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E is for Ebola (Dallas TX)

I wasn't talking about screening. There were ads and electronic screens everywhere in the Atlanta customs area warning about MERs as a health concern. It was more of a reminder to be cautious if coming from the Middle East and informing people about the symptoms and what to do if they had them. None that I saw were about Ebola and entering from west Africa, which I found pretty odd.
 
Do you sit around worrying that HIV will mutate into an airborne virus?
Of course not because we know a lot about HIV in huge populations. But there were worries early on that it might, that's undeniable.
I also happen to believe that a virus with a 40+ year history of not evolving to be transmissible through the air from human to human is one that the CDC has a pretty good handle on.
Except that history was rural in extreme isolation. This is the first time it's hit an urban population. Historically, they could only observe certain things in isolation and make extrapolations and assumptions about it's behavior. That's how they generate the modeling...and it's acting differently. Doesn't mean worse, just different. The spread is going to introduce the virus to new animals as well, especially when it crosses continents. Other carriers could emerge. Dogs carry it, although there is no known record of dog to human transmission. They're still killing all dogs in contact because of the potential risks of it occurring. They can't prove it doesn't happen.

As long as it doesn't change and get worse, then it can be contained pretty easily. It could mutate into nothing too. But there are a lot of serious unknowns about it and given it kills >60% of those infected right now, I don't think it's a good idea to be so cavalier about it or misleading the public that the risks are zero. And it really doesn't help at all to be constantly wrong about all the little things. That erodes trust.

I was actually at a meeting this afternoon with some of the top vaccine people in the US, including the CDC, BARDA, NIH, GSK, Novartis, Merck, etc. Ebola was of course a hot topic. GSK is getting fast track approval for their Ebola vaccine and are simultaneously developing the manufacturing process which is a first they said. Usually a company doesn't invest in manufacturing until they show efficacy, but BARDA is working with them and the impression was...paying for it to rush it. They all want to stop this before it potentially gets worse. It was an impressive group.
 
As a full time PhD research biologist with a 13 person lab working in the bio and Chem defense sector, I sure the hell worry that Ebola will develop properties that increase its persistence ex vivo. The more humans it passes through the more likely something like that can happen.

Mocking that possibility reflects a limited understanding of the potential risks.

Despite the remedial science lessons from the media, this is something we should all be aware of. And pour is correct: medical defense agencies (such as the ones he listed) are very concerned about this possibility.
 
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As a full time PhD research biologist with a 13 person lab working in the bio and Chem defense sector, I sure the hell worry that Ebola will develop properties that increase its persistence ex vivo. The more humans it passes through the more likely something like that can happen.

Mocking that possibility reflects a limited understanding of the potential risks.

Despite the remedial science lessons from the media, this is something we should all be aware of. And pour is correct: medical defense agencies (such as the ones he listed) are very concerned about this possibility.

I hate to read this, but thanks for sharing.
 
"Similarly for Ebola, the virus would have to develop attachments that would allow it to easily attach receptors in the upper respiratory pathway—something that neither it (nor any of its viral cousins) has been known to do in the wild."

Is this a true statement 93? And why do they use the term "in the wild?"

Yes, that is one way the virus could become more infectious- in essence, by increasing the odds that inhaled viral particles could productively infect airway cells. There are other routes that would make the virus more resilient to adverse environmental conditions as well. There are obvious evolutionary advantages to increasing the ability to infect without direct and immediate contact with contaminated fluids.

"in the wild" is probably used for two reasons: (1) something functional similar appears to have happened in the ebola reston incident that was popularized by Ken Preston (I actually have worked with some of the vets involved in that- they are still scared about what could have been); (2) the use of directed evolution in research labs has been shown to confer "airborne" competence. While I doubt anybody has done so with ebola, it would be an obvious objective in a bioweapons lab.

Such mutations are not currently believed to be very probable. But they are not impossible, and the longer this goes on, the more cumulative risk there is.

IOW, don't lose sleep over it. But be aware of the probability and be wary of people that use mental shortcuts , such as "only direct contact" or "not infectious unless symptomatic". Those overlook the gray areas that accumulate around all shortcuts.
 
Oh, and one more thing: I think LK is essentially right. I doubt that anything more than sporadic incidents will occur within the US. But we should prepare for the worst case scenario as best as we can (as our medical defense groups are), because the worst case would have dire effects on civilization. If nothing else, we may be able to save thousands of lives in west Africa...
 
Seriously appreciate your response 93.
 
So this "Reston virus" keeps popping up in random places every 5-6 years?
 
I think so. Since it is not pathogenic (or at least poorly pathogenic) to humans I haven't paid much attention to it following the reston incident. it just serves as a good example of a filovirus that *appears* to be airborne transmissible in a very limited dataset.
 
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The universe is funny. I threw on an episode from season 3 (2010) of Breaking Bad to kill time, and it happened to be the one with the fly in the lab that leads to an ebola discussion between Walt and Jesse.
 
So to put another perspective on the difference between the ability of Ebola to spread in Africa and the ability of it to spread in the western world is a MMWR report from the CDC. The fear mongering and media panic love to overlook the little thing called, it's AFRICA.


