd be expected to play roughly a 50/50 game against teams we're most likely to match up with.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Using the bracket matrix (103 brackets so a wisdom of the crowds type situation) as a basis, Wake is one of the last four teams in. That means we'd be sent to Dayton if that held. The other teams there would be MTSU, Seton Hall, and Arkansas. Wake would be the favorite against any three of them in Vegas (likely by 3 to 4 points over all three). If Wake won the opener and advanced to play a six seed, those options would be South Carolina, Maryland, Notre Dame, and Xavier. Wake couldn't play ND or Xavier since they met during the season so the options would be Maryland or South Carolina. Wake would open up as a slight favorite over Maryland and a slight underdog against South Carolina.

So, I'd say logically we'd be expected to play roughly a 50/50 game against teams we're most likely to match up with.
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OMG ! We're a win away from the Sweet Sixteen !

I smell a contract extension !
 
The only loss we have that isn't against a top 25 team when adjusted for the location is the Clemson home loss.
 
This team could easily shoot its way into the Sweet 16. It could also defend its way into a play-in game loss.
 
BiffTannen said:
OMG ! We're a win away from the Sweet Sixteen !

I smell a contract extension !
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Absolutely !

To take it one step further, projected three seeds are:

Arizona
Florida
Virginia
Kentucky

We'd be roughly five point underdogs to Arizona, ten point dogs to either Florida/UK (both are top 10 in KenPom) and can't play Virginia.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
What does that even mean? Why would you "adjust" for the location? Playing on the road is part of sports.
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Because beating a team on the road is more impressive than beating a team at home. The reason for that is teams perform better at home. If you play the 25th best team at home, it's an easier game than playing the 30th best team on the road.

An example from Wake this year is losing to Clemson at home is a worse loss than losing to Syracuse on the road even though Clemson is likely better overall than Syracuse on a neutral court.
 
yeah i was talking about the selection committee's criteria which is RPI.

Notre Dame fell to 26, Northwestern is 34, those are the only games Wake has played against 25-50 right now. Miami fell to #54.

So the 2 25-50 winnable games we played were true road games.

then we've played a shit ton of top 25 teams, lost to only 2 of them at home (Duke/UNC) and one on a neutral court (Nova).
 
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