Pilchard
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Our apparently boosted and COVID resistant Deacs (except for Jake who is back and dunking on everyone at practice) play the COVID ravaged, but apparently semi-recovered L'ville Cardinals on Wednesday. Here is a brief summary of the Cards (because the game could be forfeited, but then just postponed and then only to be canceled -- at any time):
2021-22 Cardinals: Fun off-season for L'ville. In June, former Cards assistant Dino Gaudio pled guilty to trying to extort current Cards HC Chris Mack. After Mack advised Gaudio that he wouldn't be retained as an assistant, Gaudio's brilliant scheme for a money grab was to threaten to go public with his knowledge of L'ville NCAA violations unless Mack persuaded L'ville to pay a lump sum buyout to Gaudio. Mack recorded Gaudio's threats and turned them over to the the local prosecutor. The upshot was Gaudio pled guilty to extortion, received probation and had to pay a fine -- and he didn't get any buy-out cash. Damn, it seemed like such a solid plan at the time... Also, Mack was suspended to start the season.
With three starters new to the L'ville program, new assistants, a suspended coach, and now a COVID outbreak, L'ville has had less than a perfect start to the season. On the court, the Cards are 7-4 against a challenging schedule. L'ville has top 100 wins over: #42 Miss. State, #49 Maryland. The Cards also have an ACC win over #113 NC State. L'ville fell against #119 Furman in OT, #17 Michigan State by 9, #92 DePaul by 7 and #111 W. Kentucky by 10. L'ville did not play its annual game against KY because of COVID issues
The metrics reveal that L'ville is poor offensive team (#121), but an elite defensive team (#20). On offense, L'ville turns it over (#217 in TO%), doesn't get to the line (#285 in FTA per FGA) and despite relying on the 3 pointer, the Cards miss a lot of those shots (#277 in 3 PT% - 30%). Defensively, L'ville has kept teams off the offensive glass (#44 in defensive rebound %), defended the paint (#22 in 2 PT FG% defense - 44%) and the three (#65 in 3 point defensive %- 30%). Like the Deacs, the Cards play up tempo (#21 in average length of an offensive possession), but unlike the Deacs, the Cards rely on their bench (#35 in bench minutes; WF is #277).
The roster:
L'ville hasn't played since a December 18 loss at WKU. That day, the Cards started:
G 5-11 Sr. Jarrod West: Marshall transfer; 4 year starter; highly touted, but has under-performed. Has struggled with his shot (29% from 3; 41% last year); leads team in assists and steals; high game on the season is 10 points.
G 6-3 Sr. Noah Locke: Florida transfer; 4 year starter; also has under-performed. Has struggled with his shot (31% from 3; 40% last year; 43% in 2020); 36% from 2; only 8 FT attempts; O rating of 88 (averaged 114 at Florida); high volume shooter -- took 13 threes in loss to WKU
G/F 6-5 So. Dre Davis: 19% from 3 on the season; leads team in offensive rebound %; scored only 2 points last time out
F 6-7 Fr. Matt Cross: Miami(FL) transfer; played well recently; double figures in his last 4 games (34% from 3)
C 6-8 So. Jae'Lyn Withers: not a scorer (5 ppg); 2nd leading rebounder and shot blocker; 230 pounds; 24% from 3
Bench:
C 6-11 Malik Williams Sr.: often injured; played less than a minute last time out; missed all but 3 games last year; when he plays, he can be an inside force; leads the Cards in boards and blocks; 66% from 2;
G 6-1 Mason Faulkner Sr.: Northern KY and WCU transfer; can shoot the 3 38%; WCU's leading scorer last year; coming off back to back 12 point games
G 6-3 El Ellis Jr.: JUCO transfer from Durham; 38% form 3; can score in bunches; scored 22 at Michigan State
F 6-7 Samuel Williamson: 5 ppg; not a threat from 3; strong rebounder
F/C 6-10 Roosevelt Wheeler Fr.: coming off career high 8 point game at WKY; scored 25 points on the season, but 14 over the last two games
The projection: KP projects a 73-68 L'ville win in 72 possessions. The Cards board indicates that while the team has returned to practice, some players are still out. Speculation is on Matt Cross and Dre Davis, but who knows at this point? Based upon last year's results, teams generally regressed a couple of points after a COVID pause. This pause wasn't super-long as L'ville last game was a day after WF's last game, but it sounded like the Cardinals program was in complete shutdown mode for a week+, while Forbes has kept the Deacs active. Without the COVID issues, would lean to WF if the Deacs were getting 5 or more. WF is getting LaRavia back and from limited reports he is in top form. With LaRavia rejoining the team, the Deacs get some depth back and become much tougher to guard. This is about as good of a spot as WF could expect as L'ville hasn't been practicing, will likely be missing some pieces and will be trying to get their conditioning back. Like any points WF is getting, and think the Deacs have a solid chance at the outright win (unless of course 10 minutes from tip we get a tweet that Alondes, Davien and Walton are all not uniform).
