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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

deacvision7 said:
So, if I understand this correctly, we all acknowledge that the talent level on the current team isn't quite good enough to win a lot of basketball games. The players we have coming in are probably not good enough to start for a team without the required talent to win a lot of basketball games. Their addition, however, will lead to our team winning a lot of basketball games.


Somehow I feel like my comprehension skills are just lacking today due to this head cold. Can somebody please explain to me how we take a less than talented team that is 1-7 in conference, add in players that won't be good enough to start, and become a team that will win a lot of games?
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Because our 1-7 conference record isn't indicative of how well we've played over those 8 games. We will lose absolutely no one of any positive value after this season, and Dinos, Crab, Greg & Mitch will all get better as sophomores. If you add in 3 top 100 players to play minutes that are currently being occupied by Darius Leonard and Andre Washington to name a few, combined with an easier conference schedule next year, then you have a serious turnaround.
 
Also, our schedule the first 8 games has broken about as badly as possible. All of the games we would likely lose anyway (Duke, Louisville, UNC) we got at home, and with the exception of GT (surprise our lone W), we have played all the easier teams at their place (FSU, Clemson, even a so-so Cuse). Add to that we've lost all those games in OT and or a last second shot and just saying 1-7 doesn't tell the whole story.
 
Who are the 4 ACC teams we play twice next year? Duke, State, and who else? VT?
 
deaclite said:
CMM and DT get their FT% up to 70% or so and reduce their turnovers from 6 to 4 per game and be effective senior leaders. Also, our 3 promising frosh all make a big jump as sophs. Then add a shooter with size to the mix. Everyone else can be mixed and matched as needed.
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PhDeac said:
We'll have a stronger bench.
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CumberlandDeac said:
Because our 1-7 conference record isn't indicative of how well we've played over those 8 games. We will lose absolutely no one of any positive value after this season, and Dinos, Crab, Greg & Mitch will all get better as sophomores. If you add in 3 top 100 players to play minutes that are currently being occupied by Darius Leonard and Andre Washington to name a few, combined with an easier conference schedule next year, then you have a serious turnaround.
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Let's say that 3 of our close losses would have broken the other way and we pick up those wins. That's still just 4-3 in conference and the argument could just as easily be made that we won't win those close games next season if the ball bounces another direction. We lost the games, maybe next year we win them, but we aren't "due" to win any close games just because we lost a good number this year.

I also don't think all 4 freshman will make big strides this summer. That just isn't realistic. Maybe one or two will do it though, I could see that happening. (Mitch and Crab would be my guesses from what I've seen)

"Top 100" players don't really make much impact as freshman historically, correct? So those guys will probably start making significant contributions in their junior years, if not around the conference schedule of their sophomore years.


Ph's point is the strongest. Our bench will be improved. I just don't think that will make enough of a difference from where we are now to being a tourney team.
 
Arguably bench play is our biggest weakness though, right?
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
Also, our schedule the first 8 games has broken about as badly as possible. All of the games we would likely lose anyway (Duke, Louisville, UNC) we got at home, and with the exception of GT (surprise our lone W), we have played all the easier teams at their place (FSU, Clemson, even a so-so Cuse). Add to that we've lost all those games in OT and or a last second shot and just saying 1-7 doesn't tell the whole story.
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So sitting at 3-4 in conference sound like your "best case" scenario for this team if things broke the right way for us more often than not?

I'm having a hard time getting my head around the fact that we are looking at a pretty mediocre (at best) team and then projecting them to be a tourney team next season without adding any superstar talent. I just don't get it.
 
deacvision7 said:
Shooting would be my argument.

I think benches in college bball are a luxury more than a necessity.
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Idk. We get out to leads and can't hold them. We have a couple shooters. More would be nice (i.e. depth).
 
deacvision7 said:
So sitting at 3-4 in conference sound like your "best case" scenario for this team if things broke the right way for us more often than not?

I'm having a hard time getting my head around the fact that we are looking at a pretty mediocre (at best) team and then projecting them to be a tourney team next season without adding any superstar talent. I just don't get it.
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I think we'd have to overachieve expectations by a good bit to be a bubble team next year, I was just saying that 1-7 isn't really that indicative of this team. Bz was 1-7 his first 8 ACC games but he lost every single ACC game that year by double digits except for the single game he won.
 
Our luck in KenPom is also 329th in the country. I'm sure this will make DV7 agree more with me about our elite turnaround next year.
 
deaclite said:
The real reason is because the basketball gods owe us. We are all good people who have suffered.
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The gambling gods owe me, but I'm not going to throw $10,000 down on one number in roulette expecting it to hit.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Our luck in KenPom is also 329th in the country. I'm sure this will make DV7 agree more with me about our elite turnaround next year.
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no such thing as luck in sports (other than horrible calls going your way/against you)
 
Well since you brought it up, I wouldn't mind a friendly wager on next season's record.
 
deacvision7 said:
So, if I understand this correctly, we all acknowledge that the talent level on the current team isn't quite good enough to win a lot of basketball games. The players we have coming in are probably not good enough to start for a team without the required talent to win a lot of basketball games. Their addition, however, will lead to our team winning a lot of basketball games.


Somehow I feel like my comprehension skills are just lacking today due to this head cold. Can somebody please explain to me how we take a less than talented team that is 1-7 in conference, add in players that won't be good enough to start, and become a team that will win a lot of games?
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Per Rivals, FWIW, next year's class is the highest rated we've had since 2008 and AT&T. But numbers wise -- using their metrics -- this class is close to AFA's 46.95 / 19th in team rankings with a current 45.9 and 18th team rank.

Considering the flop that Ty ended up being and the underachievement of Tony Woods, I'm gonna go out on a limb that both JC and Doral are better. But will they be "better enough" next year to make a meaningful difference? I think it might get us back up around 17-19 wins, but who knows in the loaded ACC.
 
Kind of silly to do that without knowing the OOC schedule. 9-9 in ACC play, NIT would be my prediction right now. I like the players coming in but not sure they're gonna make enough of an impact in Year 1 to get us a tourney bid.
 
Ayo said:
Kind of silly to do that without knowing the OOC schedule. 9-9 in ACC play, NIT would be my prediction right now. I like the players coming in but not sure they're gonna make enough of an impact in Year 1 to get us a tourney bid.
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I'm around here.
 
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