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COVID Thread 2: Operation Ludicrous Speed ! (Super Political!!!)

DCDeac said:
There was an interesting article from the Times about this and not repeating the mistake of downplaying the use of masks. A big part of the "you don't need to wear a mask" opener in early virus times was a fear that normal folks would buy up the entire mask supply and threaten hospital safety. The actual result was that people leveraged that dishonesty into support for anti-masking. Experts knew masks would be effective, they just didn't know exactly how effective.

Now they are again being borderline dishonest in the messaging around the vaccine risk. The majority of articles say things like "it's still only 95% so you are at risk even after the vaccine, that after you're vaccinated you can still get, carry, and transmit the virus to others" or some spin off those two ideas. The goal is to ensure that in the early months of vaccine distribution everyone doesn't act like we're all good and stop wearing masks. They don't trust folks to get both shots and wait 3 weeks before green-lighting normal activities. But again the dishonesty is fueling distrust in the vaccines, a misunderstanding for how incredibly effective these vaccines are, and how critical it is for folks to get them as soon as possible.

They quoted a number of doctors who said things like, "Is it possible that someone who is a couple weeks past dose 2 to transmit the virus to someone? Technically, maybe. Have I ever heard of that happening in the entire history of viruses, vaccines, and modern disease prevention? No. Never."
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as I said earlier, the main message needs to be "once you get the vaccine(s) and wait the appropriate time, you're not gonna get seriously ill."
 
thatguy2016 said:
again...we have administered an average of 832,000 doses in the past 7 days, and CDC says we have 19 million doses distributed to states awaiting administration.

I would not classify improving from 832,000 to "anywhere near" 1,000,000 over the course of 14 weeks to be a "miracle"
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Not sure, but it seems like the first month might be easier since it was mostly health care workers and people in hospital type facilities, whereas the rest will be general population who have to find a place/time to go. Also, some states seem to be running out of supply this week and I haven't heard anything about additional shipments/stockpiles being provided. New York did 330,000 doses last week but will be out of vaccine in two days. Doesn't seem nearly as miraculous a target as some have made it out to be though.
 
CDC just updated its website

1.02 million doses administered in 24 hours

success!
 
It'll be a perfect case of underpromise and over deliver.. and a nice 100 day win.
 
Also, when we get thru vaxxing the 60+ crowd and the death rate plummets to near zero I'll be curious if interest in getting the vaccine starts to wane.
 
Maybe, but COVID symptoms are no joke and plenty of reason to get the vaccine.
 
PhDeac said:
Maybe, but COVID symptoms are no joke and plenty of reason to get the vaccine.
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Well yeah, I'm getting it for that reason but its going to be a tougher sell to the 40 and under crowd that have nominal statistical risk in their eyes.
 
Liquid Karma said:
Also, when we get thru vaxxing the 60+ crowd and the death rate plummets to near zero I'll be curious if interest in getting the vaccine starts to wane.
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I also think once we get through the 65+ crowd that infections are going to skyrocket because of a combo of the death rate plummeting and people getting even more lax about distancing and masking up if they have been vaccinated already.
 
I have an asthma diagnosis and may be able to get a vaccine earlier than the last group

my plan is to take advantage of that if there is evidence that demand is lagging (as it is among those eligible now), which I suspect is what will happen

if people that are actually vulnerable are actually getting the vaccines at a decent clip then I'll just wait til the last group
 
Well there’s only approximately 240 million people eligible for the vaccine. If they do give 100 million in 100 days and the numbers are believable that 58% would take the vaccine (and that’s before things look like they could return to normal, death rate down, etc...) then we only have 140 million people to vaccinate before it gets to be the opposite of the current struggle and we beg people to go get it. If that’s the case then you could probably show up in like May/June anywhere anytime and get a vaccine. We will have an exponential decay in demand with an exponential growth in supply, weeeee!
 
Louis Gossett Jr said:
Well there’s only approximately 240 million people eligible for the vaccine. If they do give 100 million in 100 days and the numbers are believable that 58% would take the vaccine (and that’s before things look like they could return to normal, death rate down, etc...) then we only have 140 million people to vaccinate before it gets to be the opposite of the current struggle and we beg people to go get it. If that’s the case then you could probably show up in like May/June anywhere anytime and get a vaccine. We will have an exponential decay in demand with an exponential growth in supply, weeeee!
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Don't forget that thevaccines need two shots to be most effective. So if 240 million are eligible, that would require 480 million doses.
 
Deaconblue said:
Don't forget that thevaccines need two shots to be most effective. So if 240 million are eligible, that would require 480 million doses.
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That would take a year and three months at 1 million per day.
 
Liquid Karma said:
It'll be a perfect case of underpromise and over deliver.. and a nice 100 day win.
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Yeah, but that isn't some bullshit political win for Biden. Confidence in our government to do anything has been obliterated. Under promising and over delivering on vaccine distribution would be a nice win for everyone.
 
Frosty said:
I also think once we get through the 65+ crowd that infections are going to skyrocket because of a combo of the death rate plummeting and people getting even more lax about distancing and masking up if they have been vaccinated already.
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Once we’re through this thing, we’ll be looking at the 21st century version of the Roaring Twenties. Woo hoo!
 
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