I got out when I posted back in November. It's been really hard to watch TSLA do what it do while I sit on my pile of money. I'm still too scared; it's just too fucking hot. Bitcoin has me shook up, too.
Not sure if you are a trader vs. more of a fundamental buy and hold guy. And I'm also not sure of your age. That being said . . .
- BTC seems to me like an easy bet to make. Yes, you could lose some big chunk of your investment. But I cannot think of any asset that is more likely to potentially return you 10x your money over the next 5-6 years. You literally can track how much the supply increases and how much is being bought. And you can roughly track how much is sitting on centralized exchanges vs. being held in "cold storage". That means you can look at data that helps gage and mitigate how speculative a bet you are making. Right now each of PayPal and Grayscale are buying more BTC than are being mined. That's just two buyers. And you have a lot of other big institutions funneling into the asset as a hedge on monetary policy gone wild. This is not 2017. The overall crypto ecosystem has actual use cases that are now gaining significant traction. And BTC is essentially the reserve crypto of the industry.
I would consider waiting for the next correction - say anything 15% or more - and just buy and hold. The biggest risk to me are governments attempting to make it hard to onboard your fiat into BTC. That seems unlikely when you have public companies putting it in their treasury assets now and have groups like Blackrock hiring crypto leaders. The other systemic risk is the possibility the US goes after the stable coin Tether - which would slow things down significantly (but would eventually get plowed over as well). So if you have a longer time horizon . . .
FWIW, analysts at places like JPMorgan, Citi, Guggenheim, ARK, Pantera, etc. are all putting price targets on BTC over he couple of years at anywhere from 100K to 650K. Guggenheim's CIO went on CNBC a few weeks back and said by their own analysis BTC should be worth 400K today. I have no clue if any of those are right, but if any of them end up being correct the current price is a steal if you have some capital you are willing to risk losing in sum total.
- ETH and DOT - these come with more risk. But I think they could come with even more asymmetric reward than BTC given where their market caps are and the higher level of utility they offer. Imagine if you were able to own a share AWS. Not a share in the company, but a small part of the network. And then imagine if you could generate passive income by helping maintain the health of the ecosystem. ETH has a market cap of about 85 billion right now. DOT has a market cap of just 8 billion right now. Again, it could all fall apart. Or you just might be on the very front end of a massive adoption curve that is going to disrupt a lot of current data driven industries. If you can buy about 1000 DOT and stake all of them you will earn around .375 DOT every single day right now. At $8 or so per DOT that's $3 a day. And if the market cap begins to rise . . .
