• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Bradsha'w's TD, should he or shouldn't he?

Maybe Coughlin was thinking about John Kasay who kicked the ball out of bounds to give the ball to Brady at the 40 yard line.

What is the % of NFL kickoffs out of bounds this year (with the new rule)?

THAT would have been a nightmare if you are only up by 18-17.
 
The options were:
a) 57 seconds, 1 TO for 80 yards, and
b) 9 seconds, no timeouts, need a FG.

I know what the announcers said, but they botched it. The TD was scored with 57 ticks left. Even assuming the timeout is called immediately, the next play takes 4 seconds, running down to 53, then 40 off the play clock to 13, then 4 seconds for the FG play, so you're at 9 seconds maximum. So the logic looks even worse scoring than it would at 20 seconds remaining.

When you have a 98% chance of winning by taking a knee and kicking in that situation or approximately 85% chance of Brady not scoring, you take the 98% chance. Running the clock out is the best and only correct call there. As a Pats fan, I was thrilled they let them score and honestly had been yelling at them to do it once they got under the 2 minute warning. That they won anyways doesn't make it the right call when you are giving yourself a lesser chance to win.

But by the same token you have a 100% of taking the lead by scoring the TD and a 98% if you kill clock and kick the FG. You can't win without taking the lead.

It's an interesting argument. Cases can clearly be made on both sides. I think having the luxury of making the Pats need a TD with a few more seconds in the clock is worth scoring the TD in that situation.
 
Maybe Coughlin was thinking about John Kasay who kicked the ball out of bounds to give the ball to Brady at the 40 yard line.

What is the % of NFL kickoffs out of bounds this year (with the new rule)?

THAT would have been a nightmare if you are only up by 18-17.

Yes, but even then, it would be Pats ball at their own 35 (with kickoffs at the 35 now) with 8-9 seconds and 0 timeouts. If that's the worst case scenario, the other team having to gain 25+ yards on their first play while getting out of bounds and doing so without the clock runnning out, then having to make a 57 yard field goal on the off chance a kick went out of bounds, that is excellent.

And yes I understand you have to take the lead to win, but it doesn't make the argument any better for scoring there. The object is to win, not to just take the lead. The option that gives you the largest chance of winning is the option to take. Since that's clearly taking a knee, that's clearly the correct call regardless of what can happen the 2%.
 
Yes, but even then, it would be Pats ball at their own 35 (with kickoffs at the 35 now) with 8-9 seconds and 0 timeouts. If that's the worst case scenario, the other team having to gain 25+ yards on their first play while getting out of bounds and doing so without the clock runnning out, then having to make a 57 yard field goal on the off chance a kick went out of bounds, that is excellent.

And yes I understand you have to take the lead to win, but it doesn't make the argument any better for scoring there. The object is to win, not to just take the lead. The option that gives you the largest chance of winning is the option to take. Since that's clearly taking a knee, that's clearly the correct call regardless of what can happen the 2%.

Are you sure, I thought it was still the 40? What sense does it make to move the kickoff up to the 35 from the 30 and move the penalty for kicking it out of bounds from the 40 back to the 35?
 
Statistical analysis be damned, you take the points there. You go over to your defense and you go "Hey, guess what, they just let us score because they think you're not good enough to stop their offense from driving the length of the field and winning this game, are you going to let them do that to you, or are you going to dig deep and show them what you're made of?"

Gronk was about on foot away from making the miraculous catch on the last play. Everyone would have been merciless on Coughlin today if the Pats somehow came up with the ball there.
 
The penalty is that the ball is placed 30 yards from the spot of the kickoff, provided the kickoff travels further than 30 yards. If it goes out before 30 yards, it is placed at the spot it goes out.
 
The penalty is that the ball is placed 30 yards from the spot of the kickoff, provided the kickoff travels further than 30 yards. If it goes out before 30 yards, it is placed at the spot it goes out.

Yeah I just looked it up and that is right, my bad. Still doesn't make much sense to move the kickoff spot up to the 35 and move the penalty for kicking it out of bounds back to the 35 from the 40. Seems like since you kicking off further up the field the penalty for an out of bounds kick should be more severe, not less???
 
Gronk was about on foot away from making the miraculous catch on the last play. Everyone would have been merciless on Coughlin today if the Pats somehow came up with the ball there.

Very true, but no more so than if Bradshaw takes a knee and then Manning fumbles the center exchange and the Patriots recover. That's why I don't think there's a clear right or wrong. I'm of the mindset you go with the 100% certainty of scoring, but can't really argue too much with someone like Haros who thinks otherwise.
 
Last edited:
If the Giants wanted to run the clock down, they should have just taken a knee and gotten the ball to the middle of the field. Why risk a fumble or anything if your team is not trying to score a TD? By virtue of handing the ball off, Coughlin had already made the choice to try to score a TD, so the RB was doing his job.

