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Coronavirus !!! Very Political Thread !!!

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I read somewhere that 80% of ventilator patients end up dying, if that's true, why are ventilators so important? Seems tests would be significantly more important
 
palmab03 said:
I read somewhere that 80% of ventilator patients end up dying, if that's true, why are ventilators so important? Seems tests would be significantly more important
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Why even try?
 
palmab03 said:
I read somewhere that 80% of ventilator patients end up dying, if that's true, why are ventilators so important? Seems tests would be significantly more important
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I think it's more like 30%.
 
Do people get on ventilators before there's a near 100% chance of dying without one?
 
DeacMan said:
Italy continues to make small progress towards flattening the curve. New cases day over day are down 12%. Total new cases up less than 6%. It is really sad to call them a "success" right now given the how devastating each day is there. But they are making progress. New cases today were just over 5,200. Only 2 days in the 10 days prior had fewer new cases. 6 of the 10 prior days had new cases in excess of 5,500. Really want to see them make even more progress. One thing that worries me (and concerns me for the US) is how the cases have been largely in one area. Do not want to see a big wave migrate to the South.
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An Italian Doctor On Lessons Learned From The Coronavirus Outbreak
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/...gptnRtCbKt8jDhE5IYoe43CBC0KTXStJw1uJ07CxBJagE

"After initial publication of this article, the university said it had asked four students who returned from the New York area and two of their roommates to self-quarantine, but none of them were referred for testing and none had symptoms. One student who returned from a county with a high number of cases was running a fever and had a cough. He was tested and elected to go home pending the results rather than self-isolate, the university said.

Of the 1,900 students who initially returned last week to campus, Mr. Falwell said more than 800 had left. But he said he had “no idea” how many students had returned to off-campus housing."

Fucking Falwell is going to be responsible for the deaths of many people.
 
Alright - Euro data today. Someone asked if this is Sunday vs. weekday driven. I guess we will learn in the days to come. At least some evidence that last Sunday was a day of "lower" rates in some places as well. But certainly not all of these places.

Italy - New cases down 12.6% vs. yesterday. Day over day total increase now below 6%. New cases today were 5217. Only two days lower in the previous 10. Progress. I want it to go faster.

France - New cases down 40% day over day. Day over day total up about 7%. I fear this one is anecdotal. We shall see tomorrow.

Switzerland - I think this one could be Sunday driven. New cases down 34% day over day.

Netherlands - New cases down day over day 5%. Case loads have been fairly stable for several days in a row. Total case increase of 11% today. If this trend can hold and start to turn down they'll be making headway soon.

Norway - New cases have been between 200-300 for many days. Want to see them turn lower. At least the exponential rise seems in check.

Belgium - New cases down 8% day over day. But yesterday was their heaviest day of new cases by far. Concerned still.

Austria - Oddest set of data in Europe. Here's their last several days of new cases - 636, 372, 223, 1230, 809, 305, 1321, 788, 574, 503. I guess the overall trend looks down. Hope they keep making headway.

Portugal - Last 3 days of new cases 724, 902, 792. Please don't be a Sunday downturn leading to a big Monday.

Spain - Last 5 days suggest we may have hit the peak. Praying so. 7457, 8271, 7933, 7516, 6875.

Germany - Similar to Spain. Just lower numbers. Praying they too have started to bring the daily trend downward.

UK - Consistent numbers between 2500 and 3000 the last 5 or so days.

Japan - I'm concerned. Numbers have been inching up. North of 150 new cases each of the last two days.
 
avalon said:
I feel sorry for the kids (and the people they will infect.)
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And this is why we should withdraw Liberty from the football and basketball schedule. These poor kids are being used in Fallwell’s political stand against the media and Fauci’s cautionary statements in opposition to dear leader. I feel bad for those kids and all the other kids and people they are going to infect.
 
birdman said:
And this is why we should withdraw Liberty from the football and basketball schedule. These poor kids are being used in Fallwell’s political stand against the media and Fauci’s cautionary statements in opposition to dear leader. I feel bad for those kids and all the other kids and people they are going to infect.
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Agree. WF should have nothing to do with Liberty.
 
Still waiting for angus, sailor, etc or any conservative (minus Junebug) to chime in on this thread with their thoughts on the current governments response to the virus
 
Got to love how DeSantis is treating other states like they’re the problem.

He’s putting his wall campaign ad into practice.
 
This practice has been wide spread in Europe. We've had employees put into self-quarantine by their home governments for having previously been in other countries. And many companies have been doing this domestically. The Governor of NY put a shelter in place order in place. Obviously people who flee the state are not complying with that order.
 
Sure, but FL is the problem and DeSantis hasn't done enough to protect Floridians from each other.





"Libertarian legal scholar" Richard Epstein seems like a guy who tells people what they want to hear for a living. Actual science is way out of his domain.

It's also a troubling trend of people who screwed up the HIV crisis in the 1980s being called for help during this crisis.

Here's a related article from WaPo. It's actually a problem throughout the sciences.


[h=1]Coronavirus modelers factor in new public health risk: Accusations their work is a hoax[/h]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/27/coronavirus-models-politized-trump/

Running beneath it all, in a continuous loop through our national psyche, are basic questions leaders are struggling to answer: When can we safely lift these quarantines? How many people could die if we do it too early? Just how dangerous will this pandemic turn out to be? And what exactly should be our next step?

This is why epidemiology exists. Its practitioners use math and scientific principles to understand disease, project its consequences, and figure out ways to survive and overcome it. Their models are not meant to be crystal balls predicting exact numbers or dates. They forecast how diseases will spread under different conditions. And their models allow policymakers to foresee challenges, understand trend lines and make the best decisions for the public good.

But one factor many modelers failed to predict was how politicized their work would become in the era of President Trump, and how that in turn could affect their models.
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Nonetheless, a new model released Thursday by the University of Washington’s School of Medicine is one of the first to forecast a national peak. It projects that the peak in daily U.S. deaths will arrive in mid-April, and the tail end of that curve, subsiding below 10 daily deaths, will arrive by the first week of June.

But that projection comes with huge caveats because of estimations and assumptions that have to be built into the calculation, given how much is still unknown about the disease covid-19.

The model — created by the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation — assumes, for example, that all remaining states that have not enacted strict restrictions on residents will do so in the next week once they see how grave the situation is in areas like New York.

But Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has refused to issue orders for people to stay at home. Alabama’s governor has similarly resisted. And this week, Mississippi’s governor issued an order defining almost all businesses as “essential” — including auto repair, bars and restaurants.
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Republicans love to not know shit. And then when what the experts predicted actually happens, they're like "well, nobody could have known that."
 
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