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MBB Game 17: Florida State @ LJVM - Wednesday 9 pm - ACCN

Pilchard

Pilchard

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On Wednesday, 5-11 (3-2) FSU visits the LJVM for a late-night contest against our Deacs.

2022-23 Noles: FSU currently sits at #161 nationally because of a horrid start to the season, but they are rounding into form. Among the many ACC teams with abysmal starts this year, FSU stated the season 1-9 with losses to #207 Stetson, #131 Troy, #160 Siena and #85 Nebraska (by 17). Since a tight loss at UVA, FSU is 4-2 with wins over L'ville, ND and GT. Last time out, the Noles worked GT 75-64. The Noles are winless on the road this year losing at UCF, UVA and Duke.

The Analytics (conference games only stats; ranks are #1 to #15):

Offense #6 - 105.7 - WF #5 106.6

Strengths:

FT%: #2 (80%) - WF #10 (73%)
TO%: #5 (14.9%) - WF #10 (16.8%)

Weaknesses:

2PT FG%: #10 (47.9%) - WF #7 (48.4%)
FTA per FGA: #13 - WF #3

Defense #6 - 102.6 - WF #12 108.8

Strengths:

2PT FG%: #4 (45%) - WF #14 (58%)
FTA per FGA: #6 - WF #14

Weaknesses:

3PT FG% #14 (39%) - WF #9 (34%)
Effective FG% #9 (50.4) - WF DFL (54.5%)

Team analytics:
Height: FSU #3 (in the nation)
Experience: #224
Bench minutes #306

Roster:

FSU has had injuries and eligibility issues. Currently, starter and KY transfer Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury. Also, the NCAA suspended top 50 recruit Baba Miller 6-11 center for 16 games for accepting $3K in benefits, which seems ludicrous in light of college sports being awash in NIL payouts (Baba Miller is from Spain). Well, the 16 game suspension ends......... um... ended. So, Miller will make his FSU debut this Wednesday against WF. Doubt Miller will start, but he will play and of course, FSU will be as close to full strength as they have been all season on Wednesday. In the win over GT, FSU started:

6-5 Caleb Mills: Houston transfer; leads the Noles in steals and TOs; 2nd in assists13 ppg; double figures each of the last six; struggling from 3 28%
6-5 Darin Green: UCF transfer: 14 ppg; 42% from 3; 18 points in win over GT; from CLT
6-6 Jalen Warley: soph; top 50 recruit; doesn't score (hasn't scored double figures in a game this year); 27% from 3; leads team in assists; 2nd in steals
6-7 Matthew Cleveland; soph; 5 star top 25 recruit; leading scorer (14 ppg) and rebounder (7 rpg); 43% from 3; has played well recently (19 points 12 boards in win over ND; 21 points 12 boards in win over GT)
6-10 Cameron Corhen: frosh; 8 ppg; 3 rpg; started the last 3 games; had a season high 18 points and 7 boards in the win over ND; may lose minutes now that Baba Miller is active

FSU Bench:

6-11 Baba Miller: as noted above 4 star recruit will be making his college debut against WF
7-4 Naheem McLeod: has started 11 games; really tall; leads team in blocks; doesn't shoot the 3; shoots bricks if he is not dunking 44% from the FT line

Projections: KP projects a 80-71 WF win in 71 possessions; Torvik a 82-71 win. Although FSU's overall record is embarrassing, WF and FSU are currently in a six-way tie for 4th in the ACC at 3-2. So, a win for either team is big.

FSU is better than their record and their current power rating. Before the season started, the ACC writers picked FSU to finish 5th and WF 9th (FWIW, Clemson was picked to finish 10th, and they are currently leading the ACC and KP now projects the Tigers to finish first in the conference regular season race). While Fletcher is out, Baba Miller is now back, and this FSU team is starting to find its way. As a result the Noles are closer to the team that was projected to be in the mix for an NCAAT bid, rather than the team that lost to mid and low majors to start the year. As a result, not ready to pounce on WF ATS.

