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Duke at Wake, Saturday 10/30 at ...

lbdeac94 said:
ESPN FPI gives us only 40%chance of beating Clemson on road and 46% chance of beating NC State at home? What the fuck kind of metric are they using?
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https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/122612/an-inside-look-at-college-fpi

What goes into FPI?
Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team's net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.
In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season. Vegas similarly includes priors when setting its lines.
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What goes into the preseason ratings?
Preseason ratings historically have their flaws, but ultimately they allow for an opponent adjustment after Week 1 and are a great tool to preview the season. As noted, there are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.
-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.
-- Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it’s not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.
-- FPI uses four recruiting services -- ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele -- to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.
-- Coaching tenure is primarily a way to capture the addition of a new head coach. With all else equal, a team’s predictive offensive, defensive and special teams ratings will regress slightly to the mean with the addition of a new coach.
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So a bunch of confirmation bias bullshit.
 
awakegirl said:
As soon as this announcer says, “I refuse to have the conversation about college playoff,” I blurt out “fuck you.” Kids be damned.
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i don't think his point was wake shouldn't be in it
 
FPI seems to be leaning too heavily on preseason inputs for this point in the season
 
TenaciousKory said:
i don't think his point was wake shouldn't be in it
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It was still lame AF. If they don’t make it, shouldn’t take away from the season. You’re the ACCN. He should be saying- if they’re undefeated, it will be a travesty if they don’t make it.
 
awakegirl said:
He’s a Deac. His wife is a Deac and her family’s in VA. We should take that shot.
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Oh I agree. I'd love to have them back in the fold. Great couple.

awakegirl said:
As soon as this announcer says, “I refuse to have the conversation about college playoff,” I blurt out “fuck you.” Kids be damned.
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Yeah really. That's some LOWF crap from a former ACC player. Same justification that could be used to deny undefeated Wake a spot. "This season will still be special for Wake even if they don't get a shot at a championship."
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
FPI seems to be leaning too heavily on preseason inputs for this point in the season
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FPI is basically saying, "Yeah. I know Wake's offense is unstoppable, but they just have a bunch of 3* athletes."

The system just turns all the bias that clogs up college football into a metric that people can use to justify their bias.
 
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