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Conference Expansion: Stanford, California and SMU Join the ACC

Expansion doesn’t kill. It expands. There are far more P5 programs now than there were before Maryland left the ACC. The PAC-whatever won’t die. They’ll just add MWC teams.
 
Deacfreak07 said:
That’s what I was thinking. At some point expansion seems like it doesn’t make sense. It dilutes the payout too much.
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Say you're Oregon/Wash/Cal/Stanford. You either have to go for an extreme discount or the three networks that have B1G's rights have to pony up around $70MM a year per school added in order to not dilute everyone else's payout. It's why they didn't do it in the first place or even just Oregon/Washington who practically begged to get in after UCLA/USC announced. There just isn't $210MM a year.

You also have the awkward timing of the NBA deal coming up in a couple of years that is going to cost ~7-8 BILLION a year. If people are still scared of being heavily (not just spot nights like the NFL has with TNF) in bed with streaming services, this is a ticking time bomb.
 
I could see Saudi money funneling in to get a bigger foothold in college athletics here.
 
CamLemons said:
It's already been reported multiple times that this has been explored in depth.

The numbers don't work.
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I’ve seen multiple reports of Phillips vaguely alluding to “exploring options” but haven’t seen any specific reports about the ACC looking at raiding the PAC-12. Which makes me question what he’s looking at and if he’s being aggressive enough.
 
For Deac's Sake said:
I’ve seen multiple reports of Phillips vaguely alluding to “exploring options” but haven’t seen any specific reports about the ACC looking at raiding the PAC-12. Which makes me question what he’s looking at and if he’s being aggressive enough.
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He’s probably been talking to lawyers a lot lately, but about a different matter
 
Liquid Karma said:
I could see Saudi money funneling in to get a bigger foothold in college athletics here.
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Agree. There has been some wild speculation that the Saudis or some other entity group with immense stupid money, will just pay $1 billion+ to start their own conference with their own set of schools plucked from each of the power conferences.
 
I have read a few pieces recently about how all of this realignment activity strengthens the case for splitting football off from the other sports. Football has the least complicated logistics (only 5-6 road games/year, generally all on weekends with at least a week between games), so let there go be two 24 team super conferences in football than span coast to coast.

But then leave all the other sports in regionally aligned conferences for better logistics, preservation of tradition/rivalries, etc.
 
PhDeac said:
Expansion doesn’t kill. It expands.
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We aren’t there yet. The broadcast rights bubble is going to burst, sooner than later, and it’s going to change the entire landscape. The projections of all these yearly conference revenue graphs that go up, up, and up are wildly misleading. When a stand-alone subscription to the ESPN network costs $100 a month, and there is no more carriage fee profit from cable channel bundling, then we are going to get a an accurate account of what college football broadcasts are actually worth.
 
A FSU co-backup quarterback is on the board of trustees for the university? How much class did that guy even attend?
 
For Deac's Sake said:
I’ve seen multiple reports of Phillips vaguely alluding to “exploring options” but haven’t seen any specific reports about the ACC looking at raiding the PAC-12. Which makes me question what he’s looking at and if he’s being aggressive enough.
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That's essentially how this has to work for legal purposes (here) Thamel isn't putting out that the ACC has been doing their homework on the Pac-12 (oregon/Washington/Stanford/Cal) without them(being the ACC/Phillips/media consultants) actually spending a ton of time. I mentioned it during the Q&A on 24/7 yesterday but I can also attest to them doing a ton of homework on them.

The issue, and there is no way around it, is the $$. There is not enough value in bringing four schools in that only increase the per team payout by ~ 5 million or worse, dilute it even further. You would need ~ $300MM a year from ESPN to even make it somewhat worth it. ESPN is broke, they weren't willing to put that into the entire Pac-12, they are not putting that into four teams moving to a property they already own. The ADs keep saying the money isn't there to add P12 teams (here) because ESPN does not have it

That's why I keep saying while I don't know if Phillips is a good commissioner or not, there's been a ton of work to try and close that gap but the hard truth right now is that networks are struggling for cash.
 
CamLemons said:
That's essentially how this has to work for legal purposes (here) Thamel isn't putting out that the ACC has been doing their homework on the Pac-12 (oregon/Washington/Stanford/Cal) without them(being the ACC/Phillips/media consultants) actually spending a ton of time. I mentioned it during the Q&A on 24/7 yesterday but I can also attest to them doing a ton of homework on them.

The issue, and there is no way around it, is the $$. There is not enough value in bringing four schools in that only increase the per team payout by ~ 5 million or worse, dilute it even further. You would need ~ $300MM a year from ESPN to even make it somewhat worth it. ESPN is broke, they weren't willing to put that into the entire Pac-12, they are not putting that into four teams moving to a property they already own. The ADs keep saying the money isn't there to add P12 teams (here) because ESPN does not have it

That's why I keep saying while I don't know if Phillips is a good commissioner or not, there's been a ton of work to try and close that gap but the hard truth right now is that networks are struggling for cash.
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Yep. Trying to squeeze blood from a turnip.
 
CamLemons said:
That's essentially how this has to work for legal purposes (here) Thamel isn't putting out that the ACC has been doing their homework on the Pac-12 (oregon/Washington/Stanford/Cal) without them(being the ACC/Phillips/media consultants) actually spending a ton of time. I mentioned it during the Q&A on 24/7 yesterday but I can also attest to them doing a ton of homework on them.

