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KenPom questions Brey's last minute strategy

The advanced numbers on fouling are going to start bearing out some wacky shit as coaches are embracing advanced stats. This year at the MIT Sloan Sports conference a paper said it is often correct for the team ahead and the team behind to intentionally foul.

Just a heads up for my fellow NBA fans for the 2016 tilt between the Rockets and 76ers where they are trading hack-a-fouls for the last six minutes of the 4th quarter.
 
Didn't need much thought. This situation he should have been prepared for, especially since they were still in the 1-and-1. As mentioned in the article, Valvano did it against Houston and there was no 3-point shot in the NCAA then. Not mentioned is that Valvano did it against UNC in OT when State was ahead, partly because there was a 3-pointer in ACC play, and also because Brad Daugherty didn't shoot free throws that well. It helped State stretch the lead. As pointed out, the 20% possibility of winning on defense is mostly by going to OT - OT being the best possible outcome if the other team winds it down. If ND had fouled anyone with 15-20 seconds left, excluding the worst case Offensive Rebound which possibility exists even if KY waits to 6 seconds to shoot, they have the possibilities of Ky not making any points or 1 point or 2 points. Ky will not foul with the lead and probably not with the tie, so the best possible outcome becomes a 3-pointer to win. Big miss by the coach. But I think he was used to Grant hitting 3's as time runs out on the shot clock at about 90% this year.
 
I personally hate intentionally fouling that is never called an intentional foul. Especially when the fouler goes in chopping with both forearms.
 
dot com said:
I personally hate intentionally fouling that is never called an intentional foul. Especially when the fouler goes in chopping with both forearms.
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Or when the coach is screaming "Foul him, foul him!"
 
Of course, all of that analysis is irrelevant if Notre Dame simply went 2 for 1. They got the ball with about 1:10 left in the game. Shoot the ball with :45-:50 left and you ensure that you get a final possession (absent an offensive rebound by Kentucky). Instead, they ran it all the way down and effectively gave Kentucky the final possession. Manage the clock properly in the prior possession and you don't have to worry about fouling.
 
deac29 said:
Shoot the ball with :45-:50 left and you ensure that you get a final possession (absent an offensive rebound by Kentucky). Instead, they ran it all the way down and effectively gave Kentucky the final possession. Manage the clock properly in the prior possession and you don't have to worry about fouling.
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That was my first take when it unfolded.
 
deac29 said:
Of course, all of that analysis is irrelevant if Notre Dame simply went 2 for 1. They got the ball with about 1:10 left in the game. Shoot the ball with :45-:50 left and you ensure that you get a final possession (absent an offensive rebound by Kentucky). Instead, they ran it all the way down and effectively gave Kentucky the final possession. Manage the clock properly in the prior possession and you don't have to worry about fouling.
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doesn't change the fouling math too much. should have done both
 
College teams almost never go two-for-one. I think the coaches are afraid to put the kids in a situation where they have to shoot the ball in 20 seconds. I think they'd rather run the offense and get a good shot than place that artificial time limit on them and have them jack up some crap so they can satisfy the two-for-one requirement. Ming boggling.
 
dot com said:
I personally hate intentionally fouling that is never called an intentional foul. Especially when the fouler goes in chopping with both forearms.
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My guess is that if teams start to employ more of these methods than the already do the NCAA will respond with a more strict view of an intentional foul. No one wants to see a parade of free throws in the last 2:00 of a game.
 
I believe the intentional foul no longer exists in college basketball. Only Flagrant 1 and 2.
 
TBDeac said:
I believe the intentional foul no longer exists in college basketball. Only Flagrant 1 and 2.
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Hasn't stopped all the bros in the student section from crossing their forearms in the air every time an opposing player commits a hard foul.
 
big mistake in my mind was failure of Grant to realize he was double teamed and being pushed to the side line. should have passed to the other 3 point shooters who were spaced and open when he crossed midcourt. Hindsight is always genius.
 
SkinsNDeacs said:
No one wants to see a parade of free throws in the last 2:00 of a game.
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The last 2:00 of a game often lasts way too long with the parade of free throws, official reviews and hoarded timeouts. "Oh, we just hit a 3 to cut it to 8 with 1:45 to go. Let's call timeout, so I can tell my guys to foul!" Kills a lot of the drama, even in really close games.
 
qcdeac said:
The last 2:00 of a game often lasts way too long with the parade of free throws, official reviews and hoarded timeouts. "Oh, we just hit a 3 to cut it to 8 with 1:45 to go. Let's call timeout, so I can tell my guys to foul!" Kills a lot of the drama, even in really close games.
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There are too many stoppages of play in college basketball anyway. Eight media timeouts and up to 10 called timeouts in 40 minutes of game play.
 
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-madness-of-the-last-2-minutes-1427153621

By BRIAN COSTA and ANDREW BEATON
Updated March 24, 2015 9:41 a.m. ET
7 COMMENTS
As the game clock hit the two-minute mark on Sunday night in Columbus, Ohio, the NCAA tournament game between Oklahoma and Dayton appeared just moments away from a dramatic conclusion. Oklahoma led by just four points.

