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Coronavirus !!! Very Political Thread !!!

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So the math from the Univ. of Washington on projected deaths has moved. The worst case has gone from 159K to 177K. The mid case from 83K to 95K and the low case from 36K to 39K.

34 states saw their high estimate lower (including New York). That was offset by big moves north from several states - i.e. Florida, Illinois, Virginia and Alabama.
25 states saw their mid estimate go lower, 1 stayed static, 25 went lower (DC is included in these projections)
14 states saw their low estimate go lower, 36 went higher.

States where all 3 estimates moved higher are: New Jersey, Michigan, Connecticut, Georgia, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Wisconsin, Florida, Maryland, Virginia and Iowa.

States where all 3 estimates moved lower are: Vermont, DC, Delaware, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, Idaho, Arizona, Arkansas, Minnesota, North Carolina and Wyoming.

All moves are based on the 3/31 estimates.
 
palmab03 said:
Just read on FT that the banks are getting like crazy origination fees from the govt

https://www.ft.com/content/c584885c-6d64-4531-99e6-334c6ec0c57c



So our bank will get quite a lot of money for literally one days' work
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The banks will definitely realize some nice origination fees but it’s going to be a lot of work. We will have teams of people working all weekend just reviewing the applications. And we’ve already had teams working around the clock this week in preparation to go live this morning. Then in two months we are going to receive a flood of forgiveness requests where we will have to review and verify a package of information regarding use of proceeds. And it does seem, as expected, that most were not ready to go this morning.
 
hard to feel bad for banks getting handed a stack of loan applications out of thin air.
 
From John Hopkins as of April 1 data. Even if you say this isn't per capita, it's still a steep curve.

dims
 
WRS said:
The banks will definitely realize some nice origination fees but it’s going to be a lot of work. We will have teams of people working all weekend just reviewing the applications. And we’ve already had teams working around the clock this week in preparation to go live this morning. Then in two months we are going to receive a flood of forgiveness requests where we will have to review and verify a package of information regarding use of proceeds. And it does seem, as expected, that most were not ready to go this morning.
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And how many of these businesses and people who own or manage them will become long-term customers because of this? The government is doing a massive marketing campaign for you. Seems like this could be a huge money maker over the long run.
 
MichDeac25 said:
From John Hopkins as of April 1 data. Even if you say this isn't per capita, it's still a steep curve.

dims
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Which again misses the broader point. What does the curve of Spain, Italy, Germany, the UK, France and Holland look like combined? Then you'd have a rough idea of what our curve should perhaps look like. It's 10x more contagious than a typical flu virus. No one has any immunity to it. It transfer while you don't have symptoms. And the US and Western Europe are incredibly mobile societies.
 
I've run a graph of new cases by day for the US and the following countries in Europe (Italy, Spain, Germany, UK, France, Holland). The trend lines look remarkably similar. We are 6-10 days behind their curve and likely their "flattening" on new cases. As such our line looks slightly steeper - i.e. if I time adjusted for when each set first recorded say 5,000 new cases in a day, they'd look virtually the same. Now that could still be off because of differences in testing, reporting, etc. - but it is indicative of where we are headed IMO. Doing that chart shows those Euro nations collectively have started to trend down ever so slightly on new cases.
 
DeacMan said:
So the math from the Univ. of Washington on projected deaths has moved. The worst case has gone from 159K to 177K. The mid case from 83K to 95K and the low case from 36K to 39K.

34 states saw their high estimate lower (including New York). That was offset by big moves north from several states - i.e. Florida, Illinois, Virginia and Alabama.
25 states saw their mid estimate go lower, 1 stayed static, 25 went lower (DC is included in these projections)
14 states saw their low estimate go lower, 36 went higher.

States where all 3 estimates moved higher are: New Jersey, Michigan, Connecticut, Georgia, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Wisconsin, Florida, Maryland, Virginia and Iowa.

States where all 3 estimates moved lower are: Vermont, DC, Delaware, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, Idaho, Arizona, Arkansas, Minnesota, North Carolina and Wyoming.

All moves are based on the 3/31 estimates.
Click to expand...

Not to minimize the deaths of 177K people, but this actually seems like positive news in comparison to some of the projections previously. Is that right?
 
WRS said:
The banks will definitely realize some nice origination fees but it’s going to be a lot of work. We will have teams of people working all weekend just reviewing the applications. And we’ve already had teams working around the clock this week in preparation to go live this morning. Then in two months we are going to receive a flood of forgiveness requests where we will have to review and verify a package of information regarding use of proceeds. And it does seem, as expected, that most were not ready to go this morning.
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Yes, I know this, but I mean they've been working for a week and they'll get $30k in origination fees from us alone. Break that down into an hourly rate on what they'll get from us and they'll make a killing.
 
To put in context, my bank earned $20 million in profits for 2019 total. They are getting $9 million in origination fees from this. It's a huge gift to the banking industry.
 
RJKarl said:
And how many of these businesses and people who own or manage them will become long-term customers because of this? The government is doing a massive marketing campaign for you. Seems like this could be a huge money maker over the long run.
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Good fucking God. People are literally bitching about money being made available interest free.
 
DeaconSig said:
Not to minimize the deaths of 177K people, but this actually seems like positive news in comparison to some of the projections previously. Is that right?
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No. It is actually an erosion of the modeling by this same group from 2 days earlier. And that erosion is largely falling on the projections of a handful of certain states that saw big jumps up in projected deaths - most notably Florida, Illinois, Alabama, Virginia.
 
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DeacMan said:
Why are you conflating profit with revenue?
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Because their only expenses will be slightly higher staffing and overtime costs, so they will realize 8.5 million in profit off that $9 million in revenue. It's not like their rent is going up.
 
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