The issue, and there is no way around it, is the $$. There is not enough value in bringing four schools in that only increase the per team payout by ~ 5 million or worse, dilute it even further. You would need ~ $300MM a year from ESPN to even make it somewhat worth it. ESPN is broke, they weren't willing to put that into the entire Pac-12, they are not putting that into four teams moving to a property they already own. The ADs keep saying the money isn't there to add P12 teams (here) because ESPN does not have it

That's why I keep saying while I don't know if Phillips is a good commissioner or not, there's been a ton of work to try and close that gap but the hard truth right now is that networks are struggling for cash.
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So...I'm not expecting you to know this, but it make makes me wonder what are the chances that the networks default on the SEC and B1G deals? Probably the only reason that ESPN can afford the SEC deal is that they have such a song on the ACC inventory. If that collapses, how sustainable is the SEC deal as a freestanding product?

The whole game is crazy. The fact that the Mayo Bowl (an afterthought exhibition football game between middle of the pack teams) is basically comparable to UNC-Duke basketball tells you all you need to know about the ACC's leverage.

The December 30 South Carolina-North Carolina Charlotte Bowl, which ended with the Gamecocks' coach receiving a much-publicized dousing of mayonnaise, drew a 1.6 an 2.60 million on ESPN — up 32% in ratings and 31% in viewership from last year..

cf.

Saturday's North Carolina-Duke men's college basketball game averaged a 1.4 rating and 2.86 million viewers on ESPN...
 
This columnist from SaturdayDownSouth.com is right-FSU can make all the noise they want, but there is no place for them to go. Nobody, and especially the SEC and the B1G, wants them.

www.saturdaydownsouth.com

Hayes: FSU wants out of the ACC. The question is: Who wants FSU?

FSU wants the money that SEC and B1G teams are getting, but neither league seems interested in the Noles.
www.saturdaydownsouth.com www.saturdaydownsouth.com

The SEC and Big Ten aren’t inviting any school from any conference unless they’re free and clear from their previous conference. And FSU isn’t exactly a fit for either conference.

If the SEC expands, it will only be for value. Multiple SEC sources told Saturday Down South that there are 2 schools remaining that add value: Notre Dame and North Carolina.

If the Big Ten expands into the state of Florida, multiple industry sources told Saturday Down South the target is Miami. The Canes would deliver a large television market and are a member of the American Association of Universities — of which all but 1 (Nebraska) of the 16-team Big Ten is a member...
 
CaptRenault said:
This columnist from SaturdayDownSouth.com is right-FSU can make all the noise they want, but there is no place for them to go. Nobody, and especially the SEC and the B1G, wants them.

www.saturdaydownsouth.com

Hayes: FSU wants out of the ACC. The question is: Who wants FSU?

FSU wants the money that SEC and B1G teams are getting, but neither league seems interested in the Noles.
www.saturdaydownsouth.com www.saturdaydownsouth.com

The SEC and Big Ten aren’t inviting any school from any conference unless they’re free and clear from their previous conference. And FSU isn’t exactly a fit for either conference.

If the SEC expands, it will only be for value. Multiple SEC sources told Saturday Down South that there are 2 schools remaining that add value: Notre Dame and North Carolina.

If the Big Ten expands into the state of Florida, multiple industry sources told Saturday Down South the target is Miami. The Canes would deliver a large television market and are a member of the American Association of Universities — of which all but 1 (Nebraska) of the 16-team Big Ten is a member...
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So, suck it f$u!
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
We aren’t there yet. The broadcast rights bubble is going to burst, sooner than later, and it’s going to change the entire landscape. The projections of all these yearly conference revenue graphs that go up, up, and up are wildly misleading. When a stand-alone subscription to the ESPN network costs $100 a month, and there is no more carriage fee profit from cable channel bundling, then we are going to get a an accurate account of what college football broadcasts are actually worth.
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I agree. But it’s not clear how that will impact P5 alignment. FBS conferences just add to their numbers. Programs are always interested in moving up.
 
WokeandBroke said:
So...I'm not expecting you to know this, but it make makes me wonder what are the chances that the networks default on the SEC and B1G deals? Probably the only reason that ESPN can afford the SEC deal is that they have such a song on the ACC inventory. If that collapses, how sustainable is the SEC deal as a freestanding product?

The whole game is crazy. The fact that the Mayo Bowl (an afterthought exhibition football game between middle of the pack teams) is basically comparable to UNC-Duke basketball tells you all you need to know about the ACC's leverage.

The December 30 South Carolina-North Carolina Charlotte Bowl, which ended with the Gamecocks' coach receiving a much-publicized dousing of mayonnaise, drew a 1.6 an 2.60 million on ESPN — up 32% in ratings and 31% in viewership from last year..

cf.

Saturday's North Carolina-Duke men's college basketball game averaged a 1.4 rating and 2.86 million viewers on ESPN...
Click to expand...
That's part of the equation that to me doesn't make sense with a lot of the scenarios that get thrown around. All these companies are starting to run real thin on cash. You have the NBA deal coming up after the 24-25 season and they want ~7 billion a year. Notre Dame's exclusive deal with NBC is up in 2025 and they want triple their $22MM contract. The CFP exclusivity contract is up with ESPN after the 25-26 season, and we still don't know how much extra money the expansion in '24 and '25 will bring to the table.

These aren't discussions that can wait until the last minute, these are things that have to get ironed out 10-12 months ahead of time. There are some massive bills that are about to be due and that's on top of non sports programming for businesses like Fox/NBC/CBS/Turner

Now you add on the Big-12 taking on potentially now 4 more teams with Colorado in and Arizona/ASU/Utah potentially announcing there as soon as Friday. That's another 30+ million per team per year that's going to increase over the years that ESPN and Fox have to pay. Oregon and Washington to the B1G with only half shares, let's call it 35 million each per year and growing....

At a certain point the money is running dry.
 
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