• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

IT'S ABOUT THAT TIME...The official prediction thread

DeacWatcher said:
Wake to the final four before this happens.....
Click to expand...

If anything, Gallup understates the case. In 2008, Democrats enjoyed a decisive ten-point advantage in partisan affiliation, 39 percent to 29 percent. When undecided voters were pushed to choose a party, the Democrats’ edge grew by another two points, to 54 percent to 42 percent. Yet in the Gallup polls conducted since October 1, the two parties have pulled even, with Republicans actually ahead by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 36 percent to 35 percent. After being pushed to choose a party, likely voters give the Republicans a further boost, resulting in an overall three-point advantage of 49 percent to 46 percent.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332386/parsing-polls-michael-g-franc

This is going to be fun!
 
About 40% of the NC electorate voted in early voting around the state:

"Both sides saw positives from early-vote totals — Democrats with an overall increase in voting by their base and Republicans in narrowing the advantage Democrats had on a percentage basis compared to four years ago, when Obama won North Carolina by just 14,000 votes of 4.3 million votes cast. Polls show the presidential race very close again."

http://www.wral.com/tight-presidential-race-helps-nc-break-early-voting-records/11736441/
 
Sabato came out with his crystal ball today. He said Obama with 290 (getting CO and losing VA), 53 Dem senate and 196 Dem house. Nate is saying Obama with 307 EVs (not tied to specific states) and Dem 52.5 senate.

Last week I had Obama slightly losing the popular vote and winning 281 EVs and 53 Dem senate majority (splitting MT & WI). Still think the senate # is 53, and it seems that the vicissitudes in presidential polling has had little effect on senate #s. But with the recent polling and better news cycles over the past week, I'll go with Obama winning the popular vote by .5% and 294 EVs - wins VA and loses CO. I'm not seeing what Sabato is seeing. Obama's #s have been slightly better in VA than in CO, and 3rd party candidates are more likely to help Obama in VA and hurt him in CO.
 
GOP screwed the pooch on the Senate this time around.
 
Go said:
GOP screwed the pooch on the Senate this time around.
Click to expand...

In fairness, it was much more impressive to do so when you had to be strapped to the roof of the family truckster.
 
Getting back to predictions...

Obama wins, 277 to 261, giving Mitt-mentum some credit, but not enough to turn the states he really needs.
Obama carries Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa
Mitt gets Florida, Virginia, NH, NC and Colorado
Popular vote: Obama 49 to 48.8 Gary Johnson peels off 2%
 
JimBoeheim said:
Getting back to predictions...

Obama wins, 277 to 261, giving Mitt-mentum some credit, but not enough to turn the states he really needs.
Obama carries Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa
Mitt gets Florida, Virginia, NH, NC and Colorado
Popular vote: Obama 49 to 48.8 Gary Johnson peels off 2%
Click to expand...

This is realistic.
 
It looks like you can take NV and WI out of the swing state pool. So if Obama wins Ohio, it's all over. Or VA and IA. Or VA and NH. Or IA and CO. Or CO and VA. Or CO, IA, and NH. Or just FL. Or NC and any of them.

If Romney loses Ohio, however, he has no path to victory.
 
jhmd2000 said:
In fairness, it was much more impressive to do so when you had to be strapped to the roof of the family truckster.
Click to expand...

Disagree. I wrote earlier that the senate polls have been pretty independent of the vicissitudes of the presidential polls this year. I don't disagree that Mitt is a fairly weak candidate and has not provided coattails to Pubs running for the senate. But Obama hasn't provided coattails either to any of the Dem senate candidates.

Mitt will carry MT & ND by double digits, yet those senate races are very close. He'll carry WV by a ton and Manchin will win there just as easily. Nelson will carry FL by a wider margin than Romney will. And he's outperforming Flake significantly in AZ. And do I even need to mention IN & MO? Similarly, Obama is greatly outperforming Berkley in NV, Warren in MA and Murphy in CT. But Tester, Heitkamp, Donnelly, Nelson & McCaskill are outperforming him. I can't think of a single senate race this year where either Obama or Romney are going to have much of any coattail effect.

What is hurting the Pubs in the senate isn't Romney, it's the tea party. In 2010, Michael Castle doesn't lose to Coons like O'Donnell did, and Harry Reid was vulnerable and would most likely have lost if he weren't running against that idiot, Angle. This year, Pubs have likely thrown away IN & MO due to the Rape and Abortion Brothers. Going into 2014 and 2016, they need someone to step forward like Chuck Schumer has for the Dems to strongarm state Pub parties into picking candidates who will have an appeal broader than just to tea baggers.
 
cville deac said:
What is hurting the Pubs in the senate isn't Romney, it's the tea party. In 2010, Michael Castle doesn't lose to Coons like O'Donnell did, and Harry Reid was vulnerable and would most likely have lost if he weren't running against that idiot, Angle. This year, Pubs have likely thrown away IN & MO due to the Rape and Abortion Brothers. Going into 2014 and 2016, they need someone to step forward like Chuck Schumer has for the Dems to strongarm state Pub parties into picking candidates who will have an appeal broader than just to tea baggers.
Click to expand...

Further, it was the Tea Party that crippled candidate Romney in the first place, by making him adopt hard-right position to eke out the GOP primary.
 
my favorite prediction thus far

jim-cramer-obama-pick.jpg
 
My favorite Jim Cramer moment was when Jon Stewart completely destroyed him on The Daily Show.

But yes, if real, 440 is batshite crazy.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top