KenPom 2015-2016: Back on Top: #1 in Luck (1/11)

[ChrisL68]

As of this morning, Wake is #1 out of #326 in luck factor.

 

[Bob Niedbala]

You create your own luck.

 

[Ball State Deac]

As of this morning, Wake is #1 out of #326 in luck factor.

So he created a factor to explain why his factors don't work.

 

[TripleDeacon]

So he created a factor to explain why his factors don't work.

That is exactly how it sounds to me.

 

[Frosty]

So he created a factor to explain why his factors don't work.

So luck is basically the error term in his model. Here's the variation that we can't explain so we'll just call it luck and the model holds up.

 

[Ball State Deac]

Wake is the No. 1 luckiest team in the country but has also dropped to 79th after quality wins against IU, UCLA, and to a lesser extent, @ Bucknell. Wake has done this with a depleted roster and without arguably its best player.

 

[TheIshThatSaved WakeForest]

So he created a factor to explain why his factors don't work.

Have you actually been rj all along?

 

[Ball State Deac]

Have you actually been rj all along?

 

[Deacsfan27]

oh god not this again.

 

[deacvision7]

It's not a perfect model. And there is little to no luck in sports.

 

[Ball State Deac]

It's not a perfect model. And there is little to no luck in sports.

 

[CantStandYa]

It's not a perfect model. And there is little to no luck in sports.

[Insert David Tyree GIF]

 

[421Deac]

Watching 91 for KC in that clip..

 

[Wakeforest22890]

BUT HOW CAN YOU QUANTIFY LUCK?!

 

[Deacsfan27]

It just needs to be renamed.

From KP:

Luck - A measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. It’s a Dean Oliver invention. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky).

 

[TownieDeac]

It's a perfectly fine name for the term. Teams that outperform expectations aren't necessarily lucky, and teams that underperform certainly aren't unlucky, but it's a fine word for what it actually measures most of the time.

 

[Pilchard]

The sample size on the luck factor (7 games) is still pretty small for 2015; too small to have major significance. Also, Richmond scored the final 5 or 6 points to win that game which was close to not appear close (Richmond won by 9). Also, WF beat UMBC by 5. Under the formula, the small margin of victory contributed to the luck factor, but the fact is that UMBC was lucky that the game was close.

 

[dot com]

So he created a factor to explain why his factors don't work.

That's how science works, see: cosmological constant.

 

[Milhouse]

Watching 91 for KC in that clip..

pretty funny

 

[CreamyGoodness]

As of this morning, Wake is #1 out of #326 in luck factor.

We';re Nuber 1!