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Bracketology 2017

PalmettoDeac19 said:
The thing is the the bottom 8 teams will almost always be small conference champs. In your scenario above all the play-in games would be for 11 or 12 seeds since that's usually as low as at large teams get seeded. Just goes back to the argument of whether the tournament should be for the actual 64/68 best teams in America or all the conference champs plus the remaining 30 or so best remaining teams.
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Yes, it also depends what you consider the Dayton round to be. I know the NCAA considers it part of the tournament and hates it being called a "play-in" round. I have no problem saying that even the lowliest of conference champs gets to vie for a national championship, but the weakest 8 teams (out of all auto-bids and at-larges) just have to win one more game to get there.
 
SpringChicken said:
There are 68 spots in the tournament, so it doesn't help the major bubble teams that they aren't sending the 8 lowest seeds to play-in. I actually like that there are auto-bids...it keeps a technical chance for the dance for anyone all year until the conference tournaments. I just feel that once you're there and the committee has said "from the 68, these teams are better than these teams," then the worse teams should have to play-in.
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I was speaking more to the fact that the field expansion from 64 to 68 mostly benefits major conferences since the four additional spots all go to at large teams since the amount of automatic qualifiers is the same. The bottom eight teams in the field are almost always automatic qualifiers so you'd just eliminating the four worst conference champs.
 
There was serious talk before the play-in games were created about expanding the field to either 96, using byes, or 128. That would've sucked, because I think the 64-team field was perfect. So as compared to those alternatives, the 68-team tournament isn't too bad. Besides, wasn't the argument that there are now more Div-1 conferences, so it's really just keeping the at-large bids closer to the original number from when the tournament expanded to 64?
 
PalmettoDeac19 said:
I was speaking more to the fact that the field expansion from 64 to 68 mostly benefits major conferences since the four additional spots all go to at large teams since the amount of automatic qualifiers is the same. The bottom eight teams in the field are almost always automatic qualifiers so you'd just eliminating the four worst conference champs.
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I agree that any expansion from 64 is good for bubble teams. My only bone to pick is with selection of the teams that get sent to Dayton. Obviously if the alternative was to eliminate Dayton and have 64 teams, it would hurt bubble teams (although - other than my current Wake bias - I'm not sure that's a terrible thing). I just think once you set your number of teams that are invited to compete, if anyone has to play more games (or put another way, not get the bye that the rest of the field enjoys) it should be the lowest seeded teams.
 
PalmettoDeac19 said:
I was speaking more to the fact that the field expansion from 64 to 68 mostly benefits major conferences since the four additional spots all go to at large teams since the amount of automatic qualifiers is the same. The bottom eight teams in the field are almost always automatic qualifiers so you'd just eliminating the four worst conference champs.
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It actually expanded from 65 to 68 as there has been a play in game since the turn of the century.
 
Way too much talk about Dayton right now. Take it to a NWT. Though I suppose we might get left on the 5 line even after we win on Saturday which means we could face a team coming out of Dayton.
 
ESPN scroll has us as last 4 in...wtf Lunardi can eat a bag of dicks!
 
RJKarl said:
SOS is overall. This includes in the league. Overall, FL's schedule is nowhere near as tough as KU's and KU had a higher winning % against really good teams.
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Need more info to agree. Please rank each opponent of Florida and Kansas' based upon your metrics (please reference some objective measurement within your ranking to ensure validity). Then describe how much KU's SOS is better than Fl. Also please take into account margin of victory. I will call it the RJindex. We can then see how the RJindex does compared to kenpom. Maybe you can have a system for percent chances of hot hands and particular matchups. I would follow this all season long, seriously. Would give me so much joy. I'd pay a subscription, 2 dollars. If your system was consistently better than others, you will be famous. You could rub everyone's face in your triumph. Just end all your messages as RJ sends.


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Quick bubble guide based on this morning's (pre-update) Bracket Matrix seedings

Teams that are in and seeded ahead of us

Virginia Tech (21-9)
BM 8.51 (133/135), KP 47, RPI 45
Next: #30 Wake Forest, 7:00 Wednesday
Look ahead: #18 Florida State

Arkansas (23-8)
BM 8.68 (135/135), KP 39, RPI 30
Next: #77 Ole Miss/ #79 Auburn/ #168 Missouri
Look ahead: #6 Florida*

Michigan (20-11)
BM 8.79 (135/135), KP 25, RPI 46
Next: Illinois (#68), 12:00 Thursday
Look ahead: #14 Purdue