2021-22 Cardinals: Fun off-season for L'ville. In June, former Cards assistant Dino Gaudio pled guilty to trying to extort current Cards HC Chris Mack. After Mack advised Gaudio that he wouldn't be retained as an assistant, Gaudio's brilliant scheme for a money grab was to threaten to go public with his knowledge of L'ville NCAA violations unless Mack persuaded L'ville to pay a lump sum buyout to Gaudio. Mack recorded Gaudio's threats and turned them over to the the local prosecutor. The upshot was Gaudio pled guilty to extortion, received probation and had to pay a fine -- and he didn't get any buy-out cash. Damn, it seemed like such a solid plan at the time... Also, Mack was suspended to start the season.
With three starters new to the L'ville program, new assistants, a suspended coach, and now a COVID outbreak, L'ville has had less than a perfect start to the season. On the court, the Cards are 7-4 against a challenging schedule. L'ville has top 100 wins over: #42 Miss. State, #49 Maryland. The Cards also have an ACC win over #113 NC State. L'ville fell against #119 Furman in OT, #17 Michigan State by 9, #92 DePaul by 7 and #111 W. Kentucky by 10. L'ville did not play its annual game against KY because of COVID issues
The metrics reveal that L'ville is poor offensive team (#121), but an elite defensive team (#20). On offense, L'ville turns it over (#217 in TO%), doesn't get to the line (#285 in FTA per FGA) and despite relying on the 3 pointer, the Cards miss a lot of those shots (#277 in 3 PT% - 30%). Defensively, L'ville has kept teams off the offensive glass (#44 in defensive rebound %), defended the paint (#22 in 2 PT FG% defense - 44%) and the three (#65 in 3 point defensive %- 30%). Like the Deacs, the Cards play up tempo (#21 in average length of an offensive possession), but unlike the Deacs, the Cards rely on their bench (#35 in bench minutes; WF is #277).
The roster:
L'ville hasn't played since a December 18 loss at WKU. That day, the Cards started:
G 5-11 Sr. Jarrod West: Marshall transfer; 4 year starter; highly touted, but has under-performed. Has struggled with his shot (29% from 3; 41% last year); leads team in assists and steals; high game on the season is 10 points.
G 6-3 Sr. Noah Locke: Florida transfer; 4 year starter; also has under-performed. Has struggled with his shot (31% from 3; 40% last year; 43% in 2020); 36% from 2; only 8 FT attempts; O rating of 88 (averaged 114 at Florida); high volume shooter -- took 13 threes in loss to WKU
G/F 6-5 So. Dre Davis: 19% from 3 on the season; leads team in offensive rebound %; scored only 2 points last time out
F 6-7 Fr. Matt Cross: Miami(FL) transfer; played well recently; double figures in his last 4 games (34% from 3)
C 6-8 So. Jae'Lyn Withers: not a scorer (5 ppg); 2nd leading rebounder and shot blocker; 230 pounds; 24% from 3
Bench:
C 6-11 Malik Williams Sr.: often injured; played less than a minute last time out; missed all but 3 games last year; when he plays, he can be an inside force; leads the Cards in boards and blocks; 66% from 2;
G 6-1 Mason Faulkner Sr.: Northern KY and WCU transfer; can shoot the 3 38%; WCU's leading scorer last year; coming off back to back 12 point games
G 6-3 El Ellis Jr.: JUCO transfer from Durham; 38% form 3; can score in bunches; scored 22 at Michigan State
F 6-7 Samuel Williamson: 5 ppg; not a threat from 3; strong rebounder
F/C 6-10 Roosevelt Wheeler Fr.: coming off career high 8 point game at WKY; scored 25 points on the season, but 14 over the last two games
The projection: KP projects a 73-68 L'ville win in 72 possessions. The Cards board indicates that while the team has returned to practice, some players are still out. Speculation is on Matt Cross and Dre Davis, but who knows at this point? Based upon last year's results, teams generally regressed a couple of points after a COVID pause. This pause wasn't super-long as L'ville last game was a day after WF's last game, but it sounded like the Cardinals program was in complete shutdown mode for a week+, while Forbes has kept the Deacs active. Without the COVID issues, would lean to WF if the Deacs were getting 5 or more. WF is getting LaRavia back and from limited reports he is in top form. With LaRavia rejoining the team, the Deacs get some depth back and become much tougher to guard. This is about as good of a spot as WF could expect as L'ville hasn't been practicing, will likely be missing some pieces and will be trying to get their conditioning back. Like any points WF is getting, and think the Deacs have a solid chance at the outright win (unless of course 10 minutes from tip we get a tweet that Alondes, Davien and Walton are all not uniform).
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