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Chicago Cubs Thread - Playoff Push Pending

BlackjackMc said:
I value Contreras more than the prior players that have left. Catchers are a separate category and Wilson still has upside with the DH providing him 500-600 plate appearances, as long as a second viable catcher is available to give him rest behind the plate. I was OK with the departure of everyone else. They wanted stupid money to resign and none of them came close to their asking price on the open market. Contreras reminds me of Maddox, someone truly special because his best is still to come. The proper approach with Maddox was "put your request in writing" and then sign on without question. The Cardinals didn't make a mistake with Molina, the Cubs shouldn't with Contreras. If they do, the Cardinals might reach deep in their pockets for him.
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The last 5 years of Molina haven't been good, and he is getting paid more as a figurehead than anything else - and they got him for 5/$75 during his prime (ages 29-34) - the Cubs would readily jump at that contract for Willy right now, but I don't think it will be an option.

Again, not my money, so I would be fine having Willy on the team as he ages, but his catching skills are average, at best (outside of his arm strength and throwing out baserunners), so you figure he is not going to be catching by 34-35 years old. So, you really want Willy on a 4 year deal right now, or some sort of longer term deal where the last few years are super low - something like a 7/$100 broken out at $15/$20/$20/$20/$10/$8/$7. No chance Contreras would take something like that, but he is asking for $10.5 million in arb right now, and knows he has to maximize this contract, as very few catchers make any money after 35.
 
Musical chairs on the roster.

Chris Martin, Jonathan Villar, Wade Miley and Yan Gomes restored to the active roster. Clint Frazier DFA. Marcus Stroman to the 15 day IL. Alfonso Rivas and Michael Rucker optioned to Iowa.

A couple of questions. What is the difference between the 15 day IL and the 10 day IL besides the number of days? Does everyone on the 40 man roster make at least the major league minimum?
 
I've almost given up watching cubs games this year - its too frustrating, they aren't a major league team as assembled. So, taking the little wins like Morel here and there. Also, kinda looks like PWiz might be a keeper, which wasn't already after his 2nd half last year and he strikes out way too much, but plays a good 3B and wont kill you at the plate.. Schwindel is a fun story, but hes a poor 1B and not hitting enough to overcome it, oh well.
 
DaDeacs said:
I've almost given up watching cubs games this year - its too frustrating, they aren't a major league team as assembled. So, taking the little wins like Morel here and there. Also, kinda looks like PWiz might be a keeper, which wasn't already after his 2nd half last year and he strikes out way too much, but plays a good 3B and wont kill you at the plate.. Schwindel is a fun story, but hes a poor 1B and not hitting enough to overcome it, oh well.
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The bigger issue is the pitching and all the injuries they've had to endure. The rotation sort of blew to begin with, but losing Miley and Mills for pretty much all the season to date, having Hendricks take 2.5 weeks off and having Stro now on his second DL stint has made things really rough. And then there's the losses of Heuer, Roberts, etc. in the pen. So yeah, the offense has been mediocre, but the staff has been stripped bare.
 
It has been a tough stretch with very few bright spots. Lousy pitching and not enough hitting. There have been very few days where Ross has been able to put his projected lineup on the field together and the projected pitching staff has never been healthy. From what I've seen it would not have made much difference.

Catching has been a bright spot. Contreras has played well. Gomes and Higgins might be enough to finish the season after Wilson is traded. Happ is having his best season at the plate and in the field. Hoerner has had good stretches but needs to sit periodically to recharge. Morel was fun but has come back to Earth. Everyone else merely fills out the roster.

Given the injuries to the pitching staff, it seems like a good time to give the young arms a chance to learn in Chicago. Thompson, Steele and Killian show promise. I don't think Swarmer can survive on two pitches but now is the time to find out.

I wonder what kind of package Hendricks might return in trade?
 