Assessment of Ebola Virus Disease, Health Care Infrastructure, and Preparedness — Four Counties, Southeastern Liberia, August 2014


Ebola virus disease (Ebola) is a multisystem disease caused by a virus of the genus Ebolavirus (1,2). In late March 2014, Ebola cases were described in Liberia, with epicenters in Lofa County and later in Montserrado County (3). While information about case burden and health care infrastructure was available for the two epicenters, little information was available about remote counties in southeastern Liberia (Figure 1). Over 9 days, August 6–14, 2014, Ebola case burden, health care infrastructure, and emergency preparedness were assessed in collaboration with the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare in four counties in southeastern Liberia: Grand Gedeh, Grand Kru, River Gee, and Maryland. Data were collected by health care facility visits to three of the four county referral hospitals and by unstructured interviews with county and district health officials, hospital administrators, physicians, nurses, physician assistants, and health educators in all four counties. Local burial practices were discussed with county officials, but no direct observation of burial practices was conducted. Basic information about Ebola surveillance and epidemiology, case investigation, contact tracing, case management, and infection control was provided to local officials.

At the time of the evaluation, no cases of Ebola infection had been reported from any of the four counties. Each county has one referral hospital (100–150 beds) with outlying health centers and 17–24 clinics. Before the epidemic, six physicians served all four counties (range = one to three per county). At the time of the evaluation, only three physicians remained; the others had left Liberia because of the epidemic. In two of four hospitals assessed, nursing staff members were not coming to work or had abandoned facilities; in another hospital, health care providers had not been paid for 3 months but were still providing basic care. Frequently, nursing students, nursing aides, and community health care volunteers were providing basic medical care and responding to obstetric and surgical emergencies.

Supplies of nonsterile gloves and sterile obstetric and surgical gloves were depleted or absent in all four counties. Hand washing stations rarely were available in the facilities assessed, and if available, were typically located only in operating theaters. Hand washing stations in most health care settings consisted of water jugs, and even these were scarce. To compensate, bamboo hand washing stations were constructed for use at entrances to hospitals, county checkpoints, and in towns (Figure 2). Supplies of soap, bleach, or alcohol-based hand gel also were depleted. Rudimentary isolation facilities were present in two counties; neither had water, electricity, or waste disposal facilities. Communication between the county health office and hospitals and clinics relied on cell phones and radios, with intermittent Internet availability. In one county, only six of 19 health facilities had radio or cell phone contact with the health office; the other 13 required site visits by a district health officer. Transportation of specimens and patients was challenging; the counties each had only one functioning ambulance for all medical or specimen transfer, and no air transport was available.

Ebola emergency preparedness plans at the county and hospital level were lacking. Although Ebola task forces had been established in each county, according to reports from the field, the infrastructure and leadership were hampered by limited resources and difficulty communicating with and mobilizing the local communities. In all counties, there was insufficient personal protective equipment to care for patients with Ebola. Health care providers had not received training on the donning and removal of personal protective equipment. No training on case investigation, case management, contact tracing, or safe burial practices had been provided at either the county or hospital level. No Ebola surveillance systems were in place.

After basic training on case definitions and surveillance was provided to local officials, River Gee County health officials reviewed recent deaths and identified a patient with suspected Ebola. On August 3, a pregnant woman (patient 1) died during a spontaneous abortion after leaving Monrovia where she had contact with an infected person at a funeral; she was buried by the community in the week after her death. On August 24, 2014, Maryland County authorities identified a man hiding in a rice truck who had signs and symptoms of Ebola (patient 2). The truck had departed from Fish Town, River Gee County, and was destined for Pleebo, Maryland County. The man, who was reported to have participated in the burial of patient 1, was sent back to Fish Town, where he later was reported to have died of laboratory-confirmed Ebola. This was the first evidence of secondary transmission of Ebola in southeast Liberia.

Although additional Ebola cases have been reported in southeastern Liberia since this assessment was completed, there have been improvements in the level of Ebola preparedness. County health care staff received multiple trainings on surveillance, infection prevention and control practices, and burial practices. County Ebola task force meetings take place regularly, and an Ebola incident management system is in place. Additional ambulances and pickup trucks have been provided to county health teams. Three Ebola treatment units and multiple community care centers are planned for these southeastern counties. Still, obstacles to preventing spread of Ebola remain, and personal protective equipment,* sufficient personnel for effective contact tracing and case management,† efficient patient transport, and regional diagnostic laboratory capabilities are urgently needed. The Ebola disease case burden in southeastern Liberia is still lower than other areas of Liberia, but additional public health actions to strengthen preparedness and response efforts are needed to prevent further disease spread.
 
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The gubmint is too big cut that shit some more lower taxes let the free market kill ebola dumbasses
 

So, seeing as how this is highly unlikely to be a significant outbreak in the US for anyone but the talking heads at MSNBC, FOX and CNN and the folks trying to use it for political points in an election year, it appears we could cut some more from the budget, right?

Or are you indicating that you have evidence that $35 million dollars would have kept that dude off the plane?
 
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http://time.com/3501744/ebola-vaccine-nih/

Francis Collins, the head of the National Institutes of Health, said the agency has been working on Ebola vaccines since 2001. “It’s not like we suddenly woke up and thought, ‘Oh my gosh, we should have something ready here,'” Collins told the Huffington Post. “Frankly, if we had not gone through our 10-year slide in research support, we probably would have had a vaccine in time for this that would’ve gone through clinical trials and would have been ready.”
 
When faced with a crisis, there is only one thing to do. Raise taxes on somebody other than yourself.

No no no. Get the government off your back, is is usually their fault and the free market is designed to take care of anything that should arise. When in doubt, consult the Constitution. It doesn't say anything in there about ebola.
 
The FDA knows how to monkey with ebola. Submit all your treatments to them and pay $100m. It's right there in the Constitution.
 
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