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Danny Manning Credibility Watch

Perhaps not (didn't see that part live, just heard announcers saying they were trying to foul, WTF), but no excuse to have one of your players travel in that situation. Gotta drill it in their heads that they can't do that.

Louisville fans are not happy with this season, nor should they be off a 2 seed last year and a #16 preseason ranking. Padgett sucks
 
wsc8521s said:
Perhaps not (didn't see that part live, just heard announcers saying they were trying to foul, WTF), but no excuse to have one of your players travel in that situation. Gotta drill it in their heads that they can't do that.

Louisville fans are not happy with this season, nor should they be off a 2 seed last year and a #16 preseason ranking. Padgett sucks
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I doubt anyone is dumb enough to say foul a three point shooter down four.

I’m just pissed because Wake sucks shit. 😉
 
Is anybody wondering when this team is going to start playing hard this season? They have been talking about it a lot in postgame interviews.
 
wsc8521s said:
No doubt. Would think they'd have to be considered
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I can’t find a link this morning, but I have a memory that when the UMASS deal fell apart, part of the settlement for Kelsey was that if he left Winthrop less than two years after ditching UMASS at the alter, he’d have a huge penalty to pay. I can’t remember the timeline, but Kelsey may not be available for another season.
 
birdman said:
I can’t find a link this morning, but I have a memory that when the UMASS deal fell apart, part of the settlement for Kelsey was that if he left Winthrop less than two years after ditching UMASS at the alter, he’d have a huge penalty to pay. I can’t remember the timeline, but Kelsey may not be available for another season.
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Perfect. If Manning doesn't meet expectations next year, I'd love to get Kelsey. I think he'd have a great shot to hold on to current players. If I remember, he was a good recruiter and looks to be a great up and coming coach.
 
With regard to that Louisville/UVA game, that last inbound play was nothing. They had a player make a play, and it lead to UVA remaining #1. It's the type of thing that when you're a sucky team, you would harp on and ask "Why are our guys just standing there? Do we even run plays?" When you're #1, you let it slide.
 
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Demonwolverine said:
With regard to that Louisville/UVA game, that last inbound play was nothing. They had a player make a play, and it lead to UVA remaining #1. It's the type of thing that when you're a sucky team, you would harp on and ask "Why are our guys just standing there? Do we even run plays?" When you're #1, you let it slide.
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Huh? They ran a play to get him open. It worked. He scored. They won.
 
RacerDeac said:
Huh? They ran a play to get him open. It worked. He scored. They won.
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Agree to disagree. They inbounded the ball 25 feet away, Louisville completely spazzed on D and the guy banked it in. Not exactly how you draw them up.
 
Looks like lady deacs have same curse as the men---take lead on Miami 3 min to go then score just 2 points in final 3 mins to lose
 
jaybone said:
Pack line D is what Odom played, right?
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I recall people saying that the Pack-Line D that Gaudio implemented was really similar to the defense that Odom preferred, but when Odom did it in the 90's it hadn't been named yet.
 
Whatever it was called back then was light years better than the D we're seeing now.

DC says that he has Odom at practices but we're not seeing any evidence that is the case.
 
Man to man is particular difficult when their men are better than your men.
 
birdman said:
I recall people saying that the Pack-Line D that Gaudio implemented was really similar to the defense that Odom preferred, but when Odom did it in the 90's it hadn't been named yet.
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I call it "Championship Defense" or maybe "BtoB Title Defense" Whatever it was, RW didn't like it, just as he didn't like our baseball coach who had won 600+ games & 3 ACC titles and got rid of him after his first losing season. See where it took us in basketball & baseball trusting RW to make those decisions.
 
Demonwolverine said:
With regard to that Louisville/UVA game, that last inbound play was nothing. They had a player make a play, and it lead to UVA remaining #1. It's the type of thing that when you're a sucky team, you would harp on and ask "Why are our guys just standing there? Do we even run plays?" When you're #1, you let it slide.
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But what Louisville didn't have happen was their inbounder not make a play right before. Not only did he have the throw-in spot violation, of all things but he only had to get it inbounds near half court and let somebody touch it. Game over with .9 on the clock. Throw it towards your basket, down the court. End of story. That ending was just like ours at home against UVa a few years ago with CMM & Thomas.
 