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DaDeacs said:
I've almost given up watching cubs games this year - its too frustrating, they aren't a major league team as assembled. So, taking the little wins like Morel here and there. Also, kinda looks like PWiz might be a keeper, which wasn't already after his 2nd half last year and he strikes out way too much, but plays a good 3B and wont kill you at the plate.. Schwindel is a fun story, but hes a poor 1B and not hitting enough to overcome it, oh well.
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This. Management did a lousy job handling this team post World Series. Once Contreras is allowed to leave, Hendo will be the only one left - oh and JHey, the one guy who should have been moved.
 
Buttermaker said:
Management did a lousy job handling this team post World Series.
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Honest question - what do you think they should have done? I was alway bothered by the Quintana trade - he was a mediocre pitcher and the price seemed high. The prospects could have landed a much better player but Epstein seemed fixated on a lefty starter. The other possible miss IMO was not trading Happ when he could have fetched a good return.
 
IckerDeac said:
Honest question - what do you think they should have done? I was alway bothered by the Quintana trade - he was a mediocre pitcher and the price seemed high. The prospects could have landed a much better player but Epstein seemed fixated on a lefty starter. The other possible miss IMO was not trading Happ when he could have fetched a good return.
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Quintana trade didn't work out. I didn't hate it at the time, but Q wasn't consistently good. I'll admit I don't have specific thoughts on moves that should or should not have been made, but clearly there has been a fire sale of higher priced players in favor of cheaper, less MLB ready players. Good organizations, particularly with the Cubs resources, are able to maintain consistency even after World Series appearances or deep playoff runs. See Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Astros, all with whom the Cubs can compete financially. Heck the Rays have been pretty consistently good the past several years, and they play in front of like 600 people each home game.
 
The Cubs can compete with those franchises financially, of course, but the fact is the current ownership refuses to
 
IckerDeac said:
Honest question - what do you think they should have done? I was alway bothered by the Quintana trade - he was a mediocre pitcher and the price seemed high. The prospects could have landed a much better player but Epstein seemed fixated on a lefty starter. The other possible miss IMO was not trading Happ when he could have fetched a good return.
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Cubs saw Quintana as an innings eater who could keep them in games - he turned out to not have the stability the Cubs wanted, but he pitched well enough in 2017 and 2018. Does it suck that Cease and Jimenez are both potential studs? Cease looked like he would be a good starter, but tinstapp - getting a proven starter was what the Cubs needed with Lester starting to wind down and Arrieta in a contract year. Happ is having one of the best years of his career, he will still fetch a good amount if they move him - and the Cubs won the central as recently as 2020 and last year his 1st half was horrendous and they wouldn't have gotten anything for him - this is likely his highest value since the Cubs have been in sell mode.

There really wasn't much to do, I don't mind any of the trades, really - I think they could have just spent money more wisely to be competitive now or just be honest with the fans. They keep blowing smoke about spending, but that the pandemic was challenging, meanwhile the Ricketts were trying to buy Chelsea. They have the money to compete, and even this year could be at least competitive by signing some higher priced FAs on shorter term deals, but they stayed away. The Cubs have the same money as the Yanks and could easily build an 80 win team every year instead of doing a full teardown rebuild - but even if they are doing the teardown, tell the fans, do what Theo did, tell them to expect struggles. They also couldn't have drafted much worse - the hit rate on anyone past the 3rd round is like 0.00001%

I think the Cubs have some pieces and have a ton of money for 2024 to make a run for a few years, assuming some of the hitting prospects become real stars (nico, mads, davis, morel, pca, alcantara, caissie) and they can find 2-3 homegrown SPs from their glut (kilian, thompson, steele, wicks, marquez) all of whom are controllable through at least 2027. Add 1-2 stud position players and 2 SPs and they should be the best team in the Central from 2025-2027. Until then? Pain.
 
atldeac23 said:
This Thompson guy is mowing the Braves down.
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He was lights out in long relief this year, but once he was moved to starter has struggled to throw strikes - and when he did, they were meatballs. He does have nasty stuff, relies a lot on his fastball, but throws the cutter and curve a decent amount too. If he puts it together, cut easily be a rotation guy for a long time.
 