What ensued was a somewhat maddening series of stops and starts familiar only to Manhattan drivers and avid viewers of college basketball: eight fouls, 15 free throws, four time outs and one jump ball. Two minutes of basketball took 16 minutes, 29 seconds.

It is a common complaint this time of year: the last two minutes of college basketball games take too long. But how long does it really take? And why?

To find out, The Wall Street Journal used a stopwatch to break down the last two minutes of all 52 tournament games so far this year. On average, the last two minutes of those games took 9:09 to complete.

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But if the score were close enough to keep you watching, chances are they took even longer than that. When teams were within single digits of each other on the scoreboard, the last two minutes averaged 10:34 in real time.

The flow of the last two minutes varies widely from game to game. It took Robert Morris and North Florida a tournament-high 18:31 to play the last two minutes of their first-round game last Wednesday. On the brisk end, Arizona needed only 2:42 to complete its 21-point, round-of-64 win over Texas Southern.

But on average, viewers spent only around 22% of the last two minutes of games watching actual basketball. Here’s what you saw the rest of the time.

ENLARGE
FOULS
The soundtrack of the last two minutes doesn’t come from the crowd or the pep bands. It comes from the whistles. And nothing causes more of them than fouls.

Offensive fouls. Defensive fouls. Intentional fouls. All-hope-is-lost-but-keep-fouling-anyway fouls. Single-digit games averaged nearly five fouls in the last two minutes.

Each foul halted play for an average of 50 seconds, and it isn’t just free throws that cause the delay. Fouls offer an opportunity for coaches to make substitutions. And if a player fouls out, NCAA rules give teams 20 seconds to find a replacement.

In practice, referees give teams far longer, turning foul-outs into unofficial timeouts. At times, when a player fouled out, nearly a full minute passed before the opposing player so much as arrived at the free-throw line.

The worst foul-a-thons come when one team trails the other by enough to make it worth fouling intentionally to stop the clock, yet not by so much that such a strategy is utterly hopeless. And college basketball teams have an especially loose definition of “hope.”

North Dakota State trailed Gonzaga by 11 points with 16 seconds left in a round-of-64 game Friday, but went ahead and fouled again anyway. The crowd at Seattle’s KeyArena booed.

TIMEOUTS
Teams are allowed one 60-second timeout per game and four 30-second timeouts, only three of which can be carried into the second half. But thanks to automatic television timeouts, teams in need of a timeout rarely need to burn one of their own.

There are eight electronic media timeouts per game, called by referees at four designated play stoppages per half. As a result, coaches can hoard their timeouts in a way that enables them to micromanage the final minutes.

This strategy reached its apex in Saturday’s Notre Dame-Butler game, when the teams combined to call five timeouts in the last two minutes of regulation. The teams combined for the rare Triple Crown of stalling: three consecutive timeouts, all with the game clock stuck at :02.

The five team timeouts plus a media timeout resulted in 10:20 of stoppage, meaning the teams spent about five times as much time huddling as they did playing.

VIDEO REVIEWS
Referees don’t often use instant replay to review calls in the last two minutes. But if you happen to see them walking toward the sideline video monitor, you can probably get up and grab a snack without missing any actual basketball. The seven video reviews in the last two minutes of the first 52 games of the tournament delayed those games by an average of 1:22.

OTHER STOPPAGES
A few other quirks of the final minute delay the end even further. Unlike in the rest of the game, the clock is stopped after made baskets until the ball is inbounded. Trailing teams often inbound the ball by rolling it up the court as far as they can, delaying the restarting of the clock. And close calls sometimes prompt more discussion among referees, such as with the controversial goaltending call that decided UCLA’s victory over Southern Methodist Thursday, which resulted in a 52-second stoppage.

Then there are the usual breaks in play: jump balls, double-dribbles, shot-clock violations, traveling, out-of-bounds calls and so on. It all added up to an extra 39 seconds on average—just another small reason two minutes of basketball can take so much longer than it sounds.
 
But for as bad as it is in the regular season, the NCAA tournament is infinitely worse. Teams have the same five timeouts, except their lengths are reversed: four 60-second timeouts and one 30-second timeout. The first timeout of the first half also becomes a full media TO. Each media timeout lasts considerably longer than the regular season — from about 90-120 seconds up to a maximum of three minutes in the tournament. Halftime is officially 20 minutes, five minutes longer than the regular season, but stretches to 21 or 22 minutes sometimes, which is good because it’s always enlightening to hear Charles Barkley discuss players whose names he only learned that morning. Then come the replay reviews, which seem to be far more frequent in the tournament. It’s unbearable. Strictly based on timeouts and halftime alone, a tournament game can be 15 minutes longer. And that’s without counting the more deliberate play near the end of these games. The last five minutes of the Duke-Utah game took 35 minutes. That isn’t good for anybody.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/ncaa-tournament-games-too-long-timeouts-reviews-length-of-games

Isn't Chris Chase a Deacon?
 
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