If Brady throws 100 hail mary's, I bet one in 15-20 are caught. And that last one almost was. That is more than the chance of missing a 19 yd FG. Not to mention if they'd been more efficient on the drive and gotten a couple shots from, say, 30 yds.

I get FG's can get blocked or thetsnap goes wrong or kcik shanked. Nothing is ever guaranteed. But that is your best option to kick a 19 yarder with 2 seconds left.

something else occurred to me at the end of the game when the Giants had 12 men on the field with 15 seconds left. What if they had 14? You almost assure yourself of defending the pass successfully, and the worst that happens is a 5 yard penalty, but the clock runs down. I wondered if that was intentional and if that might be a rule change next year: on a defensive penalty in the last 2 minutes, the offense has the option to take the penalty and reset the clock. That was genius if it was intentional.
 
If the Giants wanted to run the clock down, they should have just taken a knee and gotten the ball to the middle of the field. Why risk a fumble or anything if your team is not trying to score a TD? By virtue of handing the ball off, Coughlin had already made the choice to try to score a TD, so the RB was doing his job.

If Brady throws 100 hail mary's, I bet one in 15-20 are caught. And that last one almost was. That is more than the chance of missing a 19 yd FG. Not to mention if they'd been more efficient on the drive and gotten a couple shots from, say, 30 yds.I get FG's can get blocked or thetsnap goes wrong or kcik shanked. Nothing is ever guaranteed. But that is your best option to kick a 19 yarder with 2 seconds left.

something else occurred to me at the end of the game when the Giants had 12 men on the field with 15 seconds left. What if they had 14? You almost assure yourself of defending the pass successfully, and the worst that happens is a 5 yard penalty, but the clock runs down. I wondered if that was intentional and if that might be a rule change next year: on a defensive penalty in the last 2 minutes, the offense has the option to take the penalty and reset the clock. That was genius if it was intentional.


I don't know if the hail mary percentage is that high, you see maybe one or two of those completed a year and there are probably far more the 20 thrown a year in the NFL.

They were talking about that today on Mike and Mike, saying it was probably intentional. Golic said Buddy Ryan had them do this when he was with the Eagles. They went on to say that is something that needs to be fixed, because a in the Giants situation last night could just keep taking the "too many players on the field penalty" and only lose 5 yards a pop, but let the time run out.
 
Oh goody! Another immature ass gave me another anonymous negrep for my response to the first one. This is just such a friendly board!

I think it is clear that opinions can differ on the best course of action at that point in the game - that is why there is an ongoing discussion. I agreed with one opinion - that you always take the points in that situation, and the lead, when you are behind and are given that opportunity. No matter how much the odds favor success on the field goal, there is always a chance that something goes wrong and it fails. In that case you never take the lead and you lose. Taking the touchdown guarantees that you take the lead and that you make it VERY difficult to lose.

That is my opinion and that is what I would do. I understand the logic behind the other opinion and realize it is certainly defensible. I think it is a very close call and I would not attack the people taking the opposite position. See how that works?

I liken it to the foul/don't foul question when up 3 and the other team has the last opportunity to score. Odds would seem to favor fouling - you eliminate the chance of a tying 3-pointer and the odds appear stacked against the other team being able to (i) make the 1st FT, (ii) miss the second one on purpose, (iii) secure the rebound on the missed free throw, and (iv) score to tie the game.

As a Wake fan, I have seen just that happen when we fouled on purpose. Of course, as a Wake fan, I have also seen us decide not to foul and watch the tying 3-pointer go through the basket. My view of statistics as they apply to sports is probably skewed as a result of years of cheering for the Deacs!
 
Gronk was about on foot away from making the miraculous catch on the last play. Everyone would have been merciless on Coughlin today if the Pats somehow came up with the ball there.

The only people who would be riding Coughlin had the Patriots somehow come up with that catch would be the keyboard jockeys looking at numbers in a spreadsheet and who have no understanding the game of football and the people who play it. Everyone else on the planet would have been raving about how insane of an ending it was and wouldn't have paid any mind. Nobody rides Mike Martz for scoring too quickly in Super Bowl XXXVI, nor do they ride John Fox for doing the same in Super Bowl XXXVIII

The Patriots letting the Giants score there is a direct slap in the face of the Giants defense and your team is either a bunch of men who are strong enough to punch the Patriots back or they're going to roll over and lose the game. The Green Bay Packers tried the exact same thing against the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XXXII and the game ended with the exact same result.
 
[/B]

I don't know if the hail mary percentage is that high, you see maybe one or two of those completed a year and there are probably far more the 20 thrown a year in the NFL.

