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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

Yeah I’ve been out of sorts the past few weeks. We are all sick and tired of losing. It’s been a decade.
 
Seems contradictory to say a coach can turn a 3-Star prospect into an NBA prospect in one year, but it’s outrageous to think he could turn another 3-Star into a suitable replacement.
 
NC State:
Lost top 3 scorers (43.9 PPG)
17 spots higher in KenPom


Florida State:
Lost top 3 scorers (39.8 PPG)
55 spots higher in KenPom

Virginia Tech:
Lost top 2 scorers, as well as Outlaw (48.7% from 3) and their big Sy (40.1 PPG)
35 spots higher in KenPom



Keep dem excuses coming.
 
PhDeac said:
Seems contradictory to say a coach can turn a 3-Star prospect into an NBA prospect in one year, but it’s outrageous to think he could turn another 3-Star into a suitable replacement.
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What 3 Star are you referring to? With the loss of only Collins, Doral would’ve been able to fill the hole with Dinos next to him. Instead, we have Thompson next to Doral - which makes our 4 spot a black hole of offensive ability.
 
PhDeac said:
Seems contradictory to say a coach can turn a 3-Star prospect into an NBA prospect in one year, but it’s outrageous to think he could turn another 3-Star into a suitable replacement.
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Who? He seems to have done that with Moore. Who else on the roster in the post? Mitchell, he can contribute in his one year. All the other guys arrived this year, besides Sam and idk what is up with him. Head coach, this is what his sixth season. Give the man a break.

Remember how bad we were, the roster totally overturned. Fuck, we still need post grads to make do. Losing two in that process is massive. Maybe I am just hopeful, have been a Wake fan all of my life.
 
Ayo said:
SJM, sillies
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I believe there to be outside factors in this, but someone with closer connections to the staff/someone close to the program would be able to reflect on that better. I will say, just from what he looked like today, he doesn’t seem to have embraced Ryan Horn as the master S&C coach that he is.
 
Ayo said:
SJM, sillies
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Well, someone stabbed him (can’t remember the story). It takes time to recover, I would imagine. We did see him today, so that was...ok.
 
SkyDivingDeacon said:
Nobody is arguing that Danny is not a good recruiter. It’s what he does with that talent once it gets here. Talent alone will not get the job done and if DM doesn’t start showing some success as a HC, those recruits will stop coming...

He’s got one, maybe two more years IMHO, to show that he’s got what it takes. So far, he really hasn’t shown that at all, regardless of the situation and excuses that many seem to be happy to make for him. Time to put up or shut up...
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Success can be defined in several ways. Success as a team and success as an individual player. DM was certainly a large part of JC's success as JC himself stated. If DM continues to be a part of players developing to become members of the NBA, many recruits will elect to play for Wake despite a suboptimal team performance/record. Obviously, all would prefer individual and team success.
 
I guess it is impossible for Manning to replace 3 players in one year despite the fact that is probably average or below average attrition these days.

Maybe that's because they left early. Then again manning is targeting top ranked players. If these guys pan out, they will leave early. If Hoard is anywhere near as good as advertised, he will not be here long.
So we are going after top ranked players that may likely leave early but we can't just reload. Looks like built in excuses for indefinite failure.

Lot of the same guys that defended BZ are now defending Manning. Looks like some people have the ability to discern and some prefer to see what they want to see.

Just look at NC State's long walk in the wilderness to see where this leads.
 
knowell said:
I guess it is impossible for Manning to replace 3 players in one year despite the fact that is probably average or below average attrition these days.

Maybe that's because they left early. Then again manning is targeting top ranked players. If these guys pan out, they will leave early. If Hoard is anywhere near as good as advertised, he will not be here long.
So we are going after top ranked players that may likely leave early but we can't just reload. Looks like built in excuses for indefinite failure.

Lot of the same guys that defended BZ are now defending Manning. Looks like some people have the ability to discern and some prefer to see what they want to see.

Just look at NC State's long walk in the wilderness to see where this leads.
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“Average attrition” generally comes from transfers who don’t play a lot, no? The attrition coming from players leaving early for the draft generally come from programs that have the ability to reload with talent year in and year out and that aren’t in the middle of rebuilds.

I never defended redacted. I defend Manning because I actually like him as a human, he seems to be able to recruit very well, and I believe him to be a good game planner. I recognize his fallbacks, but think he can overcome those.

I will say that hiring and firing three coaches in a decade is absolutely no recipe for success. Wellman made a historically awful decision to hire redacted and that set us back more than I ever thought we could be set back. Manning is yet to be seen, but I have high hopes for him. IMO, five years is a good amount of time to tell if a coach will be able to succeed or not. If it gets past next year and we suck and the 2019 recruiting class is not good, then Wellman will have to make moves. If he takes us to the tournament, we have yet another good class coming, Sarr becomes as good as we think he may be, and it is obvious we will see further success in the future - then Manning is the guy.

I also don’t think a lot of you realize the pitfall that would occur if we got rid of Manning right now. For starters, Wellman would be making yet another basketball coaching hire and we obviously don’t want that. Second, we would starting this entire rebuild all over again - assuming the players manning brought in would transfer. We are in this for at least another year, and it is my belief that manning will end up working out well for us. We will see.
 
knowell said:
I guess it is impossible for Manning to replace 3 players in one year despite the fact that is probably average or below average attrition these days.

