Pilchard
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Our banged up Deacs travel to the heart of the ACC... South Bend, Indiana... to challenge Mike Brey's Fighting Irish squad. Have always liked Mike Brey, but looks to me like he is on auto-pilot right now as this will now be the third year in a row without an NCAA appearance for the Irish, and it doesn't look like that trend is changing anytime soon with 4 senior starters. Here is the skinny on the Irish:
This season: ND is less than mediocre (FWIW, when the season started, just could not understand why so many projected ND to be an NCAA team, they were 14-19 last year and added ZERO incoming freshman; they were terrible and now are ordinary at best). The Irish are 11-8 (2-6), and they have beaten essentially nobody. They have two top 100 wins (WF has 3): #49 Cuse on the road (by 1) and #84 GT on the road by 4. The Irish have managed to lose all 3 ACC of their home games (#164 BC, #9 L'ville and #49 Cuse). ND's best home win was by 2 in OT over #123 Toledo. Impressive. If that resume sounds underwhelming, it is. FWIW, ND is currently on a 3-14 run (yes, worse than WF; worse than BC) in ACC games going back to February 16 of last year (which is relevant because this is the same Irish team). That poor stretch of 3 wins out of 17 ACC games includes a 75-68 loss at WF last season (Chill had 20 - was 5 for 7 from 3; TJ Gibbs had 23 for ND).
ACC offensive and defensive trends for the Irish: Notre Dame can score and can be scored upon. The Irish are #2 in the ACC on offense, but #14 on defense. On offense, they don't turn the ball over (#1 in TO%), and are very dependent on the 3 point shot (39% of their offense comes from 3 pointers #2 in the ACC). They also shoot FTs well 74% (#4). The Irish are a mess on defense. Other than not fouling much (a key for WF's offense), ND struggles in all areas. The Irish give up an effective FG% of 54% (#14), and are DFL in the conference in 3 point defense (opponents are hitting 43% from behind the arc against ND).
The lineup: The Irish are tall (#16 in the country in average height), slow, experienced (#1 in the ACC in experience), and play a short rotation (#13 in the ACC in bench minutes). In last Saturday's loss at FSU, ND played only 7, starting: 6-3 Prentiss Hubb, 6-3 TJ Gibbs, 6-6 Rex Pflueger, 6-9 John Mooney (who can forget the Mooney cam?) and 6-11 Juwan Durham (UCONN Transfer). All of the starters, except Hubb, are seniors. Off the bench the Irish played 6-6 Dane Goodwin and 6-10 Nate Laszewski. Everyone except Durham shoots the 3. Gibbs (40%) and Goodwin (42%) are the Irish most reliable threats from deep. The plodding Mooney is ND's leading scorer; he has hit double figures in every game, but 1.
The bottom line: KP projects a 79-71 ND win. If WF was healthy, would like the Deacs' chances. ND either loses or plays close (over its last 33 ACC games, ND has won only ONE conference game by double digits). If Chill and Chaundee remain out, got to think even this ND team would have their way with the Deacs. The key for WF will be defending the 3 point line, and taking advantage of ND's slow-footed defense. ND will do enough to eke out a win.
This season: ND is less than mediocre (FWIW, when the season started, just could not understand why so many projected ND to be an NCAA team, they were 14-19 last year and added ZERO incoming freshman; they were terrible and now are ordinary at best). The Irish are 11-8 (2-6), and they have beaten essentially nobody. They have two top 100 wins (WF has 3): #49 Cuse on the road (by 1) and #84 GT on the road by 4. The Irish have managed to lose all 3 ACC of their home games (#164 BC, #9 L'ville and #49 Cuse). ND's best home win was by 2 in OT over #123 Toledo. Impressive. If that resume sounds underwhelming, it is. FWIW, ND is currently on a 3-14 run (yes, worse than WF; worse than BC) in ACC games going back to February 16 of last year (which is relevant because this is the same Irish team). That poor stretch of 3 wins out of 17 ACC games includes a 75-68 loss at WF last season (Chill had 20 - was 5 for 7 from 3; TJ Gibbs had 23 for ND).
ACC offensive and defensive trends for the Irish: Notre Dame can score and can be scored upon. The Irish are #2 in the ACC on offense, but #14 on defense. On offense, they don't turn the ball over (#1 in TO%), and are very dependent on the 3 point shot (39% of their offense comes from 3 pointers #2 in the ACC). They also shoot FTs well 74% (#4). The Irish are a mess on defense. Other than not fouling much (a key for WF's offense), ND struggles in all areas. The Irish give up an effective FG% of 54% (#14), and are DFL in the conference in 3 point defense (opponents are hitting 43% from behind the arc against ND).
The lineup: The Irish are tall (#16 in the country in average height), slow, experienced (#1 in the ACC in experience), and play a short rotation (#13 in the ACC in bench minutes). In last Saturday's loss at FSU, ND played only 7, starting: 6-3 Prentiss Hubb, 6-3 TJ Gibbs, 6-6 Rex Pflueger, 6-9 John Mooney (who can forget the Mooney cam?) and 6-11 Juwan Durham (UCONN Transfer). All of the starters, except Hubb, are seniors. Off the bench the Irish played 6-6 Dane Goodwin and 6-10 Nate Laszewski. Everyone except Durham shoots the 3. Gibbs (40%) and Goodwin (42%) are the Irish most reliable threats from deep. The plodding Mooney is ND's leading scorer; he has hit double figures in every game, but 1.
The bottom line: KP projects a 79-71 ND win. If WF was healthy, would like the Deacs' chances. ND either loses or plays close (over its last 33 ACC games, ND has won only ONE conference game by double digits). If Chill and Chaundee remain out, got to think even this ND team would have their way with the Deacs. The key for WF will be defending the 3 point line, and taking advantage of ND's slow-footed defense. ND will do enough to eke out a win.
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