Pilchard
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Here's the KP breakdown of the only ACC school that WF has yet to play this season.
2017-8 Season: ND's season can be broken down by how the Irish played with and without their two studs, Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell. With Colson and Farrell in the lineup, ND went 11-3, was ranked in the top 25 and beat Wichita State; ND is 5-9 without Colson. Without both Colson and Matt Farrell (including the two games when Farrell tried to play through injury), ND went 1-6 beating only Cuse and losing to the likes of GT. Since Farrell has returned to the lineup three weeks ago ND is 3-3, including last week's win at BC when Farrell dropped 37 on the Eagles and went a ridiculous 10 for 12 from 3. In his last 6 games, Farrell has shot 63 threes and made 30 of them. On the season, ND is 16-12 (6-9) and #30 in the KP ratings.
Offense: As always, ND's strength is on offense. They are the #6 ACC offensive team, and with Colson out, they live and die with the 3 point shot. 39% of their offense comes from 3s (#2 in the ACC), and only 44% of their offense comes from 2s (#14 in the ACC). ND shoots 37% from 3 in ACC games (#6) and 74% from line (#6). ND also grabs a high percentage of misses (33% offensive rebounding % - #4 in conference). ND plays at a moderate tempo (#12 in the ACC).
Defense: ND is not a great defensive team - #9 in the ACC. They are particularly bad at defending the 3 as ACC teams shoot 40% from deep against the Irish - DFL in the ACC. ND does not force many TOs with their D (16% - #11 in the ACC). ND does not foul a lot #3 in the ACC in fewest FTA per defensive FGA.
Roster: ND starts 6-1 (Farrell), 6-3 (TJ Gibbs), 6-6 (Rex Pflueger - missed the Miami game with a back injury; status for Saturday's game is not known; 6-7 Nikola Djogo started in Pflueger's absense), 6-9 (John Mooney), 6-10 (Martinas Geben). With Colson and possibly Pflueger out, ND plays only seven (freshman swingman DJ Harvey has missed the last 10 games with injury as well - ND has been hammered by injuries this year). Given the Irish's injuries, their two bench players in their last game was 6-7 Austin Torres and 6-8 Elijah Burns. As stated above, ND heavily relies on the 3 point shot. Farrell, Gibbs and Mooney all shoot better than 40% from deep -- all but Geben are threats from deep.
Breakdown: KP projects a 74-72 ND win. This is WF last home game. ND is 2-5 on the ACC road; WF is 3-4 at home in conference. Doral will get his, and WF has the edge inside because of the big man, but the win will likely depend on how well WF defends the 3 (WF's 3 point defense is #9 in conference holding teams to 37% behind the arc), and to the extent that WF can exploit ND's weak 3 point defense. Perhaps, Mitchell Wilbekin will have a big game in his final home appearance. The game is probably meaningless for ACC tourney seeding as the battle for the #13 seed will most likely to depend upon the regular season finale at GT.
2017-8 Season: ND's season can be broken down by how the Irish played with and without their two studs, Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell. With Colson and Farrell in the lineup, ND went 11-3, was ranked in the top 25 and beat Wichita State; ND is 5-9 without Colson. Without both Colson and Matt Farrell (including the two games when Farrell tried to play through injury), ND went 1-6 beating only Cuse and losing to the likes of GT. Since Farrell has returned to the lineup three weeks ago ND is 3-3, including last week's win at BC when Farrell dropped 37 on the Eagles and went a ridiculous 10 for 12 from 3. In his last 6 games, Farrell has shot 63 threes and made 30 of them. On the season, ND is 16-12 (6-9) and #30 in the KP ratings.
Offense: As always, ND's strength is on offense. They are the #6 ACC offensive team, and with Colson out, they live and die with the 3 point shot. 39% of their offense comes from 3s (#2 in the ACC), and only 44% of their offense comes from 2s (#14 in the ACC). ND shoots 37% from 3 in ACC games (#6) and 74% from line (#6). ND also grabs a high percentage of misses (33% offensive rebounding % - #4 in conference). ND plays at a moderate tempo (#12 in the ACC).
Defense: ND is not a great defensive team - #9 in the ACC. They are particularly bad at defending the 3 as ACC teams shoot 40% from deep against the Irish - DFL in the ACC. ND does not force many TOs with their D (16% - #11 in the ACC). ND does not foul a lot #3 in the ACC in fewest FTA per defensive FGA.
Roster: ND starts 6-1 (Farrell), 6-3 (TJ Gibbs), 6-6 (Rex Pflueger - missed the Miami game with a back injury; status for Saturday's game is not known; 6-7 Nikola Djogo started in Pflueger's absense), 6-9 (John Mooney), 6-10 (Martinas Geben). With Colson and possibly Pflueger out, ND plays only seven (freshman swingman DJ Harvey has missed the last 10 games with injury as well - ND has been hammered by injuries this year). Given the Irish's injuries, their two bench players in their last game was 6-7 Austin Torres and 6-8 Elijah Burns. As stated above, ND heavily relies on the 3 point shot. Farrell, Gibbs and Mooney all shoot better than 40% from deep -- all but Geben are threats from deep.
Breakdown: KP projects a 74-72 ND win. This is WF last home game. ND is 2-5 on the ACC road; WF is 3-4 at home in conference. Doral will get his, and WF has the edge inside because of the big man, but the win will likely depend on how well WF defends the 3 (WF's 3 point defense is #9 in conference holding teams to 37% behind the arc), and to the extent that WF can exploit ND's weak 3 point defense. Perhaps, Mitchell Wilbekin will have a big game in his final home appearance. The game is probably meaningless for ACC tourney seeding as the battle for the #13 seed will most likely to depend upon the regular season finale at GT.
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