Clemson 1-8; Miami 12-1; Virginia 12-1; Virginia Tech 15-1; Duke16-1; Pittsburgh 25-1; Wake Forest 60-1; UNC 100-1. I know Vegas is pretty accurate on most things, but Duke, Pittsburgh, and Miami ahead of us? Especially Duke 4-4 2-3 ACC who needs to find two wins from Notre Dame-Syracuse-Wake Forest-Miami to just get a bowl bid.
Caesar's Book Odds to Win ACC...
- Thread starter deacsrus
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You should keep in mind that in order to win the ACC you have to get to the ACCCG and then win the ACCCG. Having Clemson in your division makes the first part of that equation much more difficult.
tigerswood
Well-known member
Even still, Wake is way better value there. I’d love to somehow take the other side of the first 5 coastal team bets in a parlay.
DeacsATS
Sam "Ace" Rothstein
Not going to do the math because there is no way I'll actually wager it, but I wonder if 60-1 is better or worse than you'd do just taking the money line on Wake for every remaining ACC game and rolling it over?
Wakeforest22890
Snowpom
So Clemson is probably 90 percent to beat both State and Wake (win Atlantic that way) and they still win the Atlantic with a loss in like 9 percent more of situations (even with one loss Wake has to win out - under 1% chance, or Louisville has to win out and Clemson loses both ACC games)? Then they’re gonna be at least 17-20 point favorites over any coastal champion and are 24+ point favorites over everyone that isn’t Miami or UVA.
Hell clemson may be a value bet at 1 to 8
Hell clemson may be a value bet at 1 to 8
Because we'd have to beat Clemson.
If we are 7/5 dogs on three games and 9/10 favorites on two games, you'd multiply your money by about 5 times. We'd need to be 12/1 money line dogs against Clemson to equal a 60-1 parlay.
I doubt we'd be that big a dog in three of the other five games. So, you might need to get 20-1 or more against Clemson to get to 60-1.
If my math is right if you were to roll money line it would pay about 30/1 through the regular season (assuming -300 for NCST/Cuse, +500 Clemson, -150 VT & Duke). Assuming a toss up ACCCG (-110) and it'd be about 57/1. So pretty much right on the number.
If you exclude Clemson game from your bets the regular season pays 5/1.
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Wakeforest22890
Snowpom
Wake gonna be way worse than +500 for Clemson. We’re gonna open like +27 or so. Teams this week that are +21 are +1000 ML
Wakeforest22890
Snowpom
As of right now Wake will be favored against state Cuse and duke and a tossup against VPI
Pilchard
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FWIW, if Clemson is a 25 to 28 point favorite when WF plays at Clemson in a couple weeks, the money line on that game (and a lot of books don't post money lines on games with that high of spread) WF would be at least +2000 (20 to 1 payout). As an example the money line on the Oklahoma/K State game last weekend was a little less than that and Oklahoma was a 23.5 point favorite. Some guy bet $30,000 on Oklahoma on the money line to win $1500. Ouch.
So, if you just bet WF on the money line and role it over every time, you would make more than 60 to 1, unless something crazy happened like a Trevor Lawrence injury before the WF Clemson game.
So, if you just bet WF on the money line and role it over every time, you would make more than 60 to 1, unless something crazy happened like a Trevor Lawrence injury before the WF Clemson game.
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DeacsATS
Sam "Ace" Rothstein
After careful deliberation of whether to take Wake Forest Football at 60-1 or just roll over my ML winnings every week through the ACC Championship, I've decided to...
Take Wake Forest +100000 (1000/1) to win the NCAA Basketball Tourney.
This way, my ticket is still hypothetically good until mid-March vs. one week or two.
Similarly, I could just light my money on fire. But that's immediate gratification.
Take Wake Forest +100000 (1000/1) to win the NCAA Basketball Tourney.
This way, my ticket is still hypothetically good until mid-March vs. one week or two.
Similarly, I could just light my money on fire. But that's immediate gratification.
morrison2951
Well-known member
Eleventy billion/1
You'd make much more than 5x if you were to roll your winnings over each game at these assumed odds. However, using the estimated ML for these actual games yields a similar answer.
Generally speaking, you're better off betting each game individually as opposed to betting the futures price with increased juice. But in this hypothetical, if Wake were to beat Clemson, their lines against Duke, Cuse and ACCCG would be much higher than if they were to play today. So you may be better off taking the futures bet but not a significant difference.
USing some rough #'s, -290 vs NCST, -150 vs VT, +1000 vs Clem, -320 v Duke, -450 v Cuse and -150 in ACCCG, would pay out ~65-1. But an "11-1 Wake team" going into the ACCCG would prob be rated around 15th in S&P vs a #40 or so Coastal champ so line could be a lot higher than -150 and make the payout just under 60-1.
Fun to dream anyway...
Oklahoma's price is irrelevant here. K State only paid out about 11 or 12-1. Wake should be between +1000 and +1300 vs Clemson assuming your book offers it.