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Failed Third Party Candidate Gary Johnson

WFFaithful said:
Thanks for the heads up.
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I'm guessing total repeal of the Department of Education, total abolition of the current income tax regime and replacing it with a consumption tax would nudge you into Hillary's loving embrace. Dry hole, libs.
 
jhmd2000 said:
I'm guessing total repeal of the Department of Education, total abolition of the current income tax regime and replacing it with a consumption tax would nudge you into Hillary's loving embrace. Dry hole, libs.
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That's a terrible analogy. I will be voting for Gary Johnson, but Hillary is my second choice.
 
Many Republicans strongly dislike Donald Trump but could never bring themselves to vote for Hillary Clinton. What are they going to do? The Libertarian Party could offer them a real option this year. The ticket will be chosen in Orlando over the Memorial Day weekend, but most likely the presidential nominee will be Gary Johnson, a former two-term Republican governor of New Mexico. His running mate will probably William Weld, a former Republican governor of Massachusetts who won reelection in 1994 by the largest margin in state history. Thus, instead of offering a couple of fringe candidates, as most third parties do, the LP is likely to be offering two mainstream former Republican governors with a total of 14 years' experience running state governments. For mainstream Republicans who cannot stand Trump, this looks like a clear way to send the Republican Party a message.



A Fox News poll taken last week puts the LP candidates at 10%, nearly all of which comes out of Trump's hide. If they actually get 10% of the vote on Election Day, it is virtually inconceivable that Trump could win. The good news for Trump is that third parties always poll better than they actually do on Election Day, and the further out the poll is taken, the better (and less realistic) the result is. Nevertheless, the unique combination of a Republican candidate who is anathema to a sizable chunk of the GOP electorate and an alternative consisting of two mainstream conservative former Republican governors could make a difference. Even if Johnson/Weld got 5% of the actual vote, Trump would be devastated.
No doubt brains are working overtime at Clinton HQ about how to take advantage of this opportunity. All it takes is one deep-pocketed Democratic donor to set up a super PAC and start running ads like this:



Joe: I'm a life-long Republican and I think Trump is a con man but I could never vote for Clinton.
Tom: Yeah, me too. Ever hear of Gary Johnson?
Joe: No.
Tom: He used to be governor of New Mexico, a real solid conservative Republican. He's running as a Libertarian.
Joe: Tell me more!
Tom: His running mate was twice elected governor, too, and is also pretty conservative.
Joe: Are they actually on the ballot or do I have to write them in?
Tom: They are on the ballot in every state.
Joe: You solved my problem. Thank you so much!

The super PAC could be named "Republicans for Johnson" or something like that. It might actually work and there is little Trump could do to stop it if Clinton can find funding. If the LP can get even 5% of the vote in the swing states, Trump has a real problem. (V)
 
Gary Johnson is a double edged sword for Trump. He'll be in the debates if he gets to 15% and that would cut into time that Trump would have to answer pointed questions about policy details. Downside is that Johnson was a popular two term GOP border state Governor who wants nothing to do with a wall. Same thing with Martinez, W, Perry, and Abbott. Pete Wilson lost CA to Latinos for good in 1994 with anti-Latino policies. Jan Brewer's the only former GOP border state Governor nutty enough to pimp the wall for Trump and she's an extremely flawed proxy/surrogate, to put it mildly.
 
Plenty of time for Johnson to get to 15% especially if someone throws some $$$ at them.
 
dot com said:
Big Johnson's SuperPAC: There's no more Bush, but our polls are growing big

confession: I had at least two of these shirts in high school
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The hook for the new Kevin Hart/Dwayne Johnson is - You need a little Hart and a big Johnson.
 
DeacWatcher said:
Plenty of time for Johnson to get to 15% especially if someone throws some $$$ at them.
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2012: Gary Johnson James P. Gray Libertarian 1,275,923 0.99%

He's going to have to pick up the pace to get to 15%.

I realize there is a lot of angst about the two major party candidates, but I would still be shocked if Johnson reached the 3% level. If you are looking for a 3rd party candidate who could possibly reach that 15% level, though, I think that Bernie might be able to do it. :)
 
bobknightfan said:
2012: Gary Johnson James P. Gray Libertarian 1,275,923 0.99%

He's going to have to pick up the pace to get to 15%.

I realize there is a lot of angst about the two major party candidates, but I would still be shocked if Johnson reached the 3% level. If you are looking for a 3rd party candidate who could possibly reach that 15% level, though, I think that Bernie might be able to do it. :)
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I think the odds are against Johnson getting to 15% as well. But then Hillary and Trump weren't the candidates he had to siphon votes from in 2012.
 
Shorty said:
I think the odds are against Johnson getting to 15% as well. But then Hillary and Trump weren't the candidates he had to siphon votes from in 2012.
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Agreed...and I alluded to that in my post. This is what I think could take him from 1% to maybe 3%. Bottom line: Gary Johnson/William Weld aren't going to be a factor in this election. And there will be more upset Bernie supporters defecting from Hillary....whether to Trump or, more likely, to not vote than there will ultimately be regular GOP voters not voting for Trump. Hatred for Hillary runs strong within the Republican Party...as well as among Bernie supporters & many independents.

Hillary had better get Bernie & his supporters under control before she worries about Trump.....because it seems like they are headed in the wrong direction at a faster pace in recent weeks. And the more that Bernie gets them worked up, the harder it is going to be to call off the dogs later.
 
Yeah the 1% from 4 years ago is irrelevant to getting the 15% he needs to get in the debates. He's already been getting 10%+ in polls that he's actually been included in. He just needs to get included more and get his name out. You could make an argument that he polls better than he'll get in the actual election but that doesn't matter for getting into the debates.
 
I feel like you always offer the worst bets on here when it comes to odds. 3:1 doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of what the odds for that to occur would be. Anything is technically possible and its interesting to discuss different scenarios here but that doesn't make them probably.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Well he pulled 10% in a recent poll

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-johnson-hes-pulling-10-vs-trump-and-clinton/
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In more than 1 poll according to e-v.com. If Johnson gets into the debates, this could get interesting. He'd mostly be taking away from Trump, especially if he's getting less than 10%. But if he starts polling in the teens or 20s, then he's starting to take away from Hillary too. If he's viable, and if I get the sense he'd nominate socially moderate judges (he's not anti abortion as I recall - unlike the Pauls), then I'll probably vote for him. Johnson with a Pub house and Dem senate would be a fascinating scenario.

Dot com, I prefer Turgid Johnson's SuperPAC.
 
ThinkingWithMyDeac said:
I feel like you always offer the worst bets on here when it comes to odds. 3:1 doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of what the odds for that to occur would be. Anything is technically possible and its interesting to discuss different scenarios here but that doesn't make them probably.
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Well, I'm not the one running my mouth with crazy statements like Johnson might get 15% of the vote. If I thought Johnson would get 15% of the vote and someone offered me 3 to 1 that he wouldn't even get 10%, I'd jump on it. I am mostly just making the point that nobody really believes he is going to get anything close to 15% and that all of this talk is just hot air.
 
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