PhDeac
PM a mod to cement your internet status forever
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2011
- Messages
- 155,529
- Reaction score
- 22,551
That's why point differential matters.
Home-Road Volatility
- Thread starter bullets
- Start date
- Latest activity Latest activity:
That's why point differential matters.
Deacsfan27
Well-known member
Yup -551 in 2 1/2 years in the ACC.
Turd Ferguson
Well-known member
- Joined
- Oct 8, 2011
- Messages
- 6,286
- Reaction score
- 1,677
Yeah but we are always going to be projected to lose by wide margins on the road...for obvious reasons.
PhDeac
PM a mod to cement your internet status forever
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2011
- Messages
- 155,529
- Reaction score
- 22,551
Right. So if we fall below projections calculated with a standard formula, that's a sign of a specific effect unique to Wake.
Deacsfan27
Well-known member
The thing he said that I found interesting was this:
Ken Pomeroy @kenpomeroy
@BSD_RaJohnston Partly explained by bad Wake teams and CU normally has larger home/road splits than most. Rest unexplainable or bad luck.
Indicates he thinks Colorado has the weird effect and Wake has just been bad. I feel like we always perform worse than expected on the road though, even before Coach [Redacted].
Isn't he at all curious as to why Colorado, of all teams, has an unusually large home-away split? Is he really willing to chalk cases like Colorado and Wake up to fluke?
Kinda disappointing, honestly.
Kinda disappointing, honestly.
Deacsfan27
Well-known member
I believe his insinuation was that Colorado has had bad splits even before Jeff [Redacted].
Deacsfan27
Well-known member
He has a luck column but it was started a couple of years ago. Checkin on that now.
Wakeforest22890
Snowpom
Luck will be difficult to discern road v. home, it just shows the biggest aberration between ranking and margin (which basically equates to biggest difference between efficiency numbers/rankings and record). Charlotte for example is 17-4 despite being something like 120th in KenPom. They've won an insane number of close games.
That's fine, but the question still stands.
Deacsfan27
Well-known member
I think his answer was that Jeff [Redacted] was a bad coach. So he is chalking it up to him being a bad coach.
KennyRogersRoast
Well-known member
Altitude is theory behind colorado home/road splits. Just like New Mexico.
PhDeac
PM a mod to cement your internet status forever
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2011
- Messages
- 155,529
- Reaction score
- 22,551
Winner. Great post. Will pos rep later. Makes me wonder about Air Force.
DeacInVermont
Well-known member
Difference here could be that Big 12 and PAC12 teams are from lower elevations, typically. Air Force being in the Mountain West faces other teams from higher elevations.
Why the Deac Not
Frederic Fuckin' Chopin
Sorry, my long-ass, ranting post probably belongs here.
If coaching truly makes a difference, and it can and should, when a team is on the road, then we're getting very little of it. Not that I need to convince anyone here, but having not watched the game live, and for some reason watching it on DVR, I noticed how dreadful shot selection was at that crucial juncture of the game inside of 13 mins when it was only 16-11 UMd. From that point on, we attempted 6 3's and made 1 of them. Only three of them were remotely good looks and we missed all of the "good" open looks. Of course, Chase missed two. CJ missed the other at a time in which it would have helped some when our D was finally generating some extra chances. Travis hit the only one, and while it was a momentum 3, it was a selfish look that did not really come out of the offense. On the other 5 trips we had before the 8 min timeout, MJ turned it twice on bad drives, Cav got his shit packed, DT bulled his way to a layup and I think MJ (or Codi) missed a good look from inside the arc, one of the few.
The bigger point is, why is this team not getting coached up on the road?? They run the offense patiently at home and don't panic when shots don't go down. On the road, the noise and jump the other team has seems to disrupt their concentration and causes them to rush things, which isn't untypical of young teams. However, for a team that has demonstrated the ability to receive and apply coaching and schemes, why does the scheme seem so non-existent on the road?? Their spacing isn't as good, they dribble too much and we rely too heavily on pick and roll screens in which the picker rarely rolls to the bucket. Screens up high on the perimeter are useless unless you have an Ish Smith who can drive past anyone or you shoot the 3 well, which we don't. On the road, we should play a trapping zone and utilize our size in the form of a guy like Rountree. Extend the defense and take the pressure off of Adala and Devin inside. Try to create turns and get out in transition some. Pass the ball more crisply and move without the ball on offense and for the love of God, stop dribbling so damn much!!
Yes, a lot of this is the freshman being freshman, but at this point of the season, after playing relatively well all season long at home, I've got to think the coaching is wanting. Not just within the game and w/r/t substitution patterns, but the scheme going in is flawed. Are Rusty and Walt etc not getting the job done with the scouting and game-planning? Or does it fall completely on Bzz??
What do y'all think? And I apologize for not having read a lot of the threads yet.
If coaching truly makes a difference, and it can and should, when a team is on the road, then we're getting very little of it. Not that I need to convince anyone here, but having not watched the game live, and for some reason watching it on DVR, I noticed how dreadful shot selection was at that crucial juncture of the game inside of 13 mins when it was only 16-11 UMd. From that point on, we attempted 6 3's and made 1 of them. Only three of them were remotely good looks and we missed all of the "good" open looks. Of course, Chase missed two. CJ missed the other at a time in which it would have helped some when our D was finally generating some extra chances. Travis hit the only one, and while it was a momentum 3, it was a selfish look that did not really come out of the offense. On the other 5 trips we had before the 8 min timeout, MJ turned it twice on bad drives, Cav got his shit packed, DT bulled his way to a layup and I think MJ (or Codi) missed a good look from inside the arc, one of the few.
