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First Charges Filed in Mueller Investigation

Call me crazy but I have a feeling we’re going to see some fucked up stuff come out of the Mueller investigation that will force 2/3rds of the Senate to take action. For anyone paying close attention to the investigation, there are a lot of damning storylines that are out there that haven’t been paid off. For example...foreign intelligence intercepts of Trump’s campaign staff.

I think it’s smart for dems to not run on impeachment. Independent and Democrat intensity is already really high. No need to poke Trump’s base and give them a reason to turn out when your own side is ready to walk over broken glass to get to the polls in November.

Well you're certainly crazy in regards to your hopes from the Mueller investigation. If there was anything like that out there it'd have leaked a long time ago. He seems to be focused on trying to get him on obstruction, which no one will care about. Everyone already knows he's obstructing and no one cares.
 
Well you're certainly crazy in regards to your hopes from the Mueller investigation. If there was anything like that out there it'd have leaked a long time ago. He seems to be focused on trying to get him on obstruction, which no one will care about. Everyone already knows he's obstructing and no one cares.

Even if the Mueller report only confirms what has been leaked or reported in public it will be a big fucking deal. He’ll have Trump on a minimum of conspiracy to break federal campaign finance laws, obstruction of justice, and perjury if Trump is dumb enough to answer questions under oath. That’s not to mention the money laundering and Trump Foundation shit SDNY has turned up.

Trump’s done a masterful job of convincing the rubes that a bunch of crimes that would put him in federal prison for the rest of his life are no big deal
 
Once Trump gets convicted of something he should be exiled to Puerto Rico.
 
Well you're certainly crazy in regards to your hopes from the Mueller investigation. If there was anything like that out there it'd have leaked a long time ago. He seems to be focused on trying to get him on obstruction, which no one will care about. Everyone already knows he's obstructing and no one cares.

This is the truth. The GOP base is not budging on this so Republicans aren’t going to vote to impeach. There’s nothing Mueller can find that would change the math on this. Maybe if there were plenty of swing state senators running close races but that’s not the case.
 
I again say Dems in congress are wasting their time with impeachment solely along partisan lines and instead need to focus on the midterms and 2020. Even if you take the house back and are able to get every Dem there in favor of impeachment, ain't no way you can get 67 votes in the senate to convict, so it's just an exercise in futility. Dem leadership would be smart to come out and say this now - that they won't impeach unless serious crimes have been committed and they believe they have enough Pubs on board to both impeach and convict.

Sure it's an exercise in futility but if the 2018 elections are a referendum on Donald and you win the election, I say you put Donald and Senate (theoretically controlled by your opponent) into a box by forcing them to expend resources as the target and body responsible for holding a trial.
 
Why? If it’s a blue wave, they’ll just say millions of illegals voted or the Russians actually helped the Democrats or something like that. They won’t consider it legitimate.
 
When MSNBC’s Willie Geist asked Bryan to clarify what he meant by the mob “making its move” on Trump, the filmmaker elaborated about all the shady money that started pouring into Trump properties after Trump had been cut off by major banks.


 
Call me crazy but I have a feeling we’re going to see some fucked up stuff come out of the Mueller investigation that will force 2/3rds of the Senate to take action. For anyone paying close attention to the investigation, there are a lot of damning storylines that are out there that haven’t been paid off. For example...foreign intelligence intercepts of Trump’s campaign staff.

I think it’s smart for dems to not run on impeachment. Independent and Democrat intensity is already really high. No need to poke Trump’s base and give them a reason to turn out when your own side is ready to walk over broken glass to get to the polls in November.

I agree on not running on impeachment. And yes, it's fine to impeach Trump once you have proof of crimes more serious than his tweets or actions that amount to obstruction of justice and little else and once you have enough bipartisan support to convict. When house Pubs impeached Clinton over lying about a blow job, they overplayed their hand, and I don't want to see Dems make the same mistake. If, otoh, you have proof that he conspired with an antagonistic foreign country to influence an election and that he's been a serial launderer, which we may well get, then go ahead and impeach.
 
This is the truth. The GOP base is not budging on this so Republicans aren’t going to vote to impeach. There’s nothing Mueller can find that would change the math on this. Maybe if there were plenty of swing state senators running close races but that’s not the case.