Even so, got to love WF at the LJVM. Hate to break the news to DR, but since the start of last year, when Coach Forbes started to really shape the direction of the WF basketball program, WF is 25-2 at home (even without a teensy on campus arena); KP ranks WF as having the 6th best home court edge of all 362 college teams, and three of the home courts rated ahead of WF have decided elevation edges. Doubt there are many programs with a better home record over that span. Since the start of last season, FSU is 4-10 on the road (0-3 this season). While it may be a battle and not sure if WF can squeeze out a double digit win, think the Deacs take the Noles on Wednesday. Wouldn't think about taking the Deacs ATS unless the line drops below 7. Just get a win and move up the standings.
 
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Not an easy game. I said after 3 or 4 games that FSU and BC are nightmares for the ACC. Louisville is bad enough that it doesn't really matter, they're not going to beat anyone of consequence, but both FSU and BC were killed by injuries and absences to start the year and are way better than their records show. They're both capable of handing ACC teams with tournament hopes a resume damaging loss. 2-0 in our next 2 is both somewhat difficult and critical.

In the way the selection committee now works, a loss to either FSU or BC really wouldn't completely change our tournament hopes (good wins heavily outweigh bad losses), but it still would help a lot to go 2-0.
 
FSU with another tall group. Hope we can match up well enough. I have not watched them play this year. Feels like a physical bunch with all that size.
 
Looking for 1 lower level ticket. I see several on Stubhub but would rather get it from a Deacon fan.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Must win by double digits imo.

We need to start moving up in the NET.

A loss tomorrow night is drastically different than a loss at BC on Saturday. Both need to be W's, but tomorrow would be terrible.
Click to expand...

Agree that it would feel terrible, but the caveat is that FSU could run off a ton of victories between now and the end of the season and it wouldn't look so bad.

But I just want to win.

One game at a time, but that home game vs. Clemson feels like a biggie.
 
Monsanto sat out the App game on a DNP-CD which was met with lots of hand-wringing here

since that game, Torvik rates Monsanto as the #14 player in the ACC and #2 on the team behind Appleby

it seems the message was received
 
thatguy2016 said:
Monsanto sat out the App game on a DNP-CD which was met with lots of hand-wringing here

since that game, Torvik rates Monsanto as the #14 player in the ACC and #2 on the team behind Appleby

it seems the message was received
Click to expand...
cool dunk bro, but had we lost to app state the message would be a round trip ticket to a #3 seed in the NIT
 
Strickland33 said:
cool dunk bro, but had we lost to app state the message would be a round trip ticket to a #3 seed in the NIT
Click to expand...
more of a 3, since we're talking about Monsanto, bro

had Monsanto kept playing like he did vs. LSU and Clemson, the message would be a losing overall record
 
hypotheticals gonna hypothetical

as they do

just happy we didn't lose to app and tank our season so that forbes could make a point
 
Forbes is also happy he didn't lose to app and hypothetically tank the season

maybe Forbes made the right call with the calculated risk
 
thatguy2016 said:
Monsanto sat out the App game on a DNP-CD which was met with lots of hand-wringing here

since that game, Torvik rates Monsanto as the #14 player in the ACC and #2 on the team behind Appleby

it seems the message was received
Click to expand...

Sometimes other parts of the body deliver a message to the brain better than the ears.
 
Considering coming in from Durham for this with dad. Just buy cheapest possible tickets and sit wherever?
 
Once he decided to sit him, he couldn’t go back on his word, or he’d lose all credibility. I’m sure he figured that the rest of the team could take care of App. He was barely right.
 
CheesePritchard said:
Considering coming in from Durham for this with dad. Just buy cheapest possible tickets and sit wherever?
Click to expand...
Yep you’ll be able to sit anywhere upstairs per usual. With it being a 9pm game I’m sure you won’t have a probably finding seats downstairs as well
 
DeacDaddy said:
Once he decided to sit him, he couldn’t go back on his word, or he’d lose all credibility. I’m sure he figured that the rest of the team could take care of App. He was barely right.
Click to expand...
Agree with this. Should not have been close.

Monsanto needed to expand his game. He is clearly capable of it. Forbes looked like a guy that tore his hair out knowing what Monsanto was doing in practice but not in games. Benching did not teach him to stop being a "shoot a 3 the second you get it no matter where you are" to a well rounded team player.
 
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