The same Thompson who gave up like 7 runs in 2 innings in the 18-1 Yankees loss? Nice bounce back.
 
DaDeacs said:
Cubs saw Quintana as an innings eater who could keep them in games - he turned out to not have the stability the Cubs wanted, but he pitched well enough in 2017 and 2018. Does it suck that Cease and Jimenez are both potential studs? Cease looked like he would be a good starter, but tinstapp - getting a proven starter was what the Cubs needed with Lester starting to wind down and Arrieta in a contract year. Happ is having one of the best years of his career, he will still fetch a good amount if they move him - and the Cubs won the central as recently as 2020 and last year his 1st half was horrendous and they wouldn't have gotten anything for him - this is likely his highest value since the Cubs have been in sell mode.

There really wasn't much to do, I don't mind any of the trades, really - I think they could have just spent money more wisely to be competitive now or just be honest with the fans. They keep blowing smoke about spending, but that the pandemic was challenging, meanwhile the Ricketts were trying to buy Chelsea. They have the money to compete, and even this year could be at least competitive by signing some higher priced FAs on shorter term deals, but they stayed away. The Cubs have the same money as the Yanks and could easily build an 80 win team every year instead of doing a full teardown rebuild - but even if they are doing the teardown, tell the fans, do what Theo did, tell them to expect struggles. They also couldn't have drafted much worse - the hit rate on anyone past the 3rd round is like 0.00001%

I think the Cubs have some pieces and have a ton of money for 2024 to make a run for a few years, assuming some of the hitting prospects become real stars (nico, mads, davis, morel, pca, alcantara, caissie) and they can find 2-3 homegrown SPs from their glut (kilian, thompson, steele, wicks, marquez) all of whom are controllable through at least 2027. Add 1-2 stud position players and 2 SPs and they should be the best team in the Central from 2025-2027. Until then? Pain.
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I read what they are doing differently.

When the Cubs traded Yu it was a stone cold financial move. But Hoyer was given multiple choices on the return. He chose to stock up on several younger players. Risky as all get out, but it appears like it will eventually reap some dividends. Santana is having a great year at SB. He'll never have pop but his on base skills are terrific and his play in the field is already MLB level. Caissie is doing well there as well. Preciado just went on the IL (bummer). Mena is probably a bust. Anyway, that stock pile the younger players thing held on the Baez deal and the Rizzo deal too. On other deals they went with guys a bit closer to the bigs - Canario is at AA, Kilian is now getting shelled in the bigs as he adjusts. Heuer (hurt), Madrigal (looking not so great).

But the contours were obvious - gather talent at all levels of the minors when you tear it down. I think we may see the Cubs trade off Willy and seek players more MLB ready. Ditto on the closer. Not sure they trade Happ.

So let's say they go into next season with these guys locked into the MLB team (or something like this as I'm sure they'll pop up and trade guys you might not have pegged for it) -

Nico
Madrigal
Wisdom
Higgins
Happ
Morel
Seiya
Bote (signed for one more year)
Gomes
Velazquez

Thompson
Alzolay
Steele
Kyle
Kilian

That team isn't winning the World Series but now you've got your draft picks from this year, your trade returns coming in the next month, a number of great arms getting closer to the league and talent across multiple levels of your org. You've built a foundation from which you can succeed. And you also likely have about 65-70M in money available to spend on FA's. It just strikes me as a better set up to be successful longer term vs. the draft college bats and move them fast and sign or trade for arms set up Theo deployed to get to one window.