I don't necessarily agree. House Pubs aren't going to impeach now, but many establishment and libertarian leaning Pubs despise Trump and will look for the opportunity to go after him once it becomes politically feasible to do so. He's too popular among self identifying Pubs now. But let's say a year or so from now we get a bit of an economic downturn, which many are predicting, and Mueller concludes his report with solid findings of conspiracy and financial crimes. Add to that his approval ratings fall to the 60-70% range among Pubs and 30-35% overall. Then I think you do start seeing some congressional Pubs abandoning the Trump sloop. But that's what I think it's going to take.
 
Sure it's an exercise in futility but if the 2018 elections are a referendum on Donald and you win the election, I say you put Donald and Senate (theoretically controlled by your opponent) into a box by forcing them to expend resources as the target and body responsible for holding a trial.

Exercises in folly and futility may make many Dems feel better about themselves and won't hurt Dem candidates in blue states. But you'd then see a backlash against 2018 Dem winners in reddish-purple districts come 2020. If Luria, Spanberger and Wexton all win in VA 2, 7 and 10 this year, I guarantee you the last thing they want to see is immediate impeachment proceedings.
 
You’re assuming any of that is going to damage his popularity. I don’t think his popularity is going to go down much further. The worst case scenarios are mostly baked in. For GOP approval to drop to 60%, you would need a third of current Republicans who approve of Trump through all this mess to not approve him anymore and stay in the party.

Republicans are creating bulwarks against truth through the Strok conspiracy theory, conservative media, and this QAnon crap. They’re not going to all of a sudden be like “Oh wow that totally corrupt Mueller investigation led by 13 ANGRY DEMOCRATS including Strok and Page confirmed what the FAILING NY Times and Washington Post have been reporting for two years. I don’t like Trump anymore.”

You all are giving way too much credit to people who are already in the tank hard for Trump.

The only scenario I could see is if Republicans get destroyed in November and they think they can rescue the party by 2020 and convince Fox News and the like to go along with an anti-Trump narrative.

I think it’s more likely Trump resigns, gets pardoned by Pence, and becomes a GOP martyr and kingmaker.
 
Yeah I don't think it's going to change many people's minds but if you can force the Senate, held by the other party, to hold a trial of the sitting president, who is also from the other party, you've got to do that. That's wall-to-wall media coverage of the trial whereas the Senate could be attempting to do anything else.

Dems need to get better at playing politics and this is a discrete issue where they can do exactly that.
 
You’re assuming any of that is going to damage his popularity. I don’t think his popularity is going to go down much further. The worst case scenarios are mostly baked in. For GOP approval to drop to 60%, you would need a third of current Republicans who approve of Trump through all this mess to not approve him anymore and stay in the party.

Republicans are creating bulwarks against truth through the Strok conspiracy theory, conservative media, and this QAnon crap. They’re not going to all of a sudden be like “Oh wow that totally corrupt Mueller investigation led by 13 ANGRY DEMOCRATS including Strok and Page confirmed what the FAILING NY Times and Washington Post have been reporting for two years. I don’t like Trump anymore.”

You all are giving way too much credit to people who are already in the tank hard for Trump.

The only scenario I could see is if Republicans get destroyed in November and they think they can rescue the party by 2020 and convince Fox News and the like to go along with an anti-Trump narrative.

I think it’s more likely Trump resigns, gets pardoned by Pence, and becomes a GOP martyr and kingmaker.

I didn't express that 1 of the givens is that Pubs get "destroyed" this Fall, but I was already assuming that. Not quite sure what destroyed means, but chances are already strong that Dems will take back the house - I'm thinking probably 220-225. The senate is really interesting. I think Manchin and Tester are probably safe. In the toss-up states, right now I think Nelson and McCaskill are slight dogs, but I'd slightly favor Sinema, Rosen, Heitkamp, Donnelly and maybe even Bredesen given the early polling there. And don't laugh, but O'Rourke may have a fighters chance. So yes, Pubs losing at least 1 chamber this Fall + Mueller proving more serious crimes + economic downturn could = lower approval ratings and Pub defections in congress. I'm not predicting all of that will happen - just saying it's within the realm of reason.
 
