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F is for Fascism (Ferguson MO)

MHBDemon said:
Most of the cities you seem to be talking about... most likely have historically high police budgets.
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yea NY highest it's ever been in 2020, 6 billion, more than many countries spend on their militaries, same in LA and Chicago. Is jh arguing that the sheer rhetoric around defunding is causing this spike in crime? Actual defunding hasn't really taken hold yet.
 
I had a long post typed out and lost it, but I read jh's paper from 2015 about the "Ferguson Effect" and it was nothing but anecdotes from police and opinion surveys about police broken down along racial lines

jh has still not shown anything that shows that decrease in police has led to violent crime or, more importantly, it's opposite: that increased police decrease violent crime -- intuitively, those are almost certainly true, but I want to know at what rates to understand if it's indeed worth pumping in billions of dollars into a militarized police force to achieve those rates

and further, he shows no interest in engaging on the myriad factors outside of policing related to violent crime, such as poverty, income inequality, gun laws, segregation, and so on


if your whole argument is that it's simply a matter of policing, then please share some data that shows rates associated with police rate changes -- I believe tilt actually shared something like this months ago
 
pick any country in the world you consider a peer country and I can almost promise you they spend less on police and have a lower murder rate
 
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JuiceCrewAllStar said:
pick any country in the world you consider a peer country and I can almost promise you they spend less on police and have a lower murder rate
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And then, if you are interested in a really strong correlation, look at the police murder rate by country and guns per capita by country.
 
let's get back to making wisecracks about looting and sending social workers to prevent violent crime
 
Let's get back to pretending that burning down a building is protected speech.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
I had a long post typed out and lost it, but I read jh's paper from 2015 about the "Ferguson Effect" and it was nothing but anecdotes from police and opinion surveys about police broken down along racial lines

jh has still not shown anything that shows that decrease in police has led to violent crime or, more importantly, it's opposite: that increased police decrease violent crime -- intuitively, those are almost certainly true, but I want to know at what rates to understand if it's indeed worth pumping in billions of dollars into a militarized police force to achieve those rates

and further, he shows no interest in engaging on the myriad factors outside of policing related to violent crime, such as poverty, income inequality, gun laws, segregation, and so on


if your whole argument is that it's simply a matter of policing, then please share some data that shows rates associated with police rate changes -- I believe tilt actually shared something like this months ago
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My whole argument is that when murder rate is spiking we should have an open mind to causes of that problem, and we should start with the most intuitive preventative measures (instead of limiting our curiosity to those causal factors that wouldn't poorly on the reforms we've been pushing for). This is apparently controversial. I'm not limiting it to a single factor (thank you, straw man), but I'm also not ruling things out categorically out of vanity (hello Tunnels posters).

Violent crime is spiking in areas pushing for police reform. Who do you think that's going to hurt the most?

https://www.startribune.com/minneap...rded 5,422 violent,a more modest 10% increase.


Violent crimes soared by 21% in Minneapolis last year, adding a painful coda to the city's struggles in coping with a deadly pandemic and widespread protests against racial injustice.

The city recorded 5,422 violent crime incidents, including homicides, rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults, according to preliminary year-end Minneapolis police statistics. That is a dramatic jump over the previous five years, which averaged roughly 4,496 such crimes. Property crime saw a more modest 10% increase.

Police officials point to what they see as a revolving door for suspects in some crimes, with arrests followed by quick release, under new rules aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19 in jails. Often they would only be rearrested for the same crime. Others blamed the rise in crime on reductions in certain traffic stops after criticism about racial profiling, and new pursuit guidelines that bar officers from chasing fleeing suspects in all but the most serious cases.

***

In Minneapolis, the number of arrests and traffic stops fell in 2020, continuing a years long decline.

***

Last week, department officials announced that the city's police force, which had 877 officers at the start of last year, was down to 638.

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So the police force is down 30% manning, arrests and traffic stops are down but homicides have spiked to 25 year highs. But at least we aren't going to have any uncomfortable conversations on the Tunnels.
 
so then care to respond to the data on the high police spending and the high murder rate compared to other nations?
 
Amazing that you’ve spent the whole day googling, and still can’t come up with any evidence to support your feelings.
 
and nobody is backing down from uncomfortable conversations

kind of a rich accusation from someone who chose to have a one-way conversation via the rep system for years, the opposite of "an uncomfortable conversation"

people have shared their discomfort with it all for years from our many different perspectives, including the fact that police do in fact often make me feel safe while I hear from members in my community that they do not, that the only time I've ever had a gun in my face was by a police officer because I yelled "we're cruising bitches" out of a window, that I've personally watched police abuse people several times

so I don't really want to hear from you that we're incapable of uncomfortable conversations -- disagreement does not mean disengagement from an issue
 
it also feels pretty disingenuous to see you bring up Chicago, calling it the murder capital of the country, when I live on the South Side of Chicago and have had issues related to my personal safety and my property and have friends who have died by gun violence and know people who have lost family to it many times over

so miss me with your big concern about the city of Chicago and its murder rate -- I don't think it's affecting your trips to Wrigley
 
The Star Tribune article posted mentions that 84 homicides in 2020 is most since 1995, when they had 97.

Minneapolis Police budget by year
1990 - 61 M
2000 - 91 M
2020 - 182 M
 
I think it’s avoiding an uncomfortable conversation to lump everyone’s positions into “reform” and then choosing to argue that “reform” means complete and total abolition
 
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