• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

ESPN after Week 1 bowl projections

To state the obvious, it is ridiculous to project bowls after one week. On the other hand, it is good that both guys think we will be a bowl team. Nashville would be a good one for the team and the fans.
 
We are going to need to up our game to go bowling. UNC, Louisville and Duke all looked better than expected during first week games.
 
South Carolina will be lucky to win five games.
 
jamesda3 said:
I agree I thought they were one of the worst teams I seen last weekend
Click to expand...

They also have the toughest schedule in the nation.

The "most winnable" games left on their schedule are:

v. Charleston Southern
at Missouri
v. Kentucky (they haven't beaten UK in five years)
at Tennessee
v. Vanderbilt
v App State

They have to win all of those or pull some upsets to get bowl eligible. Not likely
 
BiffTannen said:
They also have the toughest schedule in the nation.

The "most winnable" games left on their schedule are:

v. Charleston Southern
at Missouri
v. Kentucky (they haven't beaten UK in five years)
at Tennessee
v. Vanderbilt
v App State

They have to win all of those or pull some upsets to get bowl eligible. Not likely
Click to expand...

App st. Rolls them and UNC
 
One bowl projection I saw had UNC playing in two bowls-- same guy picked them in two different bowls! :) I agree I thought USC looked terrible, I doubt they get 6 wins
 
I project S. Carolina will be looking for a new coach in 2 and a half months.
 
Pilchard said:
I project S. Carolina will be looking for a new coach in 2 and a half months.
Click to expand...

That will be a tough lift with a $22 million buyout. AD needs to be hunting for work after giving Muschamp a raise and extension after that debacle against the Hoos in last year's Belk Bowl.
 
The WF-UNC game might turn out to be an elimination game as to which one of those teams goes to a bowl this year.
 
Could be but Wake’s projected wins are likely closer to 7 than 6 right now. We will be a slight favorite over UNC and Duke - perhaps FSU (id say toss up more likely, heavy favorites over Elon and Rice, decent favorites over Louisville, slight dogs to BC and State, decent dogs to VPI and Cuse then big dogs to Clemson. That comes out to closer to 7 - win one of the first three and then one of BC State VPI and we’re in. Win two of the first three and were cruising. Only major glitch would be getting beat by UNC and Louisville. That’d be a hole.
 
Junebug said:
Duke lost 42-3.
Click to expand...

LOL.

Given that Duke lost 59-7 to the Deacs in Durham to close out their regular season, I suppose an argument could be made that losing 42-3 on the road to Alabama demonstrates some level of improvement. One less order of magnitude of shittiness.
 
EflandDeac said:
The WF-UNC game might turn out to be an elimination game as to which one of those teams goes to a bowl this year.
Click to expand...
I would be pretty disappointed if wake finished 2 and 6 in the ACC this year
 
If unc beats Miami they will be favored next week. It’s painful, but let’s hope that happens.
 
ChrisL68 said:
I would be pretty disappointed if wake finished 2 and 6 in the ACC this year
Click to expand...

We play Clemson, Virginia Tech, Syracuse & BC on the road. We will be underdogs in all 4 of those games. According to the current Sagarin ratings we would be slight underdogs at home to NC State & FSU, a 3-point favorite over Duke and 9-10-point favorite over Louisville.

Playing to chalk would be 2-6.
 
Combining advanced metrics paints a better picture though. Duke is 86th in SP (compared to 58th Sagarin), Wake’s position is flipped in SP with UNC from Sagarin (both indicate a close game).

Bottom line is we have 6 or 7 games that will open around 6 points or less either way. Go .500 there and we make another bowl. Get bad bounces and play poorly we’re 5 wins or so. Improve as the year goes on and get good bounces and we can win 8+.

We already got a couple “good bounces” in winning the opener which was a flip and a battle of two really good offenses.
 
EflandDeac said:
We play Clemson, Virginia Tech, Syracuse & BC on the road. We will be underdogs in all 4 of those games. According to the current Sagarin ratings we would be slight underdogs at home to NC State & FSU, a 3-point favorite over Duke and 9-10-point favorite over Louisville.

Playing to chalk would be 2-6.
Click to expand...

Who gives a crap about ratings one week in the system. They are still mostly based on pre-season assumptions. I see no reason why this team should have the worst conference record in the past 4 years.
 
ChrisL68 said:
Who gives a crap about ratings one week in the system. They are still mostly based on pre-season assumptions. I see no reason why this team should have the worst conference record in the past 4 years.
Click to expand...

Generally agree. Preseason ratings have improved as knowledge of what the best predictive metrics are has increased but they’re still not perfect. It’s also an apples to oranges comparison year to year regarding conference record over eight games. Variance is pretty high.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top