TheReff said:
But what Louisville didn't have happen was their inbounder not make a play right before. Not only did he have the throw-in spot violation, of all things but he only had to get it inbounds near half court and let somebody touch it. Game over with .9 on the clock. Throw it towards your basket, down the court. End of story. That ending was just like ours at home against UVa a few years ago with CMM & Thomas.
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Bad coaching. Had a timeout left. Had to remind them to not foul the 3 point shooter if called it earlier and to throw past midcourt and stay in one spot if called it before the inbounds. That being said, two stupid plays by the Lville players. Combine that with UVA’s good coaching and will to win, and you have one of the worst meltdowns of all time. Bob Ryan called it the worst he has seen in 66 years. It was just a bit worse than WF’s meltdown vs UVA.
 
I am in favor of giving Manning one more season, mainly because there is no Kevin Keatts type candidate out there that checks all of my boxes (successful turnaround + sustained success as a head coach, success as a mid-major head coach, and elite recruiting experience as an assistant). Earl Grant is the closest, but it’s going to take another year to convince me of sustained success (+ he doesn’t have those blue blood recruiting ties).

Additionally, we are due to have a nice level of talent next season and the first balanced roster of Manning’s tenure (of course, some of that is on Manning) so best to see how he does with that so we have a more complete view on his capabilities as a coach.

That said, I am not optimistic. Wake has underperformed fan expectations for three of his four years. On average, Wake has won 3.25 fewer games per season than the board predicted (that assumes we end up with 13 wins this season, which is an optimistic take). Wake has underperformed its Kenpom preseason ranking in three of his four years. On average, Wake has finished 18 spots lower than Kenpom’s preseason ranking (assuming a finish of 86 this year). The one preseason vs end of season comparison Wake has done alright in during Manning’s tenure is the preseason media poll vs ACCT seed. Literally dead even on average, underperforming 2 years and overperforming 2 years. (note – I usually throw out the first year, but that would actual hurt his averages).

The year that no one wants to talk about is 2015-16. We replaced Madison Jones, Aaron Rountree, and Darius Leonard with John Collins, Bryant Crawford, and Doral Moore. We won two fewer games, finished two spots worse in the ACC, and went from 120 to 118 in Kenpom. A disastrous year.

The exception to all of this is, of course, last season. This is where things get tricky. Manning definitely gets a ton of credit for Collins, but, at the same time, it’s worth wondering if it is repeatable. Collins was the product of some combination of excellent player development and excellent talent identification. Before, during, and after Manning’s hire, I have been an advocate of his ability to develop big men. No quibbles there. But, on the talent identification side, well plenty of coaches have found a 3 star player who turned into a NBA lottery talent. Stevens found Hayward. Reed found McCollum. Ryan found Kaminksy. Hell, [Redacted] found Burks. Not many guys have done it twice though. Of course, this isn’t to say that talent identification is all luck, it isn’t, but a one-off instance could just be luck. Or it could be that he does have a great ability to identify talent (due to intuition, pure hustle, novel tools, or some combination of the three), and we will start to see that pay off by seeing players perform above their rank, albeit likely more marginally than Collins did. I would be interested to see what others think, but I don’t think we can really make too many conclusions about Manning’s ability to spot talent.

The other problem that season highlights is that we were a much better team than our record indicated. We finished 290th in luck, which, as I understand it, basically describes our ability to convert efficiency into wins. Like most stats, a one year outlier can be brushed aside, but, over his head coaching career, Manning has finished 49th, 234th, 240th, 106th, 290th, and 349th. I am not sure exactly how to interpret that, but it can hardly be a good indicator.

2014-15:
Fans
-Preseason: 15-16 regular season wins
-Actual: 13 regular season wins
Kenpom
-Preseason: 104
-Actual: 120
ACC Media
-Preseason: 12th
-Actual: 11th seed
2015-16
Fans
-Preseason: 16 regular season wins
-Actual: 11 regular season wins
Kenpom
-Preseason: 60
-Actual: 118
ACC Media
-Preseason: 11th
-Actual: 13th seed
2016-17
Fans
-Preseason: 17 regular season wins
-Actual: 18 regular season wins
Kenpom
-Preseason: 67
-Actual: 36
ACC Media
-Preseason: 13th
-Actual: 10th seed
2017-18
Fans
-Preseason: 20 wins through the ACCT
-Most likely outcome: 11 to 13 wins through the ACCT
Kenpom
-Preseason: 57
-Most likely outcome: 86
ACC media
-Preseason: 11th
-Most likely outcome: 13th or 14th seed

It goes without saying that all of these measures are imperfect, with different biases and limitations, but I do think it is pretty conclusive that they directionally agree in Y2, Y3, and Y4. Two years of underachievement and 1 year of overachievement.
 
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