O'Rourke's main hope is to get record turnout in the black and Hispanic communities. If they turnout, he has an outside shot.

Well, assuming we don't get pictures of Ted's dad posing with Lee Harvey Oswald and his rifle.
 
Yeah I don't think it's going to change many people's minds but if you can force the Senate, held by the other party, to hold a trial of the sitting president, who is also from the other party, you've got to do that. That's wall-to-wall media coverage of the trial whereas the Senate could be attempting to do anything else.

Dems need to get better at playing politics and this is a discrete issue where they can do exactly that.

Yeah, go ahead and impeach solely along partisan lines if you want to lose the swing districts in 2020 that you pick up in 2018. What Dems did last November in VA should be instructional. Pubs had a 67-33 advantage in the house, and Dems took 16 of those seats and tied and lost a coin flip in another (in retrospect, we should have flown in Javier Bardem to have performed the ceremonial flip). By far the biggest issue on the minds of VA voters was health insurance, and I don't think Pub pols in Washington realize the amount of damage they did to themselves by not repealing and replacing the ACA last year. Even if they would have screwed over folks with pre-existing conditions, had they come up with something that reduced insurance rates for most folks, I think they would have gotten some credit and would be looking better in the mid-terms. But the combination of doing nothing and the administration actively subverting the ACA and driving prices even further up has folks in the well educated and lily white exurbs pissed off. If you look at where the Dems made pick-ups last year in VA, many of those pick-ups were in VA 2, 7 and 10. We're talking mostly conservative white folks who usually vote Pub but who don't necessarily drink the Trump koolaid and who understand what rising health care costs are doing to their budget. They want low taxes and the health care system to be more stable and cheaper - not a partisan only exercise in impeachment futility.
 
O'Rourke's main hope is to get record turnout in the black and Hispanic communities. If they turnout, he has an outside shot.

Well, assuming we don't get pictures of Ted's dad posing with Lee Harvey Oswald and his rifle.

We'll see, but I doubt that's going to happen. Beto lost the Rio Grande Valley in the primary, which doesn't inspire confidence.
 
That was running against another Dem.

If Beto wins, it's not a blue wave. it will be a tsunami.

He has little chance.
 
Yeah, go ahead and impeach solely along partisan lines if you want to lose the swing districts in 2020 that you pick up in 2018. What Dems did last November in VA should be instructional. Pubs had a 67-33 advantage in the house, and Dems took 16 of those seats and tied and lost a coin flip in another (in retrospect, we should have flown in Javier Bardem to have performed the ceremonial flip). By far the biggest issue on the minds of VA voters was health insurance, and I don't think Pub pols in Washington realize the amount of damage they did to themselves by not repealing and replacing the ACA last year. Even if they would have screwed over folks with pre-existing conditions, had they come up with something that reduced insurance rates for most folks, I think they would have gotten some credit and would be looking better in the mid-terms. But the combination of doing nothing and the administration actively subverting the ACA and driving prices even further up has folks in the well educated and lily white exurbs pissed off. If you look at where the Dems made pick-ups last year in VA, many of those pick-ups were in VA 2, 7 and 10. We're talking mostly conservative white folks who usually vote Pub but who don't necessarily drink the Trump koolaid and who understand what rising health care costs are doing to their budget. They want low taxes and the health care system to be more stable and cheaper - not a partisan only exercise in impeachment futility.

I simply disagree that you would lose swing districts in 2020 by impeaching Donald in 2018.
 
I agree on not running on impeachment. And yes, it's fine to impeach Trump once you have proof of crimes more serious than his tweets or actions that amount to obstruction of justice and little else and once you have enough bipartisan support to convict. When house Pubs impeached Clinton over lying about a blow job, they overplayed their hand, and I don't want to see Dems make the same mistake. If, otoh, you have proof that he conspired with an antagonistic foreign country to influence an election and that he's been a serial launderer, which we may well get, then go ahead and impeach.

Both of those are already public knowledge. The only question is: how rock solid is the proof Mueller and other investigators have collected?

Dems should wait at least until Mueller produces his report to impeach, but would be fools not to after that, both from a political and national security perspective.

I am somewhat hopeful that presenting all of the information neatly outlined in one document , and not having a bunch of people lying to defend the president, might be enough to change some senators minds.
 
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