Maybe that's because they left early. Then again manning is targeting top ranked players. If these guys pan out, they will leave early. If Hoard is anywhere near as good as advertised, he will not be here long.
So we are going after top ranked players that may likely leave early but we can't just reload. Looks like built in excuses for indefinite failure.

Lot of the same guys that defended BZ are now defending Manning. Looks like some people have the ability to discern and some prefer to see what they want to see.

Just look at NC State's long walk in the wilderness to see where this leads.
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It is not just about replacing players. It is also about knowing when a particular player will need to be replaced, and when it is known what the replacement time for a player is. I guarantee you there is a chart somewhere with all the non-senior scholarship guys and the signed incoming recruits names on it, with a projected year to replace them.

For Wake, it generally takes about two years of recruiting effort to get a guy from interested to LOI signed. Wake doesn't have the luxury of just "selecting" amongst the 5 stars to fill the available vacancies.

When players leave unexpectedly early, the lead time is shortened. This past year, the need replacement year for john Collins jumped to 2018 with about 6 months notice. Danny filled in pretty well with Sarr. For Dinos, the need to replace him in 2018 arose in a period of about 2 weeks, very much in the middle of summer, after pretty much all the grad transfers had gone elsewhere. Hence the deficit at PF.

With 5* guys, it is reasonable to start recruiting a replacement even before the guy sets foot on campus. Two years is about the most you should plan to get. One year is a pretty reasonable expectation. Thus Danny is probably anticipating a need to replace at least one of the 2018 freshmen with a 2019 freshman.

This is a good problem to have in that the talent level will be high. In the short term, early, unexpectedly good development is an issue because high caliber replacement players aren't in the pipeline. As the pipeline fills, it will be easier to manage unexpected early departures.
 
Manning (Randolph?) has recruited very well. The unexpected losses of JC and Greek were huge. Sarr and Thompson were very good 11th hour “replacements.” But this year’s team has way too much talent to be 8-9. We play no defense on 3 point shooters. Wide open 3 after wide open 3 while Manning drifts in and out of a coma. I just want him to jump somebody’s ass one time for being lazy on defense. Our team mirrors the personality of it’s coach, particularly on defense. Let’s bump chests and slap the floor. We play defense like a bad NBA team trying to get a higher draft choice.
 
It is a little silly to endlessly blame the season on Dinos leaving a season early. Recruiting a 4 was not a high priority for 2018, Danny was much more concerned with the fantasy of Crawford leaving early than the certainty of Dinos graduating. If Dinos had announced two or three months sooner, I think there’s a decent chance that we would have just carried an empty scholarship. If Dinos was so important then there should have already been a replacement in the class of 2017 so he could be seasoned before playing a big role. At a minimum, recruiting a 4 should have certainly been a higher priority for 2018. It’s clear that Danny doesn’t want to have two big players on the floor at the same time (rather he wants two guards, two wings, and a big man), and it’s his fault that we don’t have the players for his ideal scheme in year 4.

The roster is Danny’s and is not an excuse. Ultimately, we are bad this year because 2016 recruiting hasn’t paid off.
 
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Crawford leaving early is definitely a fantasy, and always has been so. He's simply not good enough and never has been.
 
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SkyDivingDeacon said:
Nobody is arguing that Danny is not a good recruiter. It’s what he does with that talent once it gets here. Talent alone will not get the job done and if DM doesn’t start showing some success as a HC, those recruits will stop coming...

He’s got one, maybe two more years IMHO, to show that he’s got what it takes. So far, he really hasn’t shown that at all, regardless of the situation and excuses that many seem to be happy to make for him. Time to put up or shut up...
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Agree with this mostly. Next year he has to win. Sub .500 in conference won’t get it done. If we don’t experience much attrition the 19-20 will have pretty big expectations. So Manning has 2 years after this one to prove that his model works, and that he is a savvy enough coach to survive at this level.

I am not certain he can, but I think our talent will be there to give him a legitimate opportunity. We just aren’t there yet this year. It sucks, but sometimes that is how it goes for a team.
 
DM should never have been hired in the first place and I believe we are just wasting time retaining him. This is his team and should be held accountable. Transfers, leaving early are part of college b-ball and 4 years is enough time to build a decent program. Barnes at Tennessee and Dixon at TCU are good examples of how to rebuild quickly. DM should be let go at the end of the season but I believe everyone realizes that will not happen. The minimum achievement to retain him after next season is at least 1 NCAA tournament win. Play in games do not count. Any thing short of this and he should be shown the door
 
bluefish said:
Crawford leaving early is definitely a fantasy, and always has been so. He's simply not good enough and never has been.
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There are leagues other than the NBA where he can make money playing basketball. If he feels he has no chance at a NBA career, he may choose to leave college basketball after his junior year to begin making money a year earlier as Dino did last year. He definitely is talented enough to make money playing professional basketball. That is not a fantasy and several posters have noted that was/is (?) his stated intent. However, he is a 21 year old so who knows if he still feels the same way today. I hope he continues to develop his game and pursue the dream of an NBA careeer. His talent level doesn't seem to be the limiting issue in his game. His decision making and perhaps variable lack of effort on defense seem too be his greatest problems
 
No. I was including all those leagues when I stated this. They can, and will, find better players. Unless he makes a massive progression between now and when he leaves, he will be hard pressed to find anyone who wants to pay him.
 
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