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MBB Game 14: Miami Hurricanes @ WF - 2:15 Saturday - CW Network

Pilchard

Pilchard

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The Deacs make their CW Network MBB debut this Saturday against the Canes. Here is a preview of the visiting team:

Miami 11-2 (2-0) #45: The Canes boosted their NCAAT prospects with a decisive 95-82 win over #24 Clemson last night, and this impressive win came despite the absence of Miami's #2 scorer Wooga Poplar (16 ppg) with an ankle injury. Even with Miami's solid record, until last night, the Canes season has been disappointing as they fell out of the top 25 as a result of UM's 2-2 record against top 100 opponents -- Miami beat #85 UGA and #75 K State, while losing to #17 KY (by 22) and #22 Colorado (by 17). The beat-down at KY was Miami's only true road game to date.

Saturday's game is particularly big as KP currently projects Miami and WF to tie for 4th in the ACC at 12-8. This is the only WF/Miami meeting this season; so, the winner holds the tiebreaker for ACCT seeding (potentially a double bye), and the winner grabs a quality win to build on each team's NCAAT argument.

Here is the analytical snap shot for these teams:

Miami Offense ---------------- WF Defense
Adj. Eff: 116.5 #19 ------------ 100 #81
Eff. FG%: 59% #6 ------------ 48 #82
TO%: 18 #183 ----------------- 18 #139
Off Reb. %: 31 #132 --------- 29 #167
3 PT%: 42 #3 ----------------- 32 #136
2 PT%: 56 #22 ---------------- 47 #78

WF Offense ------------------ Miami Defense
Adj Eff: 115.3 #27 ----------- 102 #124
Eff. FG%: 56 #29 ------------- 48 #95
TO%: 15 #39 ----------------- 19 #127
Off. Reb.% 27 #259 --------- 28 #113
3 PT% 38 #27 ---------------- 27 #9
2 PT% 55 #51 ---------------- 53 #284

Neither team plays an extended bench, and with Poplar out, Miami's bench was non-existent as the Canes 5 starters scored all 95 UM points against Clemson yesterday. Reflected by Miami's poor 2 point defense numbers, Miami plays small (#151 in average height).

Roster:

Against Clemson, Miami started:

6-0 4th year Nigel Pack: 13 ppg, 2nd on team in assists, 45% from three, led Miami in scoring against Clemson with 25; missed previous 2 games with an injury
6-2 3rd year Bensley Joseph: 9 pgg, assist leader, 43% from three, double figures the last three games
6-7 3rd year Matthew Cleveland: FSU transfer, 15 ppg, 23 against Clemson 43% from three, 124 O rating
6-8 1st year Kyshawn George: from Switzerland, started last three due to injury and scored in double figures in each game, 41% from three
6-7 5h year Norchad Omier: Ark State transfer, leads in scoring (18 ppg) and boards (10), shooting the three for first time in his career 35% from three

The only other significant roster piece is the injured 3rd year player 6-5 Wooga Poplar: 16 ppg, 50% from three, 118 O rating, was expected to play last night and was a last minute scratch after injuring his ankle on December 29. Would guess he is ready to play on Saturday with two more days of rest.

Projection:

KP 82-78 WF
Torvik 80-79 WF

If you like offensive basketball, this game will be fun. Over the past couple of years Miami has won with offense, and this may be the Canes best offensive team. They have 5 elite shooters (Poplar, Pack, Joseph, Cleveland and George) all of whom shoot better than 40% from three. This forces opposing teams to guard the perimeter which opens the lane for Omier, who is shooting 69% from two. Just a really hard team to guard. Every team has the same defensive gameplan against Miami -- take away the three - and it's obviously easier said than done, but it's not a coincidence that Miami's two losses came when the Canes had their worst shooting % from three (26% against KY) and made their fewest number of threes (6 against Colorado). The Deacs defense will need to stay diligent outside the arc. Defensively, WF should have their way with Miami particularly inside. Miami's interior defense is weak, and WF is bigger, and everyone on the court for WF can take the ball to the basket.

WF's offense has taken off since Reid entered the line up averaging 87 ppg over the last 4. Last time at the Joel, WF scored 86 against a VT team that is far better defensively than Miami and the Canes play at a much faster tempo than VT. Miami averages 15.5 seconds per offensive possession which is #26 in the country and second fastest in the ACC. If Poplar is back (and I expect him to be) would look to the over (total should be around 160) and if the line is 4 or less, I would lean WF, but Miami is such a good shooting team that they can literally beat anyone when they are feeling it from deep. Will be a great watch.
 
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Want to go up but don’t want to deal with icy roads. Should be a great atmosphere
 
I'll be there with son and his fiancee unless the weather is far worse than currently anticipated.

I know I'm scarred by years as a Deacon fan, but this feels like that point in the season where I start to BELIEVE (channeling my inner Ted Lasso) and the team comes out and plays a crappy game. I am extremely hopeful that Saturday is not that day.
 
The key is to hold Miami under 80 points.

If this team plays with the same defensive intensity as it did in the 1st half against VPI or 2nd half against BC that's more than doable.
 
Gotta win this one at home, it's our only crack at Miami this season
 
Looking forward to a Wake game for the first time in years.
 
does anyone ever keep track of KP's end of year projections at the start of the year and how they end up? seems like they always have us as .500 or below in the ACC and hey look we're projected for much more now
 
I think this one's gonna be an exciting game and will probably be close whichever way it goes

I am fully prepared to lose multiple years of my life on saturday
 
If their game last night is any indication, this is going to be a very difficult matchup. I can easily see Miami finishing the year top 3 in the ACC. We're going to need to use our size and elite quickness to get easy buckets and draw fouls, and hope they don't have a good day from 3. Home court advantage is huge. Deacs by 2.
 
Biggest game of the season so far, almost unquestionably. Could be huge for ACC seeding and is going to be one of a select few chances at a potential Q1 home win. We get Miami once and Clemson once, both at home, and going 0-2 in those games would be a big problem.
 
I think we match up better against Clemson. I'm very excited for this game but trying to lower my expectations.
 
BarcaDeac said:
does anyone ever keep track of KP's end of year projections at the start of the year and how they end up? seems like they always have us as .500 or below in the ACC and hey look we're projected for much more now
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In all seriousness, how would you expect Kenpom to be able to predict that Alondes Williams, Jake Laravia, Tyree Appleby, and Hunter Sallis would go from relatively unheralded transfers to all-ACC caliber players?

Just like with football preseason polls, what is predicted in preseason of college basketball is pretty meaningless.
 
well after Williams (ACC POY), Laravia (1st rounder), and Appleby (AP ACC POY), I'd think high odds a 5-star former Gonzaga recruit would thrive under Forbes
 
OldGoldBeard said:
That 2022 home loss was a backbreaker. Need to get revenge here.
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Yea, that one still hurts.

This one really worries me. Miami has torched us the last few years and I fear their current unranked status belies how talented they are, especially on offense.
 
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