They were talking about that today on Mike and Mike, saying it was probably intentional. Golic said Buddy Ryan had them do this when he was with the Eagles. They went on to say that is something that needs to be fixed, because a in the Giants situation last night could just keep taking the "too many players on the field penalty" and only lose 5 yards a pop, but let the time run out.

We were talking about this during the game. Let's just put 30 guys out on the field and don't let them score or do anything positive.

Guess the QB could just instantly spike the ball to get the 5 yards without time running down but how many QBs would ignore the chance at a free play? Sure, with 30 guys they might, but what about 13? 14? 15?
 
We were talking about this during the game. Let's just put 30 guys out on the field and don't let them score or do anything positive.

Guess the QB could just instantly spike the ball to get the 5 yards without time running down but how many QBs would ignore the chance at a free play? Sure, with 30 guys they might, but what about 13? 14? 15?

That's what Golic said they did when he played for the Eagles. He said they sent 15 guys out and just took the penalty of few times, the clock ran out, game over.
 
We were talking about this during the game. Let's just put 30 guys out on the field and don't let them score or do anything positive.

Guess the QB could just instantly spike the ball to get the 5 yards without time running down but how many QBs would ignore the chance at a free play? Sure, with 30 guys they might, but what about 13? 14? 15?

It's not a "free" play. It costs valuable time.
 
wasn't the 12th guy a DL running off the field? no chance that was intentional.
 
Instead, they scored and got to sweat out an exciting final minute of football before the confetti shower began. They might even have exploited a funny little loophole in the rule book. With 17 seconds left, Tom Brady took a snap and desperately searched around for an open receiver. He eventually launched a pass to a well-covered Aaron Hernandez that fell incomplete, but not before eight seconds had passed and a flag had fallen to the ground. The penalty? The Giants had 12 men on the field, a five-yarder that would allow the Patriots to replay the down from their own 49-yard line, but not reclaim the time on the clock.

In a situation where a team needs a touchdown with 20 seconds or so left in the game, time can be far more important than yards. Trading eight seconds for five yards there is a decision the defense will take every time, and even if the Patriots had the ability to get off a free play, the Giants had 12 men on the field and were more likely to stop such a play from succeeding. It's brilliant. It's illegal. But was it on purpose?

Normally, we wouldn't accuse a coach of employing such a strategy. Tom Coughlin certainly doesn't have a reputation for stretching the rules. But fellow Grantland contributor Chris Brown pointed out that there's a precedent for such behavior: Buddy Ryan's "Polish Defense" tactic, a move he employed near the goal line. Take it away, playbook:

THREE EXTRA LINEBACKERS GO INTO THE GAME.

Situation: The opponent is inside the 5 yard line going in to score. There is less than 15 seconds left. We want to stop their offense from scoring and in the process, we want to run the clock down to where they have enough time for just one play. So, we will stop them, get penalized half the distance to the goal, but leave them with enough time to run one play. We will then go back to our regular goal line defense and stop them to win the game.

Chris' post also notes that Ryan later placed 14 men onto the field for a last-minute punt while considering the same sort of strategy, and actually got away with it when the referees failed to recognize the extra men and didn't throw a flag.

It's easy to see how this might work for the Giants. By taking eight seconds off the clock, they force the Patriots into a situation where they essentially will have to throw a Hail Mary on the next play (or, in the worst case, two plays later). In fact, just as Ryan lamented not having 15 men on the field for the punt, the Giants probably should have run 13 men4 onto the field for the play, ensuring that a completion was almost certainly not forthcoming before taking their lumps.

In reality, the Giants probably just screwed up and put 12 men on the field amid all the excitement and drama of the final series. But don't be surprised if an NFL team remembers this situation next season, refers back to Ryan's mantra, and throws 14 players on the field for a key defensive snap inside 30 seconds. The NFL would be smart to close this loophole in the rules and turn the defensive 12-men penalty into a true free play, allowing the offense to either take the result of the play or the option of accepting a five-yard penalty with the time run off from the play added back onto the clock.

included as a side bar "4.Putting more than 13 men on the field would probably qualify as a "palpably unfair" act, which the refs have significant latitude to punish. The lesson here, as always, is to have plausible deniability."

Interesting idea to have more than 11 men on defense.
 
We were talking about this during the game. Let's just put 30 guys out on the field and don't let them score or do anything positive.

Guess the QB could just instantly spike the ball to get the 5 yards without time running down but how many QBs would ignore the chance at a free play? Sure, with 30 guys they might, but what about 13? 14? 15?

I said the same thing last night. Why not put 16-18 guys out there with that little time left? I would think that a rule change is in order in the offseason. Goodell and his crew are sharp, and if it was on the radio in New York you can bet the situation will be brought up to him.

Of course, college will take its sweet time and make someone get screwed first before they change their rules.
 
Back
Top