In re: pitchers - I have heard the Cubs are very pleased with progress Jensen made in altering his delivery and they stone cold love Luis Devers (elite change up). Their minor leaguers have some of the best metrics of any group outside of Cleveland and there are plenty of names to dream on. Whatever changes they've made appear to be paying development dividends finally.
 
Eh, I mean, maybe on the Darvish thing. But then I absolute do not understand the Stro signing - why replace Yu with a larger contract? I get that they got 4 new pieces and technically 1-for-1 replaced an SP1 for another SP1, but they are paying Stro $10-$12 million more over the 3 years.

Cubs have basically $92 million locked in for next year with JHey, Stro, Seiya, Hendricks, Gomes, Boat - will probably have to pay another $25 million in arb money to Happ, Nico, Mads, and a few of the other guys. So, $60-$70 million likely right to keep them under the luxury tax, not sure they spend all that - but they are going to get a big time SS, they claimed, which leaves Nico or Mads out of a position and into the super sub role (Nico a better fit for this). I still don't think they compete next year, but maybe its a 2015 kinda thing - they would need another big time SP and at least one more pro bat outside of Correa/SS - which there isn't a lot of massive upgrades on the FA market for 2023.
 
DaDeacs said:
Eh, I mean, maybe on the Darvish thing. But then I absolute do not understand the Stro signing - why replace Yu with a larger contract? I get that they got 4 new pieces and technically 1-for-1 replaced an SP1 for another SP1, but they are paying Stro $10-$12 million more over the 3 years.

Cubs have basically $92 million locked in for next year with JHey, Stro, Seiya, Hendricks, Gomes, Boat - will probably have to pay another $25 million in arb money to Happ, Nico, Mads, and a few of the other guys. So, $60-$70 million likely right to keep them under the luxury tax, not sure they spend all that - but they are going to get a big time SS, they claimed, which leaves Nico or Mads out of a position and into the super sub role (Nico a better fit for this). I still don't think they compete next year, but maybe its a 2015 kinda thing - they would need another big time SP and at least one more pro bat outside of Correa/SS - which there isn't a lot of massive upgrades on the FA market for 2023.
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Darvish was moved bc cash flows were destroyed in Covid. It was flat out a budget move. Then they created a roster that might be in contention (they were) but could be torn down easily if they fell apart (they did).

Stro is not a SP1. He historically has been a great innings eater and an effective 2-3. And the structure of his contract is also flexible.

The Cubs are locked on 105M before league mins and arbs. I put them on about 140M when the dust on the rest settles. Lux tax is projected at around 220M. I think they are going to turn a corner next year later in the season. I don't see them as 2015. I see them sort of in between 2014 (awful) and 2015 early (you can see it getting better).

I agree with all the primary needs you cited. I think they'll get the SP and the big FA signing. The other bat will be a lesser signing. I don't think payroll pushes the full 220M. I'm most interested in the types of players they get back in trades in the coming months and who goes (will it be more guys closer to the bigs or more layering in lower)? And I agree Nico is better set up to be that UTL guy than Madrigal (only one position works). Keep in mind Morel 1000% also fits that mold. Read yesterday the top 2 thrown balls by a field player this year in terms of velocity are held by . . . Morel. Each well over 100 mph. 92% sprint speed for the league too. Huge value in that guy all over the diamond even as Ross only shoves him in CF.

I think the Cubs should move on from Ross. Not because someone else would do more with the roster per se but bc Ross is just way too rigid and stubborn (keeps playing Heyward every night, does not move guys off set spots, etc.)
 
Nice series win vs. the Cards on the road. Day off Monday after 17 straight games.

Good to have David Bote back on the field. Villar DFA. He had some early run with the bat but Villar's defense was poor.
 
Wondering if Nico's glove will keep him at SS and the Cubs look at something else in the offseason. SS has the highest upside in FA this year with Correa and Turner. and then a mixed bag of hitters at other positions outside of Judge, who reportedly will only go to a winner. He is a GG caliber 2B, but showing he is the same at SS.
 
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