I think the Louisville move is genius for a couple of reasons.
1) Best football school we could get
2) Hopefully shores up FSU (Big 12's most likely ACC target)
3) Eliminates one of the strongest Big 12 prospects from the Big East.
I firmly believe that either the Big 12 or the ACC is going to survive mostly intact, but not both. Anything we can do to add to our position while weakening theirs is a good move. By shoring up our position with FSU while eliminating attractive Big 12 targets, we are making it more likely the ACC survives and the Big 12 gets cannibalized.
I agree with this, and like the ACC's chances to survive over the Big 12 for a few reasons.
First, when the Pac 12 expands, which it will, it has only one place to go: west. I can't see the Pac 12 simply adding four Mountain West-type schools. Boise, maybe, but after that it's going to want schools in states like Texas, Oklahoma, and so on. I don't see the Big 10 losing any members to anybody, and the Pac 12 isn't going to look at ACC schools all the way on the other coast. That leaves the Big 12 as the Pac 12's inevitable target. Which is trouble for the Big 12.
Second, despite all the anxiety, the SEC is unlikely to poach from the ACC. FSU, GT, Clemson and now Louisville will all have an extremely hard time getting past the voting block of UF, USC, UGA, and now Kentucky, who want no part of new in-state rivals in their conference. Further, none of those schools add new markets to the SEC, which is the entire point of expansion. Given that UNC, NCSU, and UVA have zero interest in joining the SEC over the ACC, there just isn't a logical move east for the SEC. Which means they'll be eyeing those heartland programs, too.
Third, the Longhorn Network, and the inequitable fiscal playing field it creates in the Big 12, is always going to keep its members on the lookout for a better deal. You think WVU wouldn't jump to the SEC tomorrow, if asked?
Fourth, I don't see the Big 10 looking at more ACC schools for their final two spots. They'll be eyeing a total domination of the Midwestern footprint. Kansas. Oklahoma. Maybe down to Texas. The only ACC targets that make any sense for them are in the northern contingent -- Pitt, Syracuse, or BC -- but the Big 10 has never shown much interest in any of them. I could see Cincy, maybe, but I think the Big 10 has their eyes on bigger prizes. In any event, none of the programs the Big 10 might logically want are crucial to the ACC's future anyway, and there are 2-3 spare Big East programs (Cincy, UCONN, Navy) that could plug any ACC loss in that northern group.
That leaves the Big 12 directly poaching from the ACC -- we're talking about a direct loss of FSU, Clemson, and GT to a conference based solely in the heartland (plus West Virginia). Talk about a logistical nightmare for those southern schools. Plus, the new exit fee, and the full support of those three for the litigation against MD, makes such a move unlikely. The addition of Louisville does as well, since it was basically FSU that picked them. Plus, those three schools have to know that the Big 12 is the future target for the other conferences. The ACC is much more stable, so long as
they don't jump.
So I don't think the Big 12 has the heft to pick off anything from the ACC at this point, after adding Louisville (and appeasing FSU). And I'd be worried if I were the Big 12. Three power conferences: the Pac 12, the Big 10, and the SEC, all want their major markets of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. How can they hold that off, if directly stealing from the ACC is so unlikely?
Edited to add: I didn't discuss Notre Dame, because obviously they are a target for everyone, and will pick wherever they want to land. But they've picked the ACC already, once, and I think that bodes well for eventually keeping them. They want a primarily east coast/northeast affiliation, because that's where their fan-base is, and the ACC is only future game in that area. But we could lose them and still take one of the Big East's last few decent spare parts (UCONN, Cincy, Navy) and be okay.