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Hypothetical Seed Discussion (#8/#9 vs. #10 seed) (NWT)

yeah, he changed his mind on who he thinks will win the MAAC (unless Pitino can find a nice steakhouse for Iona)

So Iona out, St. Peter's in (auto)

Wake Forest out, Wyoming in (at-large)
 
Michigan at 17-14 is out, and is not going to get in over 23-9 Wake.

ETA: UNC beat the shit out of this Michigan team. That should help us.
 
BarcaDeac said:
ok. I haven't paid attention to the autobids, but what would their getting in have to do with pushing us out?
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Good question actually. Iona was the 1 seed and lost to #9 Rider.

Unless Iona gets an at large, which doesn't sound like, not sure why it's not a 1:1 switch. Maybe just general commentary about the changing bracket, i.e. not St Peters in because Wake drops out.
 
deacon14 said:
I mean a team having a 1.5% win probability means they win the about 1 out of ~70 of those games. I don't think teams overcome 17 point deficits against a relatively evenly matched team (such as IU and Michigan) more often than 1 out of ~70 times. If anything, my gut reaction tells me a 98.5% chance is underselling what Michigan's odds were to win that game.
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Yeah I just think it happens more often than that, especially in a sport that is comprised of runs.
 
wufu bufu said:
Good question actually. Iona was the 1 seed and lost to #9 Rider.

Unless Iona gets an at large, which doesn't sound like, not sure why it's not a 1:1 switch. Maybe just general commentary about the changing bracket, i.e. not St Peters in because Wake drops out.
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it is a 1:1

he mentioned 2 teams out and 2 teams in
 
thatguy2016 said:
yeah, he changed his mind on who he thinks will win the MAAC (unless Pitino can find a nice steakhouse for Iona)

So Iona out, St. Peter's in (auto)

Wake Forest out, Wyoming in (at-large)
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Hope UNLV defend their home court today. That should dead any silly Wyoming chatter.
 
DeacDaddy said:
Yeah I just think it happens more often than that, especially in a sport that is comprised of runs.
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Do you really? I feel like anytime a team blows the equivalent of a 17 point lead with 11 minutes to go against an evenly matched team it's pretty newsworthy, suggesting it doesn't happen all that often.

It's a different case entirely if a team like Syracuse had that lead over a team like Duke, and I'd imagine ESPN would have given Cuse less than a 98.5% chance of winning.
 
deacon14 said:
Do you really? I feel like anytime a team blows the equivalent of a 17 point lead with 11 minutes to go against an evenly matched team it's pretty newsworthy, suggesting it doesn't happen all that often.

It's a different case entirely if a team like Syracuse had that lead over a team like Duke, and I'd imagine ESPN would have given Cuse less than a 98.5% chance of winning.
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I think ten minutes to go in a game of two evenly matched teams is too soon to call a 98% chance of victory in the era of three pointers. College players lose focus, crazy stuff happens, shots start to drop, a star player cramps up (ouch), momentum shifts, crowds get into it, etc. I feel like we’ve all seen it a bunch. 17 points is not insurmountable with that much time, as Deacon fans well know. I’m sure 85-90% is more reasonable but 98.5% might as well be 100%, and there are far too many variables to call it that confidently. Just my opinion.
 
no need to mention espns win probability for TAMU with a minute left. :)
 
DeacDaddy said:
but 98.5% might as well be 100%

Just my opinion.
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I mean, your opinion is equating something that happens 1 out of 70 times (98.5% win odds) to something that happens literally never, which is a bad understanding of how stats works.

Your opinion is also claiming that Michigan would blow a 17 point lead 1 out of 8 times (85-90% win odds) which is way way more than that actually happens.
 
DeacDaddy said:
And my point is it’s wrong much more than that when it displays those extremes.
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My point is that you’re thinking about the extremes not the other 98 or 99 run of the mill double digit coast to coast wins that don’t get much attention.
 
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Not sure that Wake deserves to be in, but I know with absolute certainty that Michigan does not. Fuck Michigan and Howard.
 
Phlandrous Fleming with the assist, 3-point play, block, tough contested shot, all in succession trying to keep Florida in it

I think the winner of aTm - UF needs to beat Auburn, at least
 
All the other P6 conferences, you can under .500 and no worries. Wake goes 13-7 and may get shipped back home. Is there a 2000 NIT banner in the Joel?
 
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