The bigger point is, why is this team not getting coached up on the road?? They run the offense patiently at home and don't panic when shots don't go down. On the road, the noise and jump the other team has seems to disrupt their concentration and causes them to rush things, which isn't untypical of young teams. However, for a team that has demonstrated the ability to receive and apply coaching and schemes, why does the scheme seem so non-existent on the road?? Their spacing isn't as good, they dribble too much and we rely too heavily on pick and roll screens in which the picker rarely rolls to the bucket. Screens up high on the perimeter are useless unless you have an Ish Smith who can drive past anyone or you shoot the 3 well, which we don't. On the road, we should play a trapping zone and utilize our size in the form of a guy like Rountree. Extend the defense and take the pressure off of Adala and Devin inside. Try to create turns and get out in transition some. Pass the ball more crisply and move without the ball on offense and for the love of God, stop dribbling so damn much!!
Yes, a lot of this is the freshman being freshman, but at this point of the season, after playing relatively well all season long at home, I've got to think the coaching is wanting. Not just within the game and w/r/t substitution patterns, but the scheme going in is flawed. Are Rusty and Walt etc not getting the job done with the scouting and game-planning? Or does it fall completely on Bzz??
What do y'all think? And I apologize for not having read a lot of the threads yet.
DeacHead
I could choose a custom title but don't
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2011
- Messages
- 7,210
- Reaction score
- 770
Since this is intended to be a nerd thread, I'll wear my pocket protector, dust off my slide rule and show some data I rustled up.
It seemed to me that we don't just lose on the road, we get our asses handed to us. I wanted to see if raw numbers supported that so I did some digging on all of our road games:
Below shows each opponent's score against us in the first line, then the score against their opponents in the top 200* in the second line. The third line says if we "outperformed" or "underperformed" the opponent's average home result. That is, if they average a 5 point win at home and only beat us by 2, that's an "outperformed". Today, at Maryland, we had an "underperformed".
So, it's almost evenly split between over and under, 4 for over, 3 for under. I actually just want to call it 3 underperform, 2 "as expected" (Duke and VT) and 2 over.
Note - so far none of this is meant to be analytical at all, just purely numbers.
Digging in a little more, the 2 overs included a neighboring creampuff (UNC-G) and a traditional thorn in our side, Richmond. Even in the best of times the Spiders were tough for us and KP has them at 87. I'll grant this as genuinely overperforming.
VT was a gutpunch, but they haven't exactly been too impressive at home this year. They win by an average of 1.5 points and beat us by 1 at the end. With Duke we outperformed by 2, in a blowout, a small number relative to the margin. This game was a typical Duke home win.
The other three... aye yi yi. Clemson averages losing at home by a point and beat us by 16. GT and Maryland are almost even at home and pummelled us both times.
Sooooooo, we all know the road w-l record. Home teams are supposed to win. But it seems we don't just have a home advantage to deal with, there seems to be something extra at work that we're not just losing, we're getting creamed. All this to come to the shocking conclusion: We truly suck on the road**.
By the way, the #/doof bros should tell Ken Pom they deserve a share of the $20 I spent to sub to him tonight. I wouldn't have thought to subscribe to him if not for their frequent references to him.
*Why top 200? Got to draw the line somewhere.
**Small sample size, yeah yeah, I know.
It seemed to me that we don't just lose on the road, we get our asses handed to us. I wanted to see if raw numbers supported that so I did some digging on all of our road games:
- Richmond
- UNC-G
- Duke
- Clemson
- Virginia Tech
- Georgia Tech
- Maryland
Below shows each opponent's score against us in the first line, then the score against their opponents in the top 200* in the second line. The third line says if we "outperformed" or "underperformed" the opponent's average home result. That is, if they average a 5 point win at home and only beat us by 2, that's an "outperformed". Today, at Maryland, we had an "underperformed".
Code:
Margin
Rich 62 WFU 60 2
Rich 75 Top200 66.83 8.17
overperformed
UNC-G 70 WFU 84 -14
UNC-G 78.5 Top200 80 -1.5
overperformed
Duke 80 WFU 62 18
Duke 79.33 Top200 59.11 20.22
overperformed
Clemson 60 WFU 44 16
Clemson 63.33 Top200 64 -0.67
underperformed
VT 66 WFU 65 1
VT 73.67 Top200 72.17 1.5
overperformed
GT 82 WFU 62 20
GT 63.75 Top200 61.75 2
underperformed
Mary 86 WFU 60 26
Mary 66 Top200 65 1
underperformedSo, it's almost evenly split between over and under, 4 for over, 3 for under. I actually just want to call it 3 underperform, 2 "as expected" (Duke and VT) and 2 over.
Note - so far none of this is meant to be analytical at all, just purely numbers.
Digging in a little more, the 2 overs included a neighboring creampuff (UNC-G) and a traditional thorn in our side, Richmond. Even in the best of times the Spiders were tough for us and KP has them at 87. I'll grant this as genuinely overperforming.
VT was a gutpunch, but they haven't exactly been too impressive at home this year. They win by an average of 1.5 points and beat us by 1 at the end. With Duke we outperformed by 2, in a blowout, a small number relative to the margin. This game was a typical Duke home win.
The other three... aye yi yi. Clemson averages losing at home by a point and beat us by 16. GT and Maryland are almost even at home and pummelled us both times.
Sooooooo, we all know the road w-l record. Home teams are supposed to win. But it seems we don't just have a home advantage to deal with, there seems to be something extra at work that we're not just losing, we're getting creamed. All this to come to the shocking conclusion: We truly suck on the road**.
By the way, the #/doof bros should tell Ken Pom they deserve a share of the $20 I spent to sub to him tonight. I wouldn't have thought to subscribe to him if not for their frequent references to him.
*Why top 200? Got to draw the line somewhere.
**Small sample size, yeah yeah, I know.
Last edited: