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MBB Game 14: Miami Hurricanes @ WF - 2:15 Saturday - CW Network

BarcaDeac said:
well after Williams (ACC POY), Laravia (1st rounder), and Appleby (AP ACC POY), I'd think high odds a 5-star former Gonzaga recruit would thrive under Forbes
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I agree with you, but I don't know how reasonable it is to expect a projection system to have this level of nuance for every team in the preseason. Especially when the preseason projections don't particularly matter anyways (except to gamblers I guess).
 
deacon14 said:
I agree with you, but I don't know how reasonable it is to expect a projection system to have this level of nuance for every team in the preseason. Especially when the preseason projections don't particularly matter anyways (except to gamblers I guess).
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Another point of the #EYETEST
 
KP adjusts his ratings for each team before each season.

He does not disclose how the ratings are adjusted for each team, but for transfers, the adjustments are based on projecting their 2024 numbers based on their production from previous schools. Boopie played 4 games last year for an awful CMU team; Sallis and Reid were far down the Gonzaga bench; so, he's (or anyone else projecting WF) not going to wildly boost WF projected record based on those three coming in (and no one knew if Reid would be eligible before the season) and the addition of two frosh recruits not in the top 100.

KP's updated projections heading into a season have some value, but if you really want to dig into a team, you can't be valuing 360 other teams at the same time. KP's value comes with the objective data that he uses as the season goes on. After about 10 games for each team, all the numbers are based on what teams have done (or not done) on the court this season; all priors and subjective judgments are gone. Right now, the best team in the country is Houston, and the only team that is close is Purdue.

That's when the analytics reveal what a team has done and what it may do for the rest of the season.
 
deacon14 said:
I agree with you, but I don't know how reasonable it is to expect a projection system to have this level of nuance for every team in the preseason. Especially when the preseason projections don't particularly matter anyways (except to gamblers I guess).
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so why have it to begin with, or just turn it on toward the middle/end of the season

"we have no idea who these players are therefore...uhhh...Wake will finish 11th in the ACC"
 
BarcaDeac said:
so why have it to begin with, or just turn it on toward the middle/end of the season

"we have no idea who these players are therefore...uhhh...Wake will finish 11th in the ACC"
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Because people should be smart enough to understand the variance in pre-season predictions. Who even knew if Reid would be eligible for WF? Who knew if Boopie would be 100% after missing 4 months of last season with injury.

Take the ratings from the experts and then, apply your own adjustment based upon knowledge that you have and they don't. That's a far better answer than just throwing everything out.
 
Miami has some soft spots. They have been very good at home, but their OOC schedule was weaker than ours. They got their doors blown off against the two best teams they did play - Kentucky and Colorado. Both were away from home.

They lost by 20+ twice already, and the Deacs have yet to lose by more than seven points. And that was before Reid was starting.

Their 2PT defensive percentage is really bad. Reid and Carr should have a lot of scoring opportunities in the paint.
 
BarcaDeac said:
so why have it to begin with, or just turn it on toward the middle/end of the season

"we have no idea who these players are therefore...uhhh...Wake will finish 11th in the ACC"
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I don't think that's at all what is happening. Presumably Kenpom has evaluated the average performance increase/decrease from their previous school to their new school for transfers, and uses that to predict how the new team will do with the transfers. There's a reason why Forbes is viewed as one of the best at the transfer portal right now, because the average transfer doesn't improve anywhere near as much as the recent Wake guys have.

And as Pilchard said, all of the preseason weighting is gone by midseason, so it genuinely does not matter in terms of what we care about, which is having a good NCAAT resume on Selection Sunday.
 
Pack and Joseph average over 20ppg and in their two losses against Kentucky and Colorado they did basically zippy. Pretty clear recipe to beating them is defending those two. This will be a huge game for the Boopie/Hildreth/Sallis trio to prove they can stop good guards as well as score.

There's only so much we can hope to get out of the Omier/Poplar/George vs. Reid/Carr/Keller matchups.
 
I do think the timing of this game is pretty good for Wake. Miami has only played one road game so far, and it was in November. Add in that they are coming off a high-intensity, important win, and I think that there's a reasonable chance that Miami starts sloppy.

I think Boopie vs Pack is the matchup to watch, and if either of those guys dominates the other I'd expect their team to win
 
They are very good... but beatable, I think. In their matchup against Colorado, which they lost by 27, the Buffs were +12 in rebounding. In their matchup against Kentucky, which they lost by 22, Kentucky turned them over 7 more times, and had 23 fast break points. Seems like these things are Miami's achilles heel(s). If we can win the rebounding and turnover battles (and keep them from shooting 55-60%), I think we have a great shot.
 
deacon14 said:
I don't think that's at all what is happening. Presumably Kenpom has evaluated the average performance increase/decrease from their previous school to their new school for transfers, and uses that to predict how the new team will do with the transfers. There's a reason why Forbes is viewed as one of the best at the transfer portal right now, because the average transfer doesn't improve anywhere near as much as the recent Wake guys have.

And as Pilchard said, all of the preseason weighting is gone by midseason, so it genuinely does not matter in terms of what we care about, which is having a good NCAAT resume on Selection Sunday.
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so what's the point? just for fun?
 
They aren't trying to measure the same thing Barca. Come on, you're not this dense.
 
Watching them last night reminded me of how well they are coached. In my humble opinion, they looked sloppy with the ball for long stretches. I bet we are going to press them from the jump and try to limit how much time they spend in the half court.

Boopie, Cam and Sallis need to attack the rim with reckless abandon. Other than that, we need them to be luke warm from three. They will score points, no doubt - we just can’t have back breaking transition threes rain down on us. And someone else said it already, but we get one shot at them this year and we are due. Deacs by 8.
 
PaddyWF said:
Miami has some soft spots. They have been very good at home, but their OOC schedule was weaker than ours. They got their doors blown off against the two best teams they did play - Kentucky and Colorado. Both were away from home.

They lost by 20+ twice already, and the Deacs have yet to lose by more than seven points. And that was before Reid was starting.

Their 2PT defensive percentage is really bad. Reid and Carr should have a lot of scoring opportunities in the paint.
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TITCR…especially the last part. Attack the rim and look for dump offs and put backs and feed the post. If Miami beats us it will be because they get hot from three and it flips the tempo of our offense. And we need to put Hunter on Poplar.
 
not sure what the word is on Poplar for Sat. but would be a big benefit if they are still without him. I would wager Omier is not going to go off against the Deacs like he did against PJ and tigers as you are going to see the diff. 2 inches makes as Efton will control the paint and not allow as many slashing shots by him in the paint and think Carr has a big bounce back game as he and Reid should dominate the paint and force the Canes to sag in and hopefully open up for a lot of 3s from our guards. I also think you will start to see why Efton will start to differentiate himself as a defensive diff. maker vs. other centers which you saw in the 2nd half vs. BC, but think you will see it for the whole game as he won't be going against another 7 footer but a 5' 7" forward. I also don't think the Canes will shoot 46% from 3 on the road and likely to come down to earth. Think we will only be up a handful of points at half, but think we wear them down in the paint in 2nd half and pull away for a double digit victory.
 
saltydeac said:
not sure what the word is on Poplar for Sat. but would be a big benefit if they are still without him. I would wager Omier is not going to go off against the Deacs like he did against PJ and tigers as you are going to see the diff. 2 inches makes as Efton will control the paint and not allow as many slashing shots by him in the paint and think Carr has a big bounce back game as he and Reid should dominate the paint and force the Canes to sag in and hopefully open up for a lot of 3s from our guards. I also think you will start to see why Efton will start to differentiate himself as a defensive diff. maker vs. other centers which you saw in the 2nd half vs. BC, but think you will see it for the whole game as he won't be going against another 7 footer but a 5' 7" forward. I also don't think the Canes will shoot 46% from 3 on the road and likely to come down to earth. Think we will only be up a handful of points at half, but think we wear them down in the paint in 2nd half and pull away for a double digit victory.
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that would be 6' 7" otherwise Efton would go for 50.
 
The delta between Miami's 3PT% offense (41.6) and 3PT% defense (27.2) is crazy. They are top-10 in both categories, I wonder if that has ever happened before.
 
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