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Dem win NY House race

meandmyuncleDeac said:
The New York race was clearly a referendum on medicare and the "Ryan Budget Plan". And a very conservative district didn't like the Republican message on medicare!

Democrats, we've found our issue!
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The Pubs are too good at strategy to let this take them down. They'll start walking this plank back, and count themselves lucky it only cost them one seat. Expect a full retreat on Medicare cuts.
 
This issue is a perfect example of why we're screwed. Both parties try to invoke fear on the part of voters in order to get elected. The problem is that the only way that strategy works is if they can convince the voters that the thing they should be afraid of is imminent. Otherwise, there is no reason to be afraid.

Pubs were successful in convincing people they should be afraid because another terrorist attack is imminent. Dems seem to be gaining traction convincing voters, seniors in particular, they should be afraid pubs are going to leave them without medical care.

Because people generally don't think our national debt and the bankruptcy that will ensue is imminent, there is no reason for them to be afraid. It's a non-starter as far as voters are concerned. At the point where the problem becomes imminent in the mind of voters, it will probably be too late.
 
ArlingtonDeac said:
The Pubs are too good at strategy to let this take them down. They'll start walking this plank back, and count themselves lucky it only cost them one seat. Expect a full retreat on Medicare cuts.
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Agreed. This ended up being a great trial balloon for them. They found out what kind of reaction the voters will have on this issue and at very little cost.
 
The difference between a "trial ballon" and this is they have voted for this. A "trial ballon" rarely makes it to the floor for a vote.
 
Exactly. Only 4 Republicans in the House voted against the Ryan thing. the rest are on record.

Now, Senator Reid is going to put it to a vote in the Senate. I bet even Mitch McConnell votes against it!
 
Charts did really well for Ross Perot.

All the public has to know is Ryan wants everyone under 55 to get a voucher for their healthcare when they reach 65 and then BUY insurance from for profit comanies with it as they age.

OH yeah and he is doing tihs to give those who make over $250K/year a 30+% TAX CUT.

Seniors -FUVK you pay much more for insurance so that we can pay the rich a bonus EVERY year as you pay more for your insurance.

YEP, this is a really good thing to run on.

Please tell the 40yo who can't insurance now how he'll be able to buy insurance with his voucher at 68.
 
This is the rare case where the best reaction by the GOP would be *gasp* straight shooting. The GOP should say, "we've heard the voice of the people on this issue, and they reject our Medicare cuts, so it will no longer be part of our budget plan." Leave the Dems nowhere to go. Charts about something the Pubs already publicly acknowledged was a bad idea would serve no purpose. Take the small hit to avoid the larger one, and show some candor in the process.

Whatever the GOP does, they can't stonewall on the issue, or it will kill them in 2012. It's still going to hurt regardless, but it can be overcome if it's abandoned quickly and publicly.
 
The problem they have is if they run away from their own votes they would be running away from why they were elected. They ran in 2010 for "bing different" and "bringing accountability to Congress".

If the choice becomes between the two devils you don't like, you are likely to choose the one that didn't vote to take away your healthcare when you reach 65.
 
I agree that they are in a bind regarding the votes on the current Ryan budget. But that's a 2011 budget, and they will still control the framework of the 2012 budget.
 
I saw an article yesterday that took the position that the British parliamentary system is better than ours. Issue like the budget crisis here support that position. It would be nice if we could get past partisan bickering and really accomplish something. We may indeed be screwed, but mainly because no one has any desire or reason to compromise.
 
The problem with that is they have lots of rules regarding campaign financing. After Citizens United if we had that type of system, corporations would have even more cotnrol over Congress.

Think about i. if an election was called on short notice who could fund those who are running?
 
Let's say the Pubs walk this plank back. then what?

What sets them apart from Obama and the Dems if they don't have this? The wedge moral issues like abortion and gay marriage aren't resonating with voters this time around - those issues work best in times of prosperity. Right now its jobs/economy - and the only jobs solution the Pubs have is deficit/debt reduction.

I still don't see how they connect a line from deficit/debt reduction to jobs in 2011 and 2012. I just don't see it, and I don't think other average Americans see it either.
 
They fall back on budget cuts in other areas, and harp on increased taxes and social issues. Demonize health care. Go after meaningless budget minutia like the NEA or public radio. Attack the performance of the economy under Obama and label the Dems as huge spenders. Same as always. Attack the current performance while keeping your own plan vague and simple (hello Tea Party).

The next election will be determined by economic performance over the next 18 months. If it stays the same or improves, Obama wins. If it tanks, he loses. By removing the Medicare scare, things simply return to the political status quo (which favors an Obama reelection but a Pub House, with Senate up for grabs).

I'd bet more on the Dems than the Pubs going into 2012, but a tactical retreat on Medicare gives the Pubs a chance to reframe the core issues, and they are always better at that than the Dems.
 
^I agree, and I was halfway asking rhetorically. They had successfully generated hysteria over the debt/deficit and had some momentum. Ryan became a bona fide star with it. They seemed to be putting all their chips in on it. "Obama's drunken spending will bring down America" was a message that had some legs - even though it was total bullshit - you have to spend in recession. Either way they're screwed now. Abandon it and they are forced to fall back on the NEA and the beige plan you described. Independents don't GAF about that shit....


they need a legit jobs solution, and they don't have one. Slashing spending and reforming medicare doesn't do shit for jobs.
 
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Shorty said:
All of this piddly crap as to which party, dem or pub, has the upper hand is literally the 21st century version of fiddling while Rome burns.
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Maybe, but there's also needless hysterical panic being created to effectuate political agendas. The house has structural flaws, but it's not burning.
 
Go said:
Paul Ryan responds:

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I just watched this, and i don't understand why the bureaucrats are so bad. Aren't they Americans who will have to live under this plan too?

And how will elderly people with vouchers lower costs and raise quality with doctors? The little diagram just took a giant leap with that one. All he said was "it will lower costs and raise quality, just like always happens when the consumer is in charge.." WTF? that's it?

Humans aren't widgets. Providers won't have to lower prices for palliative care or disease management to stay in business the way the local plumber has to compete on snaking the sink.
 
WakeandBake, surely you know by now that according to Republicans, public employees aren't people.
 
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