Northwestern (21-10)
BM 9.14 (134/135), KP 37, RPI 54
Next: #70 Ohio State/ #131 Rutgers, 7:00 Thursday
Look ahead: #38 Maryland

VCU (24-7)
BM 9.21 (135/135), KP 48, RPI 23
Next: #115 GMU/ #196 Fordham, 6:00 Friday
Look ahead: #90 Richmond*

Marquette (19-11)
BM 9.65 (134/135), KP 28, RPI 55
Next: Seton Hall (#54), 2:30 Thursday
Look ahead: #2 Villanova*

Seton Hall (20-10)
BM 9.78 (134/135), KP 54, RPI 43
Next: Marquette (#28), 2:30 Thursday
Look ahead: #2 Villanova*

Michigan State (18-13)
BM 9.93 (135/135), KP 50, RPI 49
Next: #105 Nebraska/ #82 Penn State, 2:00 Thursday
Look ahead: #33 Minnesota

Providence (20-11)
BM 10.44 (129/135), KP 53, RPI 52
Next: Creighton (#27), 9:30 Thursday
Look ahead: #23 Butler*

Teams that are in the field but seeded below us

Xavier (19-12)
BM 10.73 (130/135), KP 43, RPI 33
Next: #179 DePaul, 9:30 Wednesday
Look ahead: #13 Butler

USC (23-8)
BM 10.92 (130/135), KP 61, RPI 39
Next: #170 Washington, 11:30 Wednesday
Look ahead: #16 UCLA

Middle Tennessee (27-4)*
BM 10.98 (135/135), KP 52, RPI 37
Next: #230 WKU/ #254 UTSA, 1:00 Thursday
Look ahead: #202 UTEP
*Projected conference champion

Syracuse (18-14)
BM 11.14 (112/135), KP 44, RPI 79
Next: #31 Miami, 12:00 Wednesday. Lost, 62-57.
Look ahead: None

Vanderbilt (17-14)
BM 11.15 (119/135), KP 40, RPI 44
Next: #60 Texas A&M, 7:00 Thursday
Look ahead: #6 Florida

Illinois State (27-6)
BM 11.37 (59/135), KP 49, RPI 31
Next: None

Teams that are not in the field

Rhode Island (21-9)
BM 11.60 (57/135), KP 51, RPI 42
Next: #93 St. Bonaventure/ #151 UMass/ #175 St. Joe’s, 2:00 Friday
Look ahead: #34 Dayton*

Kansas State (19-12)
BM 11.47 (43/135), KP 32, RPI 60
Next: #11 Baylor, 9:00 Thursday
Look ahead: #3 WVU*

Iowa (18-13)
BM 11.62 (13/135), KP 67, RPI 72
Next: #46 Indiana, 6:30 Thursday
Look ahead: #22 Wisconsin

Illinois (18-13)
BM 11.22 (9/135), KP 68, RPI 58
Next: #25 Michigan, 12:00 Thursday
Look ahead: #14 Purdue

Clemson (17-15)
BM 11.00 (1/135), KP 35, RPI 63
Next: #15 Duke, 2:00 Wednesday. Lost, 79-72.
Look ahead: None

California (19-11)
BM 11.33 (3/135), KP 55, RPI 56
Next: #272 Oregon St, 5:30 Wednesday
Look ahead: #42 Utah

Houston (21-9)
BM 11.43 (7/135), KP 42, RPI 50
Next: #94 UConn/ #293 USF winner, 8:00 Friday
Look ahead: #20 Cincinnati*

Georgia (18-13)
BM 11.67 (3/135), KP 56, RPI 53
Next: #62 Tennessee, 1:00 Thursday
Look ahead: #7 Kentucky
 
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Tuned in for the end of the Miami-Cuse game, announcer said something along the lines of "We just heard from Joe Lunardi, who does not think a loss by Syracuse knocks them out of the tournament."
 
What is the magic with Cuse? They suck compared to us other that 3 last second shots to win games. Is that the focal point of the NCAA tourney or is it the preferential treatment for Blowheim?
 
Which leads to more eyeballs/clicks?:

"Syracuse is still on the bubble regardless of the results of their games."
"Syracuse is no longer on the bubble."
 
nvadeac said:
What is the magic with Cuse? They suck compared to us other that 3 last second shots to win games. Is that the focal point of the NCAA tourney or is it the preferential treatment for Blowheim?
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definitely the latter
 
Surprised Miami didn't foul there before he shot but worked out.

Best case scenario for Cuse is Dayton. Think it's likely they don't make it.
 
Announcer says, essentially "Cuse is 10-8 in the ACC, and the ACC is the best conference in basketball